Jeff Singer

In a classic Florida story, this special election was both caused by *and* delayed by Ron DeSantis, who tapped a loyalist despised by the House GOP for a local post in Palm Beach County.

Then he refused to call an election until the Dem pictured below, Emily Gregory, sued. Now it's on for March 24.

Confident that in the more than 20 year history of the Swing State Project/Daily Kos Elections/The Downballot, we have never written about hip-hop as much as we have in today's Morning Digest.

Everyone used to understand that, when Trump issued an endorsement to a single candidate, anyone who didn’t receive his blessing was out of luck. But even Trump these days isn't immune to pressure campaigns aimed at getting him to extend his "complete and total endorsement" to a second choice.

Wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson announced on Thursday that she was dropping out of the Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Katie Hobbs, a decision that showcased the limits of Donald Trump’s power in an unexpected way. Robson, whose exit came exactly one year to the day that she first launched her campaign, had in fact earned Trump’s backing even before she entered the race. But Trump’s pre-endorsement—at a Turning Point USA event just before Christmas in 2024—went over very poorly with the MAGA base. Far-right fanatics exploded in anger, though they largely blamed Trump’s advisors rather than MAGA’s master. Among the detractors was Sen. Jake Hoffman, who said that Trump “should fire whichever executive consultant or staffer told him to endorse the UniParty McCain network candidate for Arizona governor.” Hoffman, the chair of the state’s branch of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, added that Robson lost the 2022 primary for governor because “Arizona doesn’t want her open borders, pro-amnesty liberal policies.” He added, “KTR is the Swamp.”

Donald Trump is widely viewed as a titanic power in GOP politics—and he usually is. But wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson's decision to drop her bid for #AZGov was a real case of the tail wagging the dog, as we explain in today's newsletter. More here: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

Final result in OK is 64-36 GOP win *BUT* this was a Trump+58 seat, so that's a 29-point overperformance for Dems. Also two smaller overperformances in deep-blue VA districts—but it's usually hard to run up the score in a lopsided district.

Our Big Board: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

"They're going to put ICE at the polls in the midterms!"

Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?

Much of political coverage still insists Trump may be unpopular, but the Democratic brand is so bad it might be a wash. But here we see Democrats scoring huge wins in red Southern districts ...

"Since Trump returned to the White House, Democrats have picked up eight Republican-controlled districts through special elections, as well as 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November. Republicans have flipped none."

Most of my experience watching Louisiana politics has been seeing Democrats lose ground on Trump turf. Not tonight!

When I talk about the margin bros, it's not just mildly pejorative.

To anyone laid off from the Post today, we are hiring:

I read a ton of election news every day and can say with certainty that Patrick Svitek is one of the best reporters out there. To quote Jay Landsman from The Wire: "I don't say that about many people. Even when they're here on the felt, I don't give that one up unless it happens to be true."

Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek I was laid off today from the Washington Post’s campaigns team covering the midterms and 2028. I hear this is an important election year — and I want to cover it aggressively. If you’d like to work together, my DMs are open and you can email me at patrick.svitek@gmail.com. 11:33 AM · Feb 4, 2026 ·Twitter Web App

This is just awful news. Patrick is one of the best reporters out there, and we relied on his work constantly, including his reporting for the Texas Tribune before he went to WaPo. We would hire him if only we could. x.com/PatrickSvite...

Noah is a friend of a friend. Help get him home!

Minnesotans just showed they’ll ‘crawl over broken glass’ to vote, despite ICE terror If Trump sends troops to disrupt voting, he could face a massive backlash

What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly.

New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.

If James did seek reelection to the House after being bullied out of the governor's race, I hope Democrats ask, "How can John James stand up for Michigan when he can't even stand up for himself?"

Sending thoughts and prayers to everyone employed or represented or by Brad Finstad this morning.

Mo Brooks changes course, announces political comeback with run for… After deciding not to run for office, former U.S. Rep. Mo. Brooks has reversed course and announced plans to run for Alabama House District 20 against…

Former Rep. Mo Brooks four years ago was the Trump-backed frontrunner for a seat in the U.S. Senate. Today he's announcing a last-second bid for the state House after spending months deliberating whether to run for anything.

Major news from New York: A state judge just overturned part of the congressional map, potentially giving Democrats a chance to redraw it for 2026.

If this ruling is upheld, the Staten Island-based 11th District would flip from safely Republican to Democratic-leaning at the very least

Have Gmail’s spam filters been hyper-aggressive lately for anyone else? Just today, two emails I sent to work colleagues *as replies* got sent to their spam.

Morning Digest: Top ICE official launches campaign to flip House seat in Ohio Madison Sheahan wants to defeat veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a district that just got more conservative

A top ICE official just stepped down to challenge Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in an Ohio House seat that just got tougher for Kaptur to hold. The congresswoman, though, isn't letting the new map deter her from running again.

The site added 2004 update saying that this joke was done before Schwarzenegger was elected governor, stop emailing!

Ventura had cameo in 1997 "Batman & Robin" as guard who gets killed during escape of Mr. Freeze (Arnold Schwarzenegger). Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota the next year.

In 2002 the late website The Agony Booth joked that death of Ventura's character was it for governors in the movie ...

Image of the author's proposed Maryland congressional map "A" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number.

Image of the author's proposed Maryland congressional map "B" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number.

Image of the author's proposed Maryland congressional map "C" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number.

Data table comparing the author's three proposed Maryland congressional map with the enacted 2022 map. The categories include population deviation; splits to counties, localities, and precincts; compactness; and the number of majority-Black districts. Each of the author's maps outperform the 2022 map on every or nearly every metric.

Maryland is considering redrawing its congressional map in response to other states' remaps & asked for proposals, so I submitted these 3 maps.

Interactive maps with data:
A: davesredistricting.org/join/1b9246f...

B: davesredistricting.org/join/aad85b9...

C: davesredistricting.org/join/0e76b33...

Turns out Democrats weren't done making gains from 2025! Politico brings us this update from Orange County, NY www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Wait, how many towns have truck-eating bridges?!

Morning Digest: It was a huge year at the ballot box. Help us keep going. As the stakes get even higher in 2026, we'll keep covering every important election, every day

Just once a year, in our final newsletter, we ask our readers to donate to support our work. And it's truly been a dramatic year, one that began in despair for supporters of democracy but has since seen nothing but victories at the ballot box. If our coverage has been helpful, we hope you'll donate.

Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: GOP-backed referendum puts Oregon's new transportation funding plan at risk With new revenues now paused, Democrats are warning of major cutbacks

Nice write up in @the-downballot.com today about yesterday's Kentucky SD-37 where Gary Clemons "ran 42 points ahead of the presidential results"

@davidnir.com and @jeffsinger.bsky.social used "massive" to describe Gary's overperformance!

www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

We only just learned of the loss of a singular figure in the world of elections, Joshua Spivak of the @recallelections.bsky.social blog. Absolutely no one in America knew more about recall elections, but more than that, Spivak was a true mensch and a lovely human being. May his memory be a blessing.

Georgia Democrats won a big victory in a red legislative seat. Readers of The Downballot weren't caught off guard tonight!