Joel Wertheimer

I don't know, I think allowing a gulf state to have a military base in Idaho will be extremely unpopular and something Democrats can use to good effect. Can somebody remind me if the United States having airbases in the Arabian peninsula ever caused any issues?

If you're a Dem leaning DOT staffer, are you actually mad at them for shutting down the government and you getting laid off or are you thinking the shutdown is just an excuse to do what they want anyway?

Vought seems to think Dems care about layoffs in response to the shutdown but it's a total misread of the situationbecause they've already shown they'd do it anyway with DOGE and they killed USAID illegally, so there aren't Federal employees who think there's a deal to be made.

Would it have been better with an early shutdown

I dunno. Not wrong!

@econberger.bsky.social where would this be on the chart?

Kellen Moore, good at the job of being an OC.

But also yes. Harris would have had an easier time because there wasn’t the possibility of Trump.

His majority was thin and not completely unresponsive to public opinion though, and elections are a year away at most?

Kind of a speed run of US post 9/11.

I think this is true but I do think worth noting that Israeli public opinion moved a lot more towards wanting the war to end over the last year. American leadership matters but Israel does in fact have its own politics and autonomy. bsky.app/profile/exum...

What this image presupposes is that the ravens will get a turnover again in 2025.

Okay it will be darkly funny if Bari Weiss joins CBS at exactly the time that the issue of Israel becomes a lot less salient.

If they dropped her age and put "stood up to trump" and dropped all the climate stuff i bet it is much better.

Eastern District of Virginia grand juries showing what many people already know: the grand jury protection is basically worthless.

Remember that in 2014 republicans hated their party also, Cantor lost a primary. Hating your party is a sign that your voters are really engaged.

53%. Anyway basically the tradeoff between regression to the mean kicks in. My guess is 54% Dems in 2pv (accounting for uncontested seats) in part because LV>RV

when people don't vote, we win.

Eh, 2017/2018 was the outlier. This is from @davidshor.bsky.social using q1, I don't know what q3 would say, but to me the key thing is the slope really isn't that large. It'll end up around 54% of 2pv for Dems because it usually does.

Worse, but of course in 2016 we'd just won the presidency by 2.1 rather than 2024 losing it by 1.5 so in terms of swing from national environment it's probably about the same?

Feel like people aren't afraid enough of AI video generation capabilities www.instagram.com/reel/DPEqBL0...

But also people really are now talking about the ACA a lot more and the shutdown helped make that happen.

Just to put some recent news stories and salience levels into perspective.

This is just not a headline Dems were getting two weeks ago. bsky.app/profile/atru...

oh my god finally fiftyplusone.news/latest-polls

And right now I think there are two options, Democrats win and health care gets extended and at the very least we get a lot of headlines that are "democrats win health care fight." Other option is they kill the filibuster in order to kill health care subsidies, which would be perfect politics.

I disagree with this because of salience. Every day politics is about healthcare is a good day for Democrats. Zero days were about healthcare until the shutdown and now lots of days are about healthcare.

Really hoping silicon graphite anodes make 600 mile range a reality sooner rather than later

Real house prices are really high and mortgage rates would have to get really low to get affordability back to 2015-2019 levels. Unclear that housing will save us. Home ATM might help but you need a lot of mortgage origination.

This seems wrong to me. One, a risk off cycle has broader wealth effect implications than top decile right now given breadth of American wealth in equities right now not to mention crypto holdings. Two, unemployment did go up in 2001 despite concentration of stock crash in tech. Three...