Sian Owen

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These large negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process. Comparing these with contemporary forecasts – providing a rare macro example to complement the burgeoning microliterature of social science predictions – shows that these forecasts were accurate over a 5-year horizon, but they underestimated the impact over a decade.

Read 'em and weep. (www.nber.org/system/files...)

"But we must compete with the oth-"

That's just it. You don't. You are THE public broadcaster. No other body shares your mission. Why add to the noise?

The BBC has an opportunity to say "you've heard all the breathless gossip - tune in at 6pm for the facts". To bring light rather than heat.

Daft idea now abandoned. What a waste of everyone's time.

Find your inner Stella today

the BBC should apologise with a montage of all the times Trump showed support for 6 Jan and they should get the person who does the end of World Cup montage to do it

Donald Trump’s demand for a billion dollars from the BBC comes from a local Florida law firm. It was sent to the wrong address, and the writer didn’t know what ‘salacious’ really means: ‘Due to their salacious nature, the fabricated statements that were aired by the BBC…’

A radio programme like the Shipping Forecast but it’s called Bin Day and it just reads out every single council in the country’s bin schedule

I've always felt that Johnson and Farage put self-interest over the national interest - hence their dallying with Putin and his oligarchs. But directly colluding with a foreign government to take down the BBC feels like an act of supreme treachery

Actually speechless at Stormzy’s progress today. He woke up and decided to attack the week.

Listen out for the cutest little bark ever ❤️

The BBC’s Attempts to Appease the 'Right-Wing Coup' Against It Are Now Seeding Its Own Destruction By attempting to appease those forces seeking to destroy them, the BBC has helped trigger a crisis that now threatens its very future, argues Adam Bienkov

When Boris Johnson was Prime Minister one of his senior advisers confided to me that one of the only things in politics his boss actually cared about was “killing off the BBC”.

Five years on, and it is a campaign that appears to be finally coming to fruition.

bylinetimes.com/2025/11/10/t...

The BBC is tearing itself apart to appease publications and politicians who want to see it die.

An absolutely kamikaze approach to running a media organisation. I can't see it ending well.

Chris Mason is what happens when a Hospital Radio DJ, whose sole qualification appears to be a sort of soporific inoffensiveness, is somehow promoted to BBC Politics Editor - a position that demands unflinching insight, objectivity, and sharpness. It's like a puddle trying to be the ocean.

Text says: Alan. What a moment. We can't tell you how grateful we are. We've adored watching you over the last three weeks, all the most so with that glimmer of hope that if you did win, it might just means something big for our small charity. And you did it. As our faithful Patron for 9 years, your commitment, compassion and drive to bring hope to children and families gacing this agressive cancer have been nothing short of transformational. As a small charity with a big mission, you know how much this means to us. For many years we've known you to be generous, warm, empathic and unfalteringly kind, and we're so pleased that the nation agrees with us on that. Now we promise to do you proud. Our commitment to you is that through research, we will find better treatments and ultimately a cure for every child facing Neuroblastoma. Alan, thank you.

Lovely message from @neuroblastomauk.bsky.social thanking Alan Carr.

Shared on their X.

#CelebrityTraitors

Holy moly! I didn't get Lily Allen tickets, but...

I did win TWO awards: Best News Story and Best Opinion Writer in the 2025 Freelance Journalism Awards.

Huge thank you to @freelancingfor.bsky.social for organising these and to your lovely judges. I am so honoured and proud to be named this year

Omg I’m dying 😂😂😂…so…So Emily Austin, a right wing 'influencer' who works for Bibi and the GOP, launched 'Hot Girls for Cuomo'.

Guess who didn't bother to register the URL when she did that? What do you think Hot Girls for Cuomo dot com leads to now?... 😄 Enjoy.

[ HotGirlsforCuomo.com ]

Reform-run Council Cancels Christmas... And, at significant cost.

I would say you couldn't make it up. But unfortunately Reform can and did. ~AA

Football fan killed with single punch which caused catastrophic brain injuries A judge told 51-year-old Steven Vonk that because of his "unprovoked, gratuitous thuggery" a man's life had been cruelly cut short

A man killed a pub customer with a single powerful punch to the head which led to catastrophic brain injuries, a court has heard. Steven Vonk turned and walked away after flooring his victim, then texted a friend to say: "Can't say I'm sorry because I'm not."
www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...

After a week of faffing around the @dailymail.co.uk have agreed to apologise. Here it is. Fingers crossed for fewer lies/smears dressed up as news in future

100 per cent this ⬇️

On the left, the refurbished Lincoln bathroom. On the right, picture I took in Saddam Hussein's palace in Basra in 2005.

We've worked so hard for this moment since saving his life.

I could punch the air I am so happy. Prepare to have a huge grin on your face!! Look at Stormzy go!

Artes Mundi 11 review – smug, stagey, up-itself nonsense for art world wazzocks Six international artists vie for the prize – and none of them seem interested in engaging visitors. I had more fun on Llandudno pier’s ghost train

Artes Mundi 11 review – smug, stagey, up-itself nonsense for art world wazzocks

I've just done so... it is incredibly easy - just put in your membership number and away you go! Thank you @ottoenglish.bsky.social for doing this!

Good question for the BBC and its board.

A week before my wedding, I woke up with facial paralysis ‘Apart from having to drink my pints through a straw, occasionally needing to wear an eyepatch and the classical guitarist nobody could hear, I wouldn’t have changed a thing about the big day.’ - Nial...

This was so witty and human. What an absolute hero. open.substack.com/pub/bestforb...

London's thieves are burying phones in flowerbeds The police don't take much interest in returning the stolen devices when they're dug up — so London Centric decided to do it.

Terrific yarn in London Centric, as per:

King Charles has just reclaimed a colossal statue that his mum gave to Kew Gardens in 1963. The royal family's mantra seems to be "for the few, not the many"https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/monarchy/71444/curious-case-of-king-charles-and-the-statue

Then we eventually get to paragraph 13 in the Sky story:

He’s a massive racist…

And that’s all they say about it 🤷🏼‍♀️

The BBC give more details

3/9