John M. Drake

Why are flu vaccination rates stuck?

We studied how “medical mindsets” (naturalist/technologist, minimalist/maximalist, doubter/believer) affect vaccine hesitancy.

These attitudes matter and could help tailor communication to boost uptake.

Read about it in #Vaccine 👉 doi.org/10.1016/j.va...

What if we take a systems approach to thinking about transboundary animal diseases? Our framework, just out in #TrendsInParasitology, suggests common vulnerabilities and opportunities for intervention.

#TADs

authors.elsevier.com/a/1lshW5Eb1x...

Understanding avian influenza mortality Three theories could explain why the North American H5N1 epidemic has not been more deadly

New essay out in #Science: why is the human fatality rate from the current #H5N1 outbreak so much lower than in past outbreaks?

I explore three possible explanations—and what they mean for pandemic risk.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Newly expanded version of my guide to scientific writing -- known as the “15 steps” -- published in PLOS Computational Biology. Special thanks to Éric Marty for creating a fantastic visualization.

Check it out: journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...

#ScientificWriting #PLOSComputationalBiology

How do human-wildlife interfaces and seasonality interact during disease emergence? Our team has created a model, inspired by the #spillover of #Ebola, to better understand the interplay.

Read more about our research: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...

Saad Bhamla Is A Polymath Philanthropy backs bold science as federal funds shrink. Schmidt Polymaths support Saad Bhamla’s work on biomechanics of everyday organisms from ripple bugs to flamingos.

Science philanthropy is alive and well. Schmidt Sciences has just announced eight new awards through its Schmidt Polymaths program.

www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

Flyer advertising upcoming MIDAS Trainee Network event on How to Write a Strong Manuscript. The event will take place on Thurs 9/25 at 12pm ET with a presentation from Dr. John Drake from the University of Georgia, followed by Q&A and discussion. Register at: https://georgetown.zoom.us/meeting/register/rTEZP0pSQIqlLv_EyquGgQ

Ever read a paper & think, "wow 🤩 that was well written"?

Learn how to write your own *wow* paper with @midas-network.bsky.social trainees on Thurs 9/25 @ noon ET.

We'll hear from @jdrakephd.bsky.social on strategies for crafting & communicating a good story.

🔗 georgetown.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

An Algorithm For Controlling Epidemics Researchers adapt model predictive control from engineering to epidemic response, balancing health and economic costs under noisy, delayed data.

Interesting work by Kris Parag and Sandor Beregi using model predictive control for timing NPIs.

👉 Read my Forbes piece: www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

Also: are there essays or papers you’ve found especially insightful on the ethics of AI in scholarly writing?

Three prompts:
(1) What tasks might AI be used for?
(2) What are the norms of academic writing that AI could reinforce, violate, or unsettle?
(3) What ethical challenges/dilemmas deserve closer attention (e.g., equity of access, epistemic dependence, shifting standards of originality)?

Universities everywhere are now grappling with policies on the use of AI in research and writing, raising fascinating broader questions about how AI might (or should) figure in scholarly work.

What are your thoughts—beyond the usual tropes (“AI isn’t an author,” “the human is responsible,” etc.)?

California Child Infected With H5N1 Bird Flu, Source Unknown CDC reports a San Francisco child infected with H5N1 bird flu in December 2024; source unknown. Case highlights risk to general population.

Full details of #H5N1 infection in a San Francisco child last year—with no known source—were just published in the MMWR.

Case report → www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes...

My take at forbes.com → www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

Drake's Dispatches | John Drake | Substack I'm John, a professor writes about science, health, environment, and the policies that shape them. Click to read Drake's Dispatches, by John Drake, a Substack publication.

Trying something new: a Substack. It’s called Drake’s Dispatches. Occasional essays, columns, and notes on science, health, environment, and other stuff. First post is up: jdrakephd.substack.com

Two Thousand Of America’s Top Scientists Warn Congress: Don’t Gut Research Funding Open letter from 2,100+ National Academy members warns Congress of dire consequences from FY26 science budget cuts; organizers seek response.

What stands out to me is not only the scale of the mobilization, but the silence it has met. When the top 0.1% of scientists, engineers, and physicians are compelled to act collectively, you would expect their message to command attention.

www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

Bird Flu In The US: Seventy Human Cases, Mostly Mild, But With Warning Signs Seventy U.S. H5N1 cases reveal unusual patterns: fewer deaths than abroad but much higher risk than seasonal flu

We finally have a proper breakdown of the 70 human cases of H5N1 in the USA thanks to Melissa Rolfes and other CDC scientists. Great paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

My thoughts here:
www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

The Lancet One Health Commission: harnessing our interconnectedness for equitable, sustainable, and healthy socioecological systems Industrialisation, urbanisation, and globalisation have substantially improved human life expectancy over the past century. In tandem, an expanding array of interlinked threats to humans, other animal...

