Joel Wertheimer

This is why the images at the end of the match, with Son overwhelmed by emotion, were so powerful. The fact he had stayed through the hard times made his eventual triumph, leading Spurs to the promised land, even more emphatic. His journey was Tottenham’s journey. His vindication was Tottenham’s vindication. His tears were Tottenham’s tears. Few players get to leave after a moment this perfect or this fulfilling. His 10-year arc at Spurs was complete. But even fewer players deserve the perfect ending like Son did. Because he embodied the joy of football played well, the shared thrill as he burst past a defender, the graceful way he found the corner of the net. But also because he embodied the joy of people. He never hid his emotions on the pitch, or his love for his team-mates or colleagues or the fans who supported him. When he scored, or Spurs won, he radiated happiness, as if he felt he was the luckiest man in the world to be getting these goals for this team. And he wanted fans to share that luck and share that joy with him, too.

Great Son capstone piece from @jackpittbrooke.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/athletic/652...

I think the AI investment boom ends when the other big companies accept OpenAI is the winner and is going to be a large consumer scale company that coexists with Google, Meta etc.

Seems right. Presumably state and local governments were finally able to adjust pay to catch up with private sector?

The extent to which the US is not on the same school calendar is so wild. Still a month to go in the northeast

I guess follow enough people and you’ll find enough with your same birthday. Happy birthday!

It's a good amount but not out of the ordinary. portfolio-strategy.apsec.com/2024/08/16/a...

Faster cheaper better public goods create jobs! Connecting people in outer boroughs to manhattan faster creates jobs!

I really do worry about the long end if the Fed cuts right now.

And I think if you want to avoid the consolidation of fascism the focus should be on a recession hitting in 2027/8 not right now.

I'm not convinced the Fed cutting is good for Trump is the thing. People hate inflation more than is rational in a lot of ways, and lower unemployment and higher inflation might be bad for Trump.

Of course, Trump's pressure on the Fed means that cuts might not give him the effects he wants since the impact on long rates from a Fed that looks like it's losing independence would also be potentially bad.

Very strange how Trump's obviously egregious pressure on the Fed and stupid tariffs are scrambling sides on rate cuts but faltering labor market with mildly elevated inflation is a time liberals would normally want the Fed to cut. The Fed should cut!

If the labor market is being impacted by changes in immigration flows, which I think it is, are average wage growth measures going to be impacted by on average lower income people leaving market? OTOH, ECI which should control for these things, didn't decelerate.

screenshot of cnbc showing stocks red

Well at least the labor market is at steady state and is keeping up with labor supply

I didn't say that though? I just said that I wasn't sanguine about relying on per capita measures/living standards because I think steady increases in nominal output are vital to an economy for a variety of reasons

I agree, but those were long term and knowable trends that were priced in. And it's not as though they weren't problematic trends for Japan for a long time! Still it's the population shock that I think causes problems.

It's definitely the case that measures of growth will need to reflect slower population growth but earnings and contracts and a whole number of things depend on raw growth so I am not quite so sanguine.

the reason trump is doing this is not to raise money or to remedy some perceived trade imbalance.

he is doing this to destroy Brazillian democracy, because he and his entire party are ideologically opposed to human freedom.

smaller places have more variability in the measurement from Apartment List and there are a lot of small metros in Texas with large Hispanic populations and randomneess in the measurement which is diluting the analysis I think?

In the top 50 metros, you do observe a correlation between how much lower rent is in the metro over the past 3 months than expected and the Hispanic share of the population. BUT that relationship falls away when you expand it to larger list 168 metro areas. BUT

Following up on home prices/Hispanic share. I used Apartment List's latest rent report. Then I looked at the residual for July rent based on the trend in rent through March. Then I compared that residual to the Hispanic share of the metro. @peark.es @conorsen.bsky.social

My basic view is, if somebody is fiddling with the data we'll know because 1) a civil servant will say something and/or 2) the attempts to fiddle will be obviously internally inconsistent because the people doing it won't be smart enough to make it look right.

I love Subway Takes and enjoy Kareem a lot and actually thought this episode got so close to exposing what's so dumb about gentrification discourse but instead they just didn't get there. It is an explicit call for segregation!

The post literally says "could be spurious!" It's not statistics abuse to observe relationships that pique interest.

Yeah that's where I'm at too, not a strong belief but rental market and ownership market can't be entirely separated obviously. "Oh you're not raising my rent and interest rates are 7% at these prices? I'll keep holding out."

Relationship holds without any FL/CA cities

Relationship holds without FL/CA cities fwiw and holds controlling for plant hardiness zones which i just learned about.

Interesting. Fwiw substituted .5 for a b and 0 for an a to create a linear scale.

My hypothesis is that demand is being greatly weakened by immigration enforcement yes

The rental market and the ownership market are not unrelated!