Josh Morgerman

Since the tropics are dead, I popped back into #LosAngeles for a quick visit. Reconnecting with my #SoCal loves: dry heat, stunning light, creative people, healthy living.

August fruit salad. A couple of these should become DEXTER and then ERIN. But I'm not gonna have much to say about 'em. It's against this here chaserdude's religion to waste energy talking about fish food. (The lemon could *possibly* be something more than fish food, but I ain't holding my breath.)

CO-MAY (EMONG) is pulling away from the #Phlippines. It's unclear exactly what happened, but it seems it was strong tropical storm (not a typhoon) as it passed near or over the W coast of Luzon overnight. (Compare JMA, JTWC, & PAGASA tracks—they're all different.) Main impact has been flooding.

Doing personal travel as I wait for hurricanes. In #NYC for a few days. Nice to see family & reconnect with the city where I was born. NYC today is so different from when I was growing up—now cleaner & safer—but it's still the random & cool mishmash of humanity. Feels like the whole world lives here

Get your natural sleep aid—now in weather-map form. Atlantic or Eastern Pacific flavors.

#WIPHA is scraping close to #HongKong this Sunday morning. Radar shows well-organized cyclone with apparent eye & eyewall. Hong Observatory & JTWC class this as Cat-1 #typhoon, but JMA is stubbornly keeping it as TS despite surface obs that suggest it is, in fact, a typhoon. Odd.

TS #WIPHA is now within radar range of Hong Kong. It ain't exactly what I'd call a fine specimen, but it has an easily identifiable center and decent banding. Estimated winds are 55 knots. It'll be a stormy Sunday morning in Hong Kong.

TS #WIPHA (called CRISING by Filipinos) is pulling away from the #Philippines (pink) after causing flooding & travel disruptions there. It's looking a little more organized as it crosses the South China Sea, & it could be near #typhoon intensity when it passes near #HongKong (star) in ~24 hours.

View from Hurricane House just before it poured yesterday. #Invest93L brought 2.79 inches here, with 2 falling in only about a half hour. Lots of lightning & thunder, too, but peak winds of only 22 knots. With that, I am officially done talking about this annoying, boring system. Next!

Yes. But please do not rope me into discussions about that all season. It gets really old.

Wow. Hadn't looked at the radar since KMLB came back online & when I did, I was kinda surprised. That convective pattern is definitely giving cyclonic vibes. Excited to see #hurricane models run this afternoon, now that this has been designated Invest 93L. Getting some tingles from this one.

This thing's gonna move W, across Florida & into Gulf. once there, it could spin up this week. Computer models are mixed. Euro ensembles don't care for it, but GFS ensembles develop it—& naughty ICON shows a #hurricane! Whatever it is, it'll move generally W, across N Gulf, toward Texas.

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on the NE Gulf, where low pressure may form and develop during the coming week. Computer models aren't exactly screaming it out, but GFS and Euro ensembles are hinting at cyclone development in this region. 'Tis the season.

#Typhoon DANAS approaching #Taiwan. Core pounded Tainan & other cities as it swept up populated W coast. Wind reports were impressive; Yulin Co. had gust to 120 knots. No, I did not chase this—didn't see this situation coming. Computer models tricked me. Too bad. I love Taiwan & love chasing there.

#Typhoon DANAS made an unexpected landfall on W coast of Taiwan. It's a bit of a surprise—both in terms of track & intensity. Surface observations suggest it came in hot. It looked great on radar. This is 2nd typhoon landfall on W coast of Taiwan (side that usually gets less action) in last year.

A vapid, mindless generalization.

TS #CHANTAL made landfall 5 am EDT near Myrtle Beach, #SouthCarolina. It has sheared, asymmetric structure, with most of the wx right (NE) of center. It ain't pretty, but it's a legit TS, with a couple of stations reporting sustained gales. Main threat is flash flooding across the eastern Carolinas.

Spent July 4th in solitude, working out hard and cycling. I'm American because my ancestors came here to escape slaughter in Europe. I've always felt lucky to be American. And I've always associated our nation with kindness, charity, and goodness. May we not lose sight of these values.

This mess has a closed circulation—so it's now TD 3. Hurricane models are not enthused about it—not even normally excitable ones. It's likely to become TS #CHANTAL but likely to remain early-season trash before limping ashore in SC late Sat or early Sun. Eastern Carolinas could see flash flooding.

If you want to know all the gory details of hunting a dangerous storm in a faraway place, here's my complete tale of chasing Hurricane ERICK in Mexico. Enjoy! LINK: www.facebook.com/share/p/1CCN...

Heavy rain from Gulf disturbance. Just got 2.25 in in ~1 hour in Bay Saint Louis, MS (HH = Hurricane House). It's funny—I was just thinking Bay was allergic to thunderstorms this season. Don't like this weather? GET OVER IT. It's gonna stay unsettled for next couple of days while Gulf thing festers.

Watching thing over NE Gulf—a decaying frontal boundary. Sometimes these can spin up into something dangerous if they fester long enough over water. 12Z model runs are not enthused about this blob, but previous runs of GFS & Euro ensembles have shown interesting scenarios. Gonna keep an eye on it.

Sunday Nite Chaserdude Roundup: 1)FLOSSIE will become hurricane—but models have shifted away from Mexico & it'll likely be fishfood. 2)Scrambled Eggs BARRY is coming ashore near Tampico bringing heavy rain, I guess. 3)LEMON THING is rotting front which may fester enough to create mischief this week.

All known Cat-5 #hurricane landfalls in N America:
* 5 in US: San Felipe 1928, Labor Day 1935, CAMILLE 1969, ANDREW 1992, MICHAEL 2018.
* 1 in EPAC: OTIS 2023.
* Strongest: Labor Day 1935 & DORIAN (160 knots).
* US & Mexico are tied for most (5 each).
* I penetrated 3: DEAN 2007, MICHAEL, DORIAN.

By the way... It's very early in the season, but the Gulf is already plenty warm to support a #hurricane —all except a small sliver off the Yucatan Peninsula. Interestingly, waters just off Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, & Florida are boiling—in many places over 88°F (31°C).

Thanks so much, Will. 👊

I was just in Vero Beach, so I was curious about area's hurricane history. Interestingly, JEANNE 2004 is farthest-N landfall of major (Cat 3+) on Florida's East Coast. But it had fat core, so eyewall reached N to near Melbourne. Honorable mention: DORA 1964, which hit St. Augustine just under Cat 3.

Cyclones brewing either side of Central America. In Bay of Campeche, TD 2 should become TS BARRY before moving into Mexico. In EPAC, Invest 95E will become #Hurricane FLOSSIE. Computer models earlier hinted at possible Mexico threat, although afternoon runs have shifted track away from coast.

Critical Hurricane Forecast Tool Abruptly Terminated U.S. Department of Defense announced Tuesday it would no longer process and deliver data essential to most hurricane forecasts

A huge blow was dealt to hurricane forecasters this week as a critical tool was abruptly terminated by the Department of Defense and NOAA. The immediate discontinuation of data from three weather satellites will severely impact hurricane forecasts this season and beyond. More ⬇️

Back in US after harrowing #Hurricane ERICK chase. I penetrated the cyclone's violent core in remote Oaxaca #Mexico. Lethal flying debris filled the air—& I measured extreme pressure gradients—as eye passed just to the SW. Getting home was multiday odyssey. Crazy start to 2025—& my 81st hurricane.