Concerning Developments

The Death of Development Trump's Tariffs mark the end of the dominant model of Global Development following its long decline. What now?

My article expanding on this: open.substack.com/pub/concerni...

Both strategically and economically terrible, huge tariffs against Vietnam and others will achieve nothing for the U.S., but it will destroy the ability of these countries to achieve significant development for their millions of citizens through export manufactures to America. #Trump #Tariffs

#Development #Trump #Tariffs #Trade #GlobalEconomy #TradeWar #Economics #Geopolitics

The Death of Development Trump's Tariffs mark the end of the dominant model of Global Development following its long decline. What now?

The post-war development era is over. The challenges are immense. But crisis forces adaptation. Maybe the end of the old, flawed model is the necessary catalyst for building more resilient, equitable, and sustainable paths for the 21st century. My full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/concerni...

Bold rethinking is needed. Harness the green transition as a development strategy. Not just resource extraction 2.0, but new global arrangements for shared, inclusive supply chains backed by fair finance & tech sharing. #GreenTransition #ClimateAction #IndustrialPolicy

So, what's the response? If it's just retaliatory tariffs & pouring money into defense while ignoring poverty, climate, health, we go nowhere constructive. The end of the old model demands fundamental rethinking, not just reaction.

The fallout isn't just economic. Expect grim political consequences. Economic devastation fuels the right-wing populism already rising since 2008, often providing cover for oligarchic interests to capture state resources amid nationalist rhetoric (sound familiar?). Fragmentation serves them well.

Tariffs on labour-intensive goods (clothing from Vietnam etc) are particularly ludicrous: these jobs are unattractive to US workers, consumers don’t want the higher prices. Tariffs on Vietnam etc won’t fix US trade imbalances. The US doesn't produce many goods these nations can afford at scale.

Now, these tariffs ruin that fragile model. They pull up the ladder for countries like Vietnam trying to follow the path.
FDI export platforms is undermined. And the damage is reciprocal – hitting US consumers & supply chains.

For decades, the model was manufacture for export: poor nations use low costs to sell goods (esp. to US), hoping to climb the ladder. But it was always hard, as Oks & Williams showed, recent "global progress" was hugely skewed by China. Remove China -> stagnation overall. The foundation was fragile

The Death of Development Trump's Tariffs mark the end of the dominant model of Global Development following its long decline. What now?

Trump's tariffs aren't just another trade spat; they may be the final blow to the post-war global development model. I argue it marks the 'Death of Development' as we knew it. 🧵

open.substack.com/pub/concerni...

#GlobalDevelopment #TradeWar #Trump #Tariffs #Economics #Politics

Couldn’t agree more with the FT calling Trump's tariffs an astonishing act of self-harm. These actions amount to a voluntary retreat from US global influence, and fits perfectly with the patterns of hegemonic decline (Arrighi) I detailed here: open.substack.com/pub/concerni...

#Trump #Tariffs

Trump's tariffs just killed the post-war development model. It was already dying (h/t Oks & Williams, American Affairs). What comes next? My dive into the fallout & potential new paths like green industrialization:
open.substack.com/pub/concerni...

#GlobalDevelopment #Economics #TradeWar #Politics