steven langsford

Some notes on probability judgement – Notes from a data witch For the love of fuck, literally nobody thinks that 20% of the population is transgender. Please stop sharing that ridiculous YouGov statistic

Against my better instincts, I have written some notes on how human probability judgements work and what you should expect from surveys that ask people to guess what proportion of the population is transgender. I hope never to speak of this matter again

This is why I prefer minimum description length, but there's much less literature on it

Kinda, but looks like the philosophy version. I think it's also legit to gloss as "you need to distinguish between dog-cat and dog-walk associations, they're both strong but different kinds" and then never remember which is which

Runoff vote counting changes the whole ecosystem. It's not just that first choices get more expressive. it changes who can run because it's not terrible to have multiple similar candidates, and it changes how candidates talk about each other, since courting second preferences can be important

Australia’s Upcoming Election: The Independent Factor The real political shift in Australia is the public’s increasing attraction to independent candidates.

#Australia🇦🇺