Wally

Should she be wearing a mask!?!? Does she hate disabled people?

Turns out the “oh no, not work” guy looks like woke Sideshow Bob.

If I am the Zohran campaign, I’m excited about the latest poll numbers but worried that non response bias is overestimating my support.

I’m also praying turnout is low. College whites are going to make it to the polls. But if the rest of the city turns out, Cuomo wins.

Definitely also a confounding factor! Not one that goes in Zohran’s favor though.

Zohran is cleaning up with college whites and losing with everyone else. If turnout is low enough — and NYC has low turnout primaries — he could win.

lol. I didn’t realize people still tweeted like this. It’s like a brain frozen in 2018 was just thawed.

Locking up the ~300 most psychotic anarchist protestor types who riot during every protest would be good for society AND good for progressive politics.

Letting the revolutionary cosplayers run wild and dominate the narrative is bad for everyone.

LA riots are probably bad news for Zohran. He had a good week, but Cuomo is the law and order candidate.

FYI: Today is the day you really want to go back to twitter

None of this would have happened if fewer people voted.

They are calling today a complete victory for Wally takes.

If fewer people voted, Harris would have won.

Extremely chaotic use of quotation marks on a this seating policy.

All of this could have been avoided if fewer people voted.

“Kuwait is a dry country!”

I never thought I’d live to see the day when conservatives are complaining the US state department doesn’t follow Sharia Law.

As good a reason as any I suppose.

“What do you think about Luigi?” turns out to be a good 1-question mental illness screen.

I think it is totally plausible that marginal voters broke for Trump 66/33 in Michigan.

Also - wow, I knew turnout was up in swing states, but I didn’t realize just how high it was in MI. Up 6.6pp from 2020 to 77 percent.

Marginal voters were more Trump friendly than in 2020. If turnout were lower, fewer marginal voters would have cast their ballots for Trump.

Harris probably would have won if turnout were 2-3 points lower nationally. If it were 2012 levels, it would have been a blowout.

*reams of polling, not teams of polling.

Democrats benefit from low turnout now Don't rock the vote.

Here’s a piece I wrote for Noahpinion laying out the arg, though if you follow me on social media you’ll know I’ve been signing this tune since 2018. It just took a while for the conventional wisdom to acknowledge the new reality.

www.noahpinion.blog/p/dont-rock-...

When turnout is low — particularly in special elections, Dems
Overpreform.

Heck - a solid 6.8% of Trump voters didn’t bother to vote for the GOP senate candidate in swing states. Compare that to 0.1% drop off for Harris voters.

Turnout was up in the swing states. We know from teams of polling that Trump preformed best with lower propensity voters, and voters who don’t follow the news.

We’ve seen evidence of this in basically every election of the Trump era. When Trump is on the ballot turnout is high and GOP does well.

None of this would have happened if fewer people voted.

Sounds good. Ship it.

All of this could have been avoided if fewer people voted.

I’ve got to hand it to David, turning the Trump - Zelensky meeting into “drrr, this is why democrats bad” takes a real commitment to the bit.

Yeah, it strikes me as by far the most robust WAR measure I’ve seen.

This is from the Split Ticket win over replacement work.