Gregory Smith

This one makes me happy. S&P finally see sense and upgrade Sri Lanka. www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...

Thanks for sharing. Looks interesting. Want to read this but the links seem to be down.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Why Aren’t Markets Freaking Out? Of Trump, Keynes and Wile E. Coyote

The muted market reaction to The Crazy doesn't tell you much about what will happen. Markets almost *never* react in advance to large but only potential disruptions. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-arent-...

How to Stabilize Africa’s Debt Successful debt stabilization requires measures to strengthen public finances and institutions, alongside pro-growth structural reforms and a sound macroeconomic environment

IMF; “Contrary to perception, countries in the region have often been able to stabilize or reduce their debt ratios without debt restructuring.”

www.imf.org/en/News/Arti...

Good to see some African equity markets powering ahead this year:

Egypt +16% in US dollars
Nigeria +22% in US dollars
Kenya +39% and
Morocco up 45% (I didn't expect that)

Africa, like much of EM, does well when the $ is weak .. and when Trump isn't paying them much attention

Lumpy census data driving the larger African moves. Sad for Namibia (but blog says was due to 2023 census result that recorded popn up 13.8%. GDP up 3.7% in 2024). Conversely Cabo Verde (growing well) saw 12.8% decline in the measure of popn); gets them promoted. Seychelles still high income 💪.

The new World Bank income classifications are out. blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/...

Never knew he was born in Mazabuka. Zambia, then Zimbabwe, then on to economic greatness.

The FT going hard right now.

Positive surprise (for me) with Fitch upgrading Nigeria’s sovereign rating

Completely agree that major reforms have greatly improved Nigeria’s credit worthiness

Surprise because of oil dropping into the 60s, and oil production at 1.5 mn, and elections in 2027

www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...

Historic times for trade, literally

Seems like the IMF liked the Sri Lanka budget. Their board calendar:

What better cause for an inaugural post - #debtcon8 links are all below. Submit, y’all!

www.law.georgetown.edu/iiel/initiat...

Great turnout at the Sri Lanka economic submit this evening. Should be with President AKD presenting on transformational growth. Feels like business community have full confidence in the objectives.

Has the debt chart they always use and I like. Clear pressure of the burden on Pakistan and Sri Lanka (post debt restructuring)

How Pakistan’s military is taking over its economy The country’s armed forces have become intimately involved in everything from canal projects to energy contracts. Investors are increasingly nervous

Good FT read: How Pakistan’s military is taking over its economy on.ft.com/4hbriif

An economically dynamic India is Manmohan Singh’s greatest legacy

Great anecdote here from former FT editor Richard Lambert on the time Manmohan Singh came to the FT to talk with him and Martin Wolf. H/T @andymukherjee70.bsky.social

Good FT piece on 2024’s elections. A story of losing share.

Behind India’s majority-losing-election is a rise in youth unemployment

I like an ‘in 6 charts’ article on.ft.com/4fDS0OQ

Should be something but I’ve not found anything better than csdr. Googled this time though as thought they might after exchange.

An upgrade to CCC+ on new bond day for Sri Lanka www.fitchratings.com/research/sov...

For Pakistan to march back to single-B some fitness gains are needed. This should be a clear target destination for the next 2-3 years.

Great to spend a few days in Islamabad and discuss the path to a better sovereign credit rating with government.

Gregory Smith on LinkedIn: Pakistan's climb back to a single-B credit rating To march back to single-B some fitness gains are needed. This should be a clear target destination for the next 2-3 years. Great to spend a few days in…

www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...

Sujeetha Jegajeevan, PhD on LinkedIn: GDP The economy has grown by 5.5% in 2024Q3. Further analysis by the Economic Research Department is attached.

More strong recovery growth for Sri Lanka 💪 5.5% in Q3 24
www.linkedin.com/posts/sujeet...

"Bonds have won wars and broken countries. They have funded hospitals, slave-worked tobacco farms and sugar plantations. They’re now bankrolling the data centres and chips that power artificial intelligence, as well as more obvious boondoggles, like Manchester United."

Same model has deployed $270bn over past decade alone, with $179bn directed to Africa.

Calm concessional capital flows are crucial for development.

An Open Letter on IDA21 to Our Shareholders, Clients, Partners, and the Global Development Community An Open Letter on IDA21 to Our Shareholders, Clients, Partners, and the Global Development Community

www.worldbank.org/en/news/stat...

With $100 billion of affordable financing in the tank the World Bank’s IDA is ready to go again.

World Bank is able to leverage all $24bn of donor dollars 3.5 to 4 times 💪.