Joel Wertheimer

Will second this. CASPR is really cool.

Oh for sure. But if there's money to be made by being a large institutional market maker with low risk seems like there would be people who do it.

They have a market maker program is it possible it's the market makers that are responsible for that volume?

Ahem: As I said in my column wertwhile.substack.com/p/dont-over-...

Klepto biathlete? Sociopath?

Exactly. There’s a really famous Bob Burnquist skateboarding run from the early X Games before everybody had optimized on big tricks and it really is just more beautiful and I don’t know what you do about it but it would be nice for people in the sport to think about.

Annoying (complimentary) to have read @add-hawk.bsky.social’s new book The Score right before the Olympics because now I’m watching all of these sports like snowboard big air and thinking about how we’ve lost what was beautiful about snowboarding by needing objective scores.

i forget who made it but it cracks me up lol

(Yes that February in 2015 was really cold)

It is true! Cumulative through January NYC hadn't had this many heating degree days starting in November since 2013/2014 and depending on how the rest of this month goes might be the coldest winter we've had in 20 years.

All I’ll say is we didn’t have a winter like this for all of Bill de Blasio's eight years since he put the fear of FUCKING GOD into the groundhogs.

What is the psxg of the shots/keeper psxg +/- im a bit curious about knuckleball theory

I certainly think that we could have larger immigration flows without political issue if the border did not have large flows and because of that we really should do border security even though I don’t find it a particular concern personally.

But in policy you can’t separate them out entirely. Humane interior enforcement seemingly does impact border crossing and we need to figure that one out to not end up back where we are with Hitler particles everywhere.

Early returns on Opus 4.6 are that it’s very impressive and the writing style worse and more cloying weakening one of the things I preferred about Claude.

I thought this one was the most interesting just to see the elasticity by platform.

Super cool index here!

Will it not move the median seat left compared to national average? I tend to just think that's the important thing even if they save seats in a wave which to your point they may.

In fairness there was some exit as revolt www.dirllp.com/who-we-are

Democrats get aggressive on remapping congressional lines The minority party is showing teeth in New York, Illinois and Virginia ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Hakeem is obviously pushing on this and has been for months. www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

And trivia games can really catch fire: think of the HQ Trivia and GeoGuessr. So there may be a real opportunity to run quiz games with some cultural and some political questions in advance of the 2026 and 2028 elections (esp the latter, since it's national).

Research Obsession Day 1: What do we know about the impact of creators? And what does it have to do with Elon Musk?

Featuring this incredible research by @eunjikim.bsky.social, Nate Lubin & others: arxiv.org/pdf/2512.15401

For all the complaints about Dems being weak and not fighting, on the thing republicans actually tried to do to defeat democracy that Dems used to fold on, they’ve punched back so hard redistricting will be a win.

Fact check on this thread: completely true.

I wrote about the crypto crash and why this is the worst crypto winter in the industry's history.

Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here www.bloomberg.com/account/news...

Agreed, I don't think of it as bullish. Feels like 5 parties buying into a poker tournament with a 20-50% rake, like a $200B buy in and a $600B payout or something

Google can build more compute per dollar because they design their own chips with Broadcom, sell it to their competitors, and have more FCF than anybody. If scaling laws are real and persist, I think they can just swim farther than anybody else without having to worry about the way back.

So when does Saylor have real problems @peark.es?

Yesterday I made the analogy of Google's strategic decisions on CapEx to the Gattaca scene where Ethan Hawke's character reveals he won their games of swimming chicken because he did not save any energy for the way back.

People are going to be really mad that the ask here isn’t abolishing any deportation ever (which would be my choice if it was just up to me) but this is a very calculated list of reasonable asks that Republicans will lose their minds over, reinforcing revulsion in the American lizard brain.