Will Patterson

3-0, Ellie Cleary, and it's a goal that's been coming, we've had the bulk of the play in this second half! #wafc

2-0. Absolute peach of a goal which I missed as I'd taken that moment to turn my back and get a drink. We're starting to turn the screw a little now... #wafc

1-0. It's been a more competitive game than the team have been getting in the league, but a well timed break leads to Mason opening the scoring... #wafc

I'm watching #wafc Women take on Preston in the Lancashire FA Challenge Cup - they're in the NW Regional League Division 1: one level up from where we are so a good progress test for us. I should have brought sunglasses...

Scotland fans tonight:

a lot of queer folk can't quite put their fingers on why they're so angry and upset about this shit and yeah no this is it.

We all know and we even know that they know too. Eg the MP can't even give a single line explaining how this phone shit would have helped Brianna.

They're just playing dumb.

So much for, "Make the son of a bitch deny it"...

Wondering why the government appears in meltdown this morning? Here's how I see it: what happens when someone tells you not to think about a purple penguin? That's right, it's all you can think about. In that vein, Downing Street told journos not to think about a Wes Streeting leadership challenge.

BBC News homepage: BBC director general Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness resign

BBC News homepage: 'The best friend you'd love to have' - How Claudia Winkleman conquered TV (complete with picture of Claudia's fringe)

I mean, I'm not saying there's a link between these two stories, but the BBC could probably do far worse...

Here's the link... Enjoy!

homes.luddy.indiana.edu/ccshan/for/f...

Joe Pesci wearing a "ridiculous" suit in My Cousin Vinny

I've been trying to think who Nick Mohammed reminded me of in that suit... #CelebrityTraitors

Co-efficient Corner: Halfway through the League Stage Time flies, doesn’t it? We’re now halfway through this season’s League Stage, with Matchday 4 completed in the Champions League and Europa…

Another busy week of #UEFA Men's Club Competition action, with good news for English clubs and a productive week for the Big 4 as a whole...

Thoughtful from Seán - the Kelvin films weren't to my taste and for the most part I don't have as much connection to newer content. I thought it was the passage of time, that they're making Trek for a new generation and I'm not the kid who got into it, but this highlights bigger issues at work.

The Month in Polling: Reform and Labour move backwards, the Greens move forwards With Conference Season over for another year, and the Budget not due until later this month, it’s perhaps no surprise that we’ve now…

First Monday of the month, time for the latest Month in Polling, with good news for the Greens and bad news for Labour and Reform...

After two months, two spells in hospital including surgery, I'm back at The Brick. It's good to be back! #wafc

Wigan Athletic starting XI: Tickle, Fox, Kerr, Carragher, Murray, Weir, Wright, Cooper, Hungbo, Saydee, Mullin. Subs: Savin, Aimson, Sessegnon, Robinson, Smith, Brenan, Raphael, McManaman, Bettoni

Strong line up today - Ryan Lowe is not faffing about! #wafc

Concerned friends say he's tidying up the beard and posting thirst traps.

Lots of questions raised, but one thing is clear: For the incumbent party to have its vote squeezed at all for tactical purposes as it is no longer in contention shows how far Labour have sunk in Wales and are sinking elsewhere. A bad sign for May's elections, across GB.
10/10

Did Tories actually switch to Plaid as well? Will we see this just in the Senedd elections, or an anti-Reform backlash GB-wide? Will the faultline be communities where there have been protests against asylum seekers back Reform, while others vote for anyone else in disgust?
9/10

And Reform underperformed slightly. Less Tory tactical support? And why?Was this a one-off, or a Wales/Caerphilly thing? The Nathan Gill story? Did the mother of mixed-race kids lamenting that she no longer feels safe in her hometown because of Reform's rhetoric cut through?
8/10

My actual Senedd projection based on the most recent polls: Plaid and Reform are neck and neck.

My Senedd projection doesn't factor in tactical voting as it's a PR system (this might backfire if Plaid argue that there can only be one FM and it's between Rhun ap Iorwerth and Reform), but compare this with the last chart: Plaid have overperformed. The youthquake at work?
7/10

A Senedd projection based on what happened yesterday. A 10-seat majority for Plaid in a PR Senedd? I have my doubts...

Right, just for fun, I tried applying what happened in Caerphilly to a Senedd election - it has Plaid breaking the PR system and winning a majority, with no seats whatsoever for the Tories or LibDems. Needless to say, I find it just a bit fanciful. But it proves some things.
6/10

So is this just a Plaid thing, or can parties elsewhere, e.g the Greens and/or Your Party, mobilise that anti-Reform, anti-status quo vote in England and Scotland? Or would young people across GB still vote Labour or SNP next year if they thought it would stop Reform?
5/10

But what seems to have happened here is that Plaid were more effective at engaging first (or second) time voters: young people casting largely an anti-Reform (but also anti-Labour, to an extent) vote. Frustration at the status quo, but expressed differently to older voters.
4/10

The convential wisdom is that a higher turnout benefits Reform: they're tapping into the frustrations of longstanding non-voters and actually getting them to the polls (as suggested in this year's local elections in England). Maybe that happened to an extent...
3/10

Tactical voting was different to what I expected, but there was also something that defeats most projection models: turnout shifts! Turnout was higher this time than in any other Senedd election in Caerphilly. And who came out this time goes against received wisdom.
2/10

Final result from Caerphilly - Plaid won by 11.4 points

Thoughts on Caerphilly: firstly what did I get wrong, and why? Obviously, the overall outcome - I had Reform ahead by 1.7 points, not Plaid ahead by 11.4! This is what happens when you base your projection on the two polls to been published in two months, for a PR election.
1/10

I was thinking less than that - to get to that PC vote share I'd have assumed deposit loss levels of switching from usual Labour supporters! But it does look like they squeezed the few LD/Green voters there as well, and gained from a higher turnout of first-time voters. And that's exciting to see.