Ethan Bueno de Mesquita

rude

also, we read the books and thought about them in the old college

$20 million gift launches lab at Harris School to advance field of algorithmic public policy Gift from Thomas and Susan Dunn supports creation of the Bike Shop @UChicago, which aims to shape AI development and build scalable solutions to pressing societal problems

Very exciting news today @harrispolicy.bsky.social!

news.uchicago.edu/story/20-mil...

Obviously the best decade for television (especially if you include afternoon re-run culture).

Great for music and Bears' Super Bowls.

Bad for research design.

Bonica shows a problem with the primary RD design for later periods, which Hall & Thompson agree with. They conclude we lack statistical power to conclude anything about changes over time. (Note: the second paper in my first post is not an RD paper).

www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/hall_thompso...

I think these by Hall et al are the most convincing:
www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/Hall_APSR.pdf

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Just for the record, though, and not defending any of these analyses that belong in the 1980s, the well identified studies we do have suggest that there are positive electoral returns to moderation.

I think Kevin is likely referring to a scenario in which you are being chased by your enemies

Alternative headline: "Eagles' Arrogance Trumps Bears' Incompetence in Race for Third Seed"

You mispelled Ron Guidry

I'm taking credit for you reading fiction in 2025.

You are living a charmed life.

My whole mental model of you is broken by the absence of the Wellness reporting from this list.

I mean, I see what you are saying.

But I'll be damned if I'm going to hand it to Adorno.

Just want to say that @amiethomasson.bsky.social's "Ontology Made Easy" is really wonderful.

Exceptionally clear and clarifying.

I can't recall feeling this positively about a book of academic philosophy since Hacking's Representing & Intervening.

(Note: It doesn't compete w/ Hacking for humor)

Why?

If I want to discover that I don't really understand what's going on in my proof, I can just try to write the text explaining the result.

Or did you have in mind that I would try and succeed?

Just here to say:

Pr(Engage in Violence | Very Online) \ne Pr(Very Online | Engage in Violence)

This is a bi-partisan error.

You may now return to yelling at one another.

I mean, a promise is a promise, but I'm starting to feel as thought we'd be justified if we were to forget the way they thrilled the nation, with their T-formation.

Dear Intro Game Theory Instructors,

Martin Osborne conjured a world for all of us in which there is no need to impose the confusion of Dixit and Skeath on the poor, unsuspecting undergrads.

Sincerely,

Ethan

I mean, is it really worse than Automatic for the People?

We live in an age of technological wonders.

And yet, it is a bi-partisan consensus in the American government that the only way to protect the traveling public from the national security threats posed by a small tub of cream cheese is through TSA confiscation.

That's just the price of freedom.

The Straussian reading of this whole thread is interesting.

There is a plausible interpretation that @soashworth.bsky.social doesn't mean any of it.

Because if he was writing a thread he believed in, there is no way he would lead with the single-peaked MVT rather than the single-crossing MVT.

I would be disappointed if you did...

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that all CS majors were 1st gen and all art history majors were from well-connected families.

Even if CS actually provides better job opportunities,we'd observe CS majors having worse job outcomes, despite the causal effect going the opposite direction.

That seems likely to be true.

But my point is, you cannot even tell the sign of the effect, let alone its magnitude, from this sort of evidence.

I see a lot of folks posting about that NYTimes article. So I'm just going to say something I know you all already know, but is important.

You cannot infer the effect on unemployment of majoring in one topic vs another by comparing the unemployment rates of folks who chose those majors.

Just for the record, this difference is definitely not an unbiased estimate of the causal effect of changing from art history to a computer engineering major on unemployment.,

Andalusian Gazpacho Recipe This gazpacho recipe calls for salting and draining the vegetables and then freezing them, which helps extract flavorful juices from their cellular structure.

It is that time of year again.

This is the world's most perfect gazpacho recipe.

It has a few more steps than other gazpacho recipes.

But it is 1000 times more delicious.

You are welcome.

www.seriouseats.com/andalusian-g...

Our producer cut the part where I said that the clearest way of saying what I think is that I think what Ian Hacking says.

You can definitely spray your kid.

So your kid exists.

Do We Understand Members Of The Other Party? Podcast Episode · Not Another Politics Podcast · 08/07/2025 · 54m

This was a fun episode of Not Another Politics Podcast with Adam Mastriani.

Plus the last 8 minutes or so include a short rant (mostly from me) on philosophy of science, so the professionals should feel free to laugh at me.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/d...