FPL Thomas

Free hit keeps evolving every hour. Here's the latest iteration

Latest Free Hit 16 draft.

Any thoughts or suggestions?

GW15: 55pts

Captain has blanked three gameweeks in a row, while Bruno or Haaland hauls, and no Foden.

Just about surviving 🫠

Next up, free hit!

My partner thought it would be fun to give me an early Christmas gift... 😭

Think I'm not going to use a transfer this week 😊

Because I'm free hitting baby!

Here's a first draft

My GW15 team:

🧢 Haaland
🔄 1FT

Welcome Danny 🫡
Mateta to Welbeck ✅

Well, I had a spare transfer to use and decided to take a short term punt this week.

Semenyo stays, for now.

Planning on activating the Free Hit post deadline!

💰 ITB: 3.4M | 🌎 OR: 1.04m

#FPL

My scouting report on Yankuba Minteh will be out tomorrow at 4 PM GMT (instinctive.substack.com).

It's a fun one, as I analyse why I believe Minteh's output will skyrocket [soon].

It is what it is.

Over to you Bruno 🫠

Honestly I give up

Captain's armband has moved to Bruno.

Going to hide behind my couch tonight.

The 10% Club: Opta's Best Under-the-Radar FPL Picks for Gameweek 14 | Opta Analyst Who are the best players to add to your FPL team for Gameweek 14 of 2025-26? We use data to bring you our under-the-radar picks.

Need a wildcard pick for your FPL team this week? Here's my latest look at the numbers for @optaanalyst.optajoe.com:

My GW14 team:

🧢 TBD
🔄 3FTs

Sensei to Timber ✅
Sarr to Bruno G ✅
Ndiaye to Minteh ✅

Well, I had some transfers to use and decided to go aggressive this week.

Semenyo stays, for now. Could easily be Gakpo or Foden on the weekend!

💰 ITB: 2.0M | 🌎 OR: 680k

#FPL

GW13: 52pts

🌍 OR: 1M to 670k

Decent green arrow given how this gameweek.

3FTs to use. Sarr is injured. Sensei is suspended. Semenyo isn't delivering.

Minteh, Bruno G, Saka and Timber are all in contention!

Exactly the same mate. Sigh.

Foden was a menace for us today.

My GW13 team:

🧢 Haaland TC
🔄 3FTs

Tarkowski to O'Reilly was done on Thursday.

Doku/Foden are tempting, but I really like watching Sarr, Ndiaye and Semenyo, and I can't watch City this week anyway as it's a 3pm game.

Perfect for a triple captaincy 👌

💰 ITB: 3.2M | 🌎 OR: 1M

#FPL

After all... Why not? Why shouldn't I 👀

GW12 Wrap Up

🧮 46pts
🌍 1,003,218 - just outside the top 1M

Genuinely a forgetful gameweek for many

Defenders continue to be the heroes that come when we need them. Thiago doing his traditional one penalty scored, one missed routine

3FTs. Free Hit still to play. Plenty to think about for GW13!

Still dubious about using it this week, but opportunities are few and far between 🫠

My GW12 team:

🧢 Haaland
🔄 3FTs

Think it'll be just Lacroix in for Gabriel this week.

I've considered buying Saka for Ndiaye, but it's going to limit team flexibility

I'm likely free hitting in GW13, so allows me to watch United for two games before going there

💰 ITB: 2.8M | 🌎 OR: 1.1M

#FPL

GW11: 58pts

🌍 1.9M ➡️ 1.13M OR

Successful bench boost, with Thiago's brace the difference. Incredibly fortunate for Anderson to take that last minute penalty 😆

Plenty to consider over the break!

Tarkowski just isn't justifying his price, especially with Keane reliving his prime years 🫠

My GW11 team:

🔄 4FTs
🧢 Haaland

Gyokeres to Thiago
Reijinders to Sarr

💺 Bench boost is active

Weighed up options for midfield. Minteh, Rice, Gakpo. Ultimately decided on Sarr.

Tarkowski likely out for Virgil / Timber / Munoz in GW12

Good luck all!

💰 ITB: 1.5M | 🌎 OR: 1.9M

#FPL

a man in a tie is standing in front of a sign that says `` what is going on ? '' ALT: a man in a tie is standing in front of a sign that says `` what is going on ? ''

Gyökeres goal, Gabriel assist. Mateta then scores. Bruno assist.

What the hell is going on?! Is this what it feels to actually have returns

#FPL

My GW10 team:

🔄 5FTs
🧢 Haaland

Joao Pedro to Mateta
Caicedo to Anderson

Weighed up options to fund Mateta. In the end, selling Cai made sense to a cheaper DEFCON monster.

Would mean 5FTs in GW12 for a mini-wildcard.

Bench boost is on for GW11.

Good luck all!

💰 ITB: 0.0M | 🌎 OR: 2.55M

#FPL

Interesting! Some surprising differences coming through. Out of curiosity, where would Munoz be placed? Id assume nearby Timber?

📊 #FPL Defender DEFCON vs xGC tiers | GW1-9

As requested, a look at which defenders have best balanced:
🛡️ Clean sheet potential (team xGC p90)
🛡️ DEFCON bonus potential (CBIT p90)

Converted using a Poisson-based model to map out equivalent points tiers🤓😅

📊 #FPL GK efficiency tiers | GW1-9

A look at this season’s data to see which goalkeepers have best balanced:
🧤 Clean sheet potential (xGC per 90)
🧤 Save volume (saves per 90)

Both converted to xPts to highlight some 'efficiency frontiers' 👇

🍻

I'll still take 13 points though! ⭐

Fiancée: What are you up to tonight?

Me: Definitely not counting down to Rodon getting 10 defensive contributions. Absolutely not. Anyway, four to go!