Mike Simonsen

That’s a nice view

When home sellers don't get the offer they want, one option is to withdraw the listing.

How much are cancellations effecting the market right now?

Lots of people asking that question. Here's how I look at it. As a percentage of new listings - how many cancel?

Some data:

This week: The Great Stay - Looks like sellers are backing off now.

Here's this week's video with all the data:

5/6 Price Reductions

➡️ At 41.7% of the active listings, price reductions were unchanged from last week but still significantly more than a year ago.

While pricing is obviously soft in most of the country, it's notable that it's not deteriorating.

4/6 Home Prices

➡️At $399,000 home prices are just 1.5% above last year at this time.

Even as sale inch upwards, it sure looks like there are lots of opportunities for home prices to finish 2025 in negative territory.

3/6 Weekly Pending Home Sales

➡️68,000 new contracts for single family homes.

That dipped 3% for the week but is still 3.5% greater than last year. Slowly that'll turn into transaction growth headlines.

2/6 Inventory

➡️There are 867,000 single family homes on the market.

That's 26.6% more than last year. Lots more unsold homes, but inventory was growing faster then.

This week in the Compass Intelligence weekly housing market data:

Everyone knows that the price pressure is on. Did you know that have been gradually FEWER new listings each week?

Sellers are staying away.

That implies a cap on inventory growth for the rest of the year.

1/6

11:30pm update. Problem fixed.

Owner fixing the locks with a hammer on our Virginia AirBnB at 10:30 on Friday night. Real estate is passive income, guys!

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here are potential hypotheses:

bsky.app/profile/mike...

It could be renewed exodus?? I haven't seen data, but maybe?

But... if so, where are they all moving? It sure ain't to AZ, TX, FL, CO, etc. All those places have way worse supply/demand imbalances

Your spouse is insightful about CA! Indeed Prop13 is crazy. It keeps property taxes artificially low so we never sell houses. Inventory per capita is way below other states.

But that's a 50-year-old original sin for CA real estate. It doesn't explain change inventory growth in 2025 from 2024

Two hypotheses from the comments that have potential:

1. California employment is deteriorating faster than elsewhere
2. Demand-side cash programs are ending, and they were more important in expensive CA than elsewhere.

this hypothesis has merit!

Alas that's neither new, nor unique to California.

I'm looking for why CA inventory stayed relatively low through 2024 (even though rates high and starter homes were expensive), and is just now in 2025 rising. This trend is notably different from most of the rest of the country.

I'd argue the retirees in California have it best. Prop 13 means their houses are taxed at like 1985 values. The longer you hold, the better deal it is.

I suppose maybe there's a new outflow of seniors?? But where are they going? Not AZ or FL, that's for sure. Inventory there is even higher

This is an interesting hypothesis. Have you seen any data on foreign buyers?

We know why inventory is up in FL, TX, AZ, etc. (migration is way down, fewer buyers from the northeast.)

But CA has had net negative migration for a long time and inventory stayed low much longer.

Any hypothesis about why CA inventory is climbing this year, finally? What is it about 2025?

California unsold inventory is at levels not seen in 8 years. Up 37% over last year.

Help me answer: Why now?

Logan on why we’re *this close* on rates

7/ You can now subscribe to the Compass YouTube channel for weekly Compass Intelligence videos on the latest housing market data.

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6/ The story of the last three years has been "home sales are down, but home prices are up"

But the second half of 2025 looks to flip that script.

Home sales are (finally) ticking up, and price pressures are (finally) pushing down.

5/ Price Reductions

For the leading indicators of future sales prices, we look at the price reductions now. Currently 41.4% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut. Up 70bp for the week.

That signals continued price pressures through the rest of the year at least.

4/ Home Prices

As a result of growing inventory, home prices are just 1% above last year at this time.

Median price is $395,000 now.

The leading indicators of future sales prices are still weak so that implies that we could see negative home price changes for 2025.

3/ Inventory

Even as sales tick up, inventory continues to rise.

28% more homes on the market nationally than last year. 857,000 single family homes unsold.

Up 1.2% for the week.

Nationally, the market is back to the old-normal/pre-pandemic levels of inventory.

2/ First thing to note: Home Sales

Home sales volumes, which have been below 2024 levels all year, are about to turn positive in the headlines.

The weekly pending sales numbers have been averaging about 5% greater than last year for a couple months.

Announcing: Compass Intelligence!

Weekly housing market data and video from me in my new role as chief economist for
@Compass

This week: Two big trends for the real estate market in the second half of 2025.

🧵👇

1/7

great to hear!