Dr Tom Harris

Natural sinks beginning to fail, at least in net terms as more natural emissions grow.

Paying the Iron Price Iron is a critical part of life in the oceans. It's a limiting nutrient for primary production which sits at the base of the food chain and absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere. Should we be adding more?

More on OIF: drtomharris.substack.com/p/paying-the...

In addition, they emphasise the critical importance of engaging key coastal communities and rights-holder groups near the region of iron fertilisation, and consider concerns and input as part of the experimental design.

Although they were not seen in prior studies, potential concerns include deoxygenation, production of other greenhouse gases, or the onset of a harmful algal bloom.

The paper sets out a set of priorities, protocols, safeguards and monitoring practices for a new study as well as a suggested site in the Gulf of Alaska.

Targeted OIF could also help cloud formation creating more albedo, cooling and rainfall in some regions.

There is no doubt that to return to a more stable climate, both emissions reductions and carbon removal will be required. OIF is one of the potential tools. The paper argues for larger, longer studies with rigorous monitoring and safeguards.

Plankton are limited by nutrient supply in the oceans, especially iron. Many areas of ocean are iron deficient. OIF involves introducing relatively tiny amounts of the nutrient to allow more plankton growth and hence carbon capture.
#climatechange #CDR #carbondioxideremoval #OIF

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Scientists outline the case for next-generation Ocean Iron Fertilisation (OIF) field trials in a new publication. OIF is a marine carbon dioxide removal strategy which enhances natural plankton blooms allowing them to capture and sequester CO2.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....

The presumed upcoming El Nino will help cement and quantify global warming acceleration, showing that 2C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
See Another El Nino Already? mailchi.mp/caa/another-... Also available on Substack: jimehansen.substack.com/p/another-el...

💻 Current bottom-up emission models for natural flooded ecosystems miss critical dynamics.
🌐 Many widely used models underestimated wetland and inland-water emissions and their dynamics during the surge, highlighting urgent gaps in monitoring wet ecosystems and microbial methane emission processes.

🏭 Fossil fuel and fire emissions were not the main drivers.
🤔 Changes in fossil fuel and biomass-burning methane emissions were comparatively small and cannot explain the observed global methane spike.

🌧️ Exceptionally wet conditions during a prolonged La Niña (2020–2023) boosted methane emissions from wetlands and inland waters, especially in tropical Africa and Southeast Asia, with additional increases in Arctic regions.

😷 COVID-19–related air pollution changes played a central role.
Reductions in nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) during pandemic lockdowns reduced OH levels, allowing methane to accumulate faster in the atmosphere.
🌿 Climate-driven wetland emissions amplified the surge.

The key findings are:
🧪 This early-2020s methane surge was mainly caused by a weakened atmospheric chemistry sink, not runaway emissions.
🌍 A temporary drop in hydroxyl (OH) radicals—the atmosphere's primary methane "cleanser" explains about 80–85% of the year-to-year variability in methane growth.

Why methane surged in the atmosphere during the early 2020s The atmospheric methane (CH4) growth rate surged after 2019, peaking at 16.2 parts per billion per year (ppb year−1) in 2020 before declining to 8.6 ppb year−1 in 2023. Using multiple atmospheric inve...

The Methane spike in the early 2020’s has been explained in two new studies. A combination of weakened atmospheric removal and increased emissions from warming wetlands, rivers, lakes, and agricultural land are to blame.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... 
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
#methane

Today, a new report from University of Exeter and Carbon Tracker shows how the economic models used by governments, central banks and investors are increasingly understating risks as we head toward 2°C.

Read the full report here: greenfuturessolutions.com/news/recalib...

Yes they are, especially permafrost. So it's nice that there is at least some biomes that are absorbing some more, even if it doesn't balance the overall emissions.

The reduction in N2O lifespan is about 1.5 years per decade.

The stratosphere cools as the troposphere warms since less infrared radiation from the Earth’s surface reaches the upper atmosphere, blocked by the GHGs in the troposphere.

Both processes act as negative feedbacks to further warming.

Nitrous oxide is a long lived gas with a half life of over 100 years, but it breaks down in the stratosphere. The breakdown process is increased by stratospheric cooling and changes in circulation.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
#nitrousoxide #stratosphere

This disagrees with a previous shorter term US study and also suggests that data collected from a wider range of areas is essential to gain the full picture.

Trend analysis of methane uptake in 13 forest soils based on up to 24 years of field measurements in south-west Germany Methane (CH₄) plays a crucial role in global climate dynamics as a potent greenhouse gas. Forest soils are the most important terrestrial CH4-sinks, y…

The German forest study analysed data collected at 13 plots over 24 years and found that as forest floor soils dry and warm, they absorb more methane due to the increased pore size which makes the gas more accessible to microbes in the soil.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#methane #forests

Two new studies show positive signs of how warming is increasing the destruction of the number 2 and number 3 Green House Gases. Forest soils are absorbing more methane and nitrous oxide break down in the stratosphere is accelerating.
#Greenhousegases #climatechange

A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping This report is the outcome of the Nordic Council of Minister’s sponsored workshop arranged in October 21-24, 2025 in Helsinki and Rovaniemi, Finland as part of Finland’s council presidency theme resil...

Just out today: The report “A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping” reviews the current state of science on the risk of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) shutdown. 🌊
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...

I examine the bridge between the scientific data and the cultural erosion of mountain life. We are currently "borrowing" winter through technology, but as the cryospheric foundation of the Sustainable Development Goals thaws, the structural integrity of our global climate strategy is at stake.

🌿 Biodiversity: We are witnessing a "summit trap" where alpine species have nowhere higher to go, leading to accelerated biodiversity loss.
🛕 Cultural Heritage: Indigenous communities are facing the intangible loss of identities built on the "permanence" of ice.

This isn't just about the future of winter sports; it is a systemic threat to:
🚰 Water Security: Mountains act as "natural water towers" for billions. Shifting from snow to rain disrupts seasonal storage, threatening downstream water security for nearly 25% of the global population.

Recent research from the University of Portsmouth confirms a critical phenomenon: Elevation-Dependent Climate Change (EDCC). Our mountain regions are warming up to 0.21°C faster than surrounding lowlands, accelerating the impacts.
#climatechange #MountainWarming #WinterOlympics #cryosphere

Going Downhill: The Olympic Race Against a Receding Snow Line How elevation-dependent climate change is melting the mountain cryosphere, threatening high-altitude biodiversity, water security and pushing the Winter Olympics to the brink of extinction.

As the world turns its eyes toward the Winter Olympics, a more sobering reality is unfolding across the global mountain cryosphere. Our mountains are not just playgrounds; they are the world’s most critical, and most fragile, life-support systems.

drtomharris.substack.com/p/going-down...

Great Frankly Nate, very thought provoking. You are absolutely right about the wide boundary constrains and the blinkers that the industry don't seem to be able to look beyond.
Some AI art you might like - I call it "The day after AGI"