Stats

We're seeing some fascinating divergences in projections. @fangraphs.com has the Red Sox as a 90-win team. @baseballprospectus.com has them as an 81-win team. While ZiPS doesn't have any Sox hitters projected for > 18 HR, PECOTA has Duran and Contreras getting to exactly 20.

it's possible, but last year was a decline in homers, a decline in expected power, 16 HR vs. 16.4 expected home runs, and no projection model has more than 19 with 16 being his average. so no real flashing signs of a breakout.

They started him in CF in the major leagues 7 times last year after playing 1 college game in center and 25 minor league games in center. He could be a very good corner outfielder and probably at least average in center.

I’d rather have Durbin than anyone they gave up, but he’s more league average than anything else, which is fine. His 80th/20th percentiles are 3.7 WAR and 1.6 WAR. I'd be stunned if he hit the former and not shocked if he didn't reach 2. 2.5 seems right. I've heard MIL feels they are selling high.

Yeah, I'd been putting off an offseason thoughts one until we got a big bat, but with that not happening, I'll do a winter overview sometime soon, then a season outlook end of March.

Gonna need to do more damage before pitchers start risking walking him.

I don't think anything special, unless he somehow enters the season hitting the ball harder. I like the fangraphs depth chart blend of steam/zips projections... 2.5 WAR, 258/334/395, 12 HR, 23 SB

BatX and Oopsy projections are quite down on him, and BatX has the most batted ball data influence.

On the morning of June 7th, Durbin ranked 201st/229 of MLB batters in wRC+. I have no idea how much of a leash he had left, but the rest of the way he put up a 120 wRC+, ranking 81st/222.

Haven't heard much... but internally they loved him to a preposterous level heading into last season, and it doesn't sound like much has changed; they think he is an eventual monster.

I don't even know what you'd be basing that off of

I guess we'll never get the full story about what went on after Campbell's rib injury and subsequent cratering last season.

However, if his bat's back to line drives all over the park with walks, I'd not be surprised if a Campbell Anthony Abreu OF is the result at some point in season.

without blinking

My offer for Neto would have been colossal and impossible for the Angels to refuse.

www.masslive.com/redsox/2026/...

Whether Gray or Suarez follows Crochet in the rotation to start the season won't be decided until the end of camp and how they want to line things up for the first few series.

Cora says that all of Kristian Campbell's regular work and playing time will be in the outfield this spring, but he will get individual work at 2B and 3B to stay fresh in those spots because if he's hitting, they will need to find him at-bats.

yeah, it's the blue box from the KBO.
and the top and bottom are based on batters measured heights this spring. I don’t care if it's smaller, as long as it's all consistent. I wish it was total ABS, not challenge.

Durbin and Contreras both had friendly zones called against them last year. They had lower catcher framing runs than any Red Sox batter. Umpires struggled with the top and bottom zones for Durbin. An interesting ABS case upcoming.

That's next to find out lol

👍

Finally confirmed that JetBlue Park has upgraded to Hawk-Eye / Statcast in time for spring training and the implementation of automatic ball strikes. They were one of last spring facilities still using trackman. Most interesting part will be if real young pitchers sneak into games for their data.

Yeah, probably just wait and see how things shake out. Most likely that someone not in the org right now will be in the pen one way or another, is my guess. In my mind it's chap whit slaten x x moran x watson and the rest is not whatever, but it's likely going to be okay.

last season the red sox had 32 starting pitcher months where a player threw >10 IP as a starter. that's left to right. the best was early’s 32% K-BB% in sept, the worst was buehler's -2% K-BB% in aug.

Yes, the last 3 orange dots were Bello's May, Sept, and April.

The first dot is Early's September, 32% K-BB%. He's still here, so it's there for last year and overlapped with this year. Then a few Crochet dots.... then a bunch of Suarez and Gray dots in orange that are much better months then the corresponding best months by Red Sox starters last year.

The blue line is every Red Sox SP month last year (>10 IP) and the corresponding K-BB%.

Orange is Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, and Early.

So the overlapping first 5 are Early's September and 4 Crochet months. Then you can see the rising tide of the new rotation.

Updated players that pitched for the Red Sox last year by release extension

i agree on all accounts.

i'm guessing they look at durbin at 2b for a bit? the word has been the prefer to play mayer at 3B, so I'm not sure this should change that plan. idk