An ambitious new report, commissioned by #TheLancet, seeks to reframe #OneHealth to be an even more encompassing framework. I spoke with co-chairs Andrea Winkler and John Amuasi about their process.

The report: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

My interview: www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

Bearded Dragons Linked To Multi-state Outbreak Of Rare Salmonella Serovar In Children A rare Salmonella outbreak tied to pet bearded dragons sickened children in 14 states, raising questions about reptile trade and public health.

A rare Salmonella strain has reemerged in the US, traced to pet bearded dragons. 27 cases, mostly infants. Same strain as 10 yrs ago.

My take in Forbes on what this means for public health—and for the reptile trade.

www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

Why are there so few pathogens? Ecology and evolution in pathogen emergence Why are there so few pathogens, and what determines their emergence? This Perspective argues that ecological and evolutionary forces (host availability, geographic exposure and microbial innovation) w...

Given the tremendous diversity of microorganisms in the world, why do only a small fraction cause disease?

My essay in #PLOSBiology argues that the answer is lack of opportunity and that humans encounter only one new bacterial pathogen for every 1.4b years lived.

journals.plos.org/plosbiology/...

Nonprofit Refuses $1.5M Science Grant Due To New Federal DEI Rules A coding nonprofit turned down a $1.5M NSF grant after new DEI restrictions, highlighting the clash between federal policy and scientific community values.

I spoke with Kari Jordan and Erin Becker of The Carpentries about why they declined a $1.5M NSF grant intended to expand data science training. Their decision highlights the growing intersection of #science, #DEI, and federal policy.

Read the full story on Forbes: www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

Scaling of Extinction Time With Habitat Size in Experimental Populations Theory predicts that extinction time scales with carrying capacity as either an exponential or power law. Extinction time in 35 laboratory populations was more consistent with a power law than expone....

New in #EcologyLetters: How does extinction time scale with habitat size? An experiment with #Daphnia found strong support for power law—not exponential—scaling. A rare test of a big theoretical question.

Link: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
#Ecology #Extinction #Scaling #Microcosms

John Drake shaking hands

Congrats to @jdrakephd.bsky.social on the important achievement of winning our* infectious disease pub quiz. Honorable mentions to Corin Yeats, Luca Ferretti, @christophraser.bsky.social and @aliciagill.bsky.social
* the Pandemic Sciences Institute; Data, Epidemiology and Analytics section

Tracking Bird Flu Through Poop In Places No One’s Looking New research uses bird droppings to track avian flu in remote regions, revealing hidden hotspots and potential for early outbreak detection.

Global #influenza surveillance has long focused on farms, markets, and clinical settings. But new evidence suggests that sampling wild bird droppings could play a critical role in detecting emerging flu threats earlier and in places that are otherwise hard to monitor.

www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

Scientists-In-Training Speak Out To Protect Public Research The McClintock Letters Project is a student-led nationwide campaign advocating for public investment in scientific research.

Hundreds of early-career scientists are writing letters to their hometown papers to connect Americans with science. The McClintock Letters Project is about trust, story, and the future of science in America.
🧬📬 Read more: www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
#ScienceCommunication #McClintockLetters

Please to be presenting today at the 74th Annual International Conference on Diseases in Nature Communicable to Humans on our latest work using #MachineLearning to understand the ecology of emerging #Arboviruses

Judge Rules NIH Grant Cuts Illegal A federal judge has ruled that the Trump administration’s termination of NIH research grants constituted racial discrimination and anti-LGBTQ+ bias.

A federal judge ruled Trump-era NIH grant cuts “void and illegal,” citing discrimination. I wrote for Forbes about the implications for science funding and institutional trust.
🔗 www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...
#NIH #SciencePolicy #Forbes

Volunteer Track The $10 Billion Blow To American Science Grassroots efforts support court case against the NIH

Nearly 4,000 federal science grants terminated.

A group of volunteers built Grant Watch to track it—now their data is showing up in court.

I talked to Noam Ross about how it started and what it means.

www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

#ScienceIsEssential #GrantWatch #NIH #NSF #ACLU #DataJournalism

Former NSF Director Warns Of Fragile Future For American Science Former NSF Director France Córdova reflects on the promise of science, the limits of philanthropy, and why disinvestment puts America’s scientific future at risk.

“All of science is underfunded—and now we really mean it.”

Former NSF Director France Córdova on the future of American science.

My piece for Forbes: www.forbes.com/sites/johndr...

An interesting question is *why* we have this pattern. I suspect there are multiple contributing factors, perhaps not all bad. #ScienceOfScience

I was thinking about that, too. Of my research projects, some of the most subjectively important, and most interdisciplinary, have been least cited.

The pivot penalty in research - Nature An analysis of millions of scientific papers and patents reveals a ‘pivot penalty’ when researchers shift direction, with the impact of studies decreasing rapidly the further they move from their prev...

Fascinating new paper shows that when researchers “pivot” to new areas of work the outcome is less impactful.

#ScienceOfScience

www.nature.com/articles/s41...