Andrew Miller

Screenshot from a mistakenly published Globe & Mail newsletter that only has "TKTKTK - normal text" on repeat

Tweet from the Globe & Mail's twitter account, reading "tk" with a link that has a "tk" headline.

This is incredible work from @theglobeandmail.com - shows us how we all feel trying to follow the news right now

Contra Pueyo on Robotaxis Robotaxis won't be everywhere soon, and it's unclear that Tesla has an edge

For the full analysis on why robotaxis won't replace traditional taxis by 2027 (as Pueyo suggests), read my newsletter: www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/contra-pue...

Like most technological transformations, robotaxis will follow an S-curve: slow at first, then accelerating as technical, regulatory, and infrastructure hurdles are cleared

Don't delay your next car purchase expecting robotaxis to make ownership obsolete next year

Nor is the Tesla vs. Waymo race as clear-cut as he thinks

Tesla has data volume, but Waymo has quality data specifically for robotaxis

Company culture matters too—Waymo's methodical approach versus Tesla's push-forward mentality will play out differently with regulators

The challenges are significant:

🐁 The "long tail" problem in automated driving is harder than it looks

📚 Regulatory approval is a maze of jurisdictions

❄️ Weather conditions still baffle these systems

🏗️ Infrastructure isn't ready

Robotaxis are coming, but not as quickly as the optimists predict

My latest CHANGING LANES newsletter responds to
@tomaspueyo.bsky.social's techno-optimism about the imminent robotaxi revolution

A quick 🧵 on why I think this transformation will take longer than he expects:

Book Review: Tyler Cowen's Stubborn Attachments Pursuing economic growth is morally required

Read my full review in the latest issue of CHANGING LANES:
www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/book-revie...

Cowen wrote this in 2018 but it's still topical, as his framework allows us to think critically about the economic policy of our moment: not only tariffs, but also government rebates

As I write, "The real power of STUBBORN ATTACHMENTS [is] not in providing us with a skeleton key to unlock every policy problem, but in helping us recognize what is at stake in our policymaking..."

Cowen argues that prioritizing short-term consumption over long-term investment harms future generations... while pursuing investment has the potential to solve distribution and aggregation problems

The first is a breathtakingly audacious claim, but his argument won me over

Book Review: Tyler Cowen's Stubborn Attachments Pursuing economic growth is morally required

Tyler Cowen's book STUBBORN ATTACHMENTS makes the remarkable claim that maximizing sustainable economic growth isn't just good policy, it's a moral imperative
www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/book-revie...

Is that true? It's not intuitive, certainly. There's no faster way to get from Toronto to Ottawa than flying, but there are three flights in the next four hours

You don't think more frequent service would be an improvement?

Canada should do absolutely nothing about improving rail in that corridor? When did I say that?

IIRC, I said Canada should pursue High Frequency Rail instead, as the better rail-based solution

Canada Should Make Air Travel Sustainable The national transportation project that Canada should pursue

Our future lies not in pretending to be a dense and compact European country, but in solving the challenges that come with being Canada (5/5)

Read more in the latest issue of CHANGING LANES:
www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/canada-sho...

The cost? ~$50B over 15 years - comparable to proposed HSR, but with benefits that reach every Canadian city and create exportable technology the whole world needs (4/5)

We already have the pieces: agricultural/forestry biomass, renewable energy capacity, and aerospace expertise. A national sustainable aviation initiative would create opportunities across ALL regions, not just the Toronto-Montreal corridor (3/5)

Canada's geography makes HSR impractical for most of the country. But our vast distances and dispersed population centers are perfect for a sustainable aviation revolution combining SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) and electric aircraft (2/5)

Canada Should Make Air Travel Sustainable The national transportation project that Canada should pursue

Instead of copying European high-speed rail, I argue Canada should lead the world in sustainable aviation. Here's why 🧵 (1/5)
www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/canada-sho...

Canada Shouldn’t Build High-Speed Rail It is still the time in this fair land for that railroad not to run

Read more in the latest issue of CHANGING LANES:
changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/canada-sho...
(6/6)

Most importantly: the timing is wrong

This is a lame-duck PM's Hail Mary pass. We should stick to the original plan: build high-frequency rail first, develop the ridership and expertise, then transition to HSR

Less romantic, more realistic
5/6

The process is wrong

It emphasizes consultation and engagement. But you can't build HSR through consensus

Successful systems made hard choices early about routing, land acquisition, and station locations, while California tried to please everyone

Look how that worked out
4/6

The team is wrong

Alto's executives have virtually no rail experience

The one exception? Their Chief Project Officer, who ran Spain's HSR expansion. She should be CEO

We need to be poaching talent aggressively from successful systems, not recycling domestic flacks
3/6

The structure is wrong

Alto relies on a fragmented consortium of private companies. Every successful HSR system—in France, Japan, Spain—was built by a strong, centralized public agency that developed deep expertise

We're copying California's failures instead
2/6

Canada Shouldn’t Build High-Speed Rail It is still the time in this fair land for that railroad not to run

Canada just announced "Alto", a Toronto–Quebec City high-speed rail plan

I'm a rail enthusiast and frequent VIA rider. But this plan is doomed to fail

Here's why 🧵
1/6
www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/canada-sho...

Automated Driving in Winter Conditions An Interview with Steven Waslander

5/5 Read the full analysis in the latest issues of my CHANGING LANES newsletter, where I dig deeper into the technical challenges and potential solutions
www.changinglanesnewsletter.com/p/automated-...

4/5 Most encouraging thing I learned: While daunting at first, the winter driving problem breaks down into specific, solvable challenges:

📹Better sensor fusion

🔁Expanded training data

🔮Improved prediction systems

It's not if we solve it, but when