Michigan XC Speed Ratings @mxcsr

2026 Rankings: Way Too Early Girls There is much to get to this off-season. State Final ratings, MITCA as well. Writeups of the championship teams. Perhaps some ideas of how Kamari, Katie, Emma, Romeo, and Pioneer will fare at NXN. That's not even to mention Brooks! A look back at the speed and adjustments of courses. Finding who improved most in 2025. But first, I can’t help but look to 2026.

2026 Rankings: Way Too Early Girls

There is much to get to this off-season. State Final ratings, MITCA as well. Writeups of the championship teams. Perhaps some ideas of how Kamari, Katie, Emma, Romeo, and Pioneer will fare at NXN. That's not even to mention Brooks! A look back at the speed and…

19.11.2025 00:56 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2026 Rankings: Way Too Early Boys There is much to get to this off-season. State Final ratings, MITCA as well. Writeups of the championship teams. Perhaps some ideas of how teams and individuals could fare at NXN or Brooks. A look back at the speed and adjustments of courses. Finding who improved most in 2025. But first, I can’t help but look to 2026. The foundation of the following fall will be built now, the winter miles key toward a strong track season that could lead to a stronger cross season.

2026 Rankings: Way Too Early Boys

There is much to get to this off-season. State Final ratings, MITCA as well. Writeups of the championship teams. Perhaps some ideas of how teams and individuals could fare at NXN or Brooks. A look back at the speed and adjustments of courses. Finding who improved…

16.11.2025 14:41 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 State Finals: Projections vs. REALITY There’s so much to report on – STATE RECORDS, unexpected winners, unexpected All-Staters, clutch performers in the final mile. But an easy one to start things off – PROJECTIONS vs. the cold-hearted truth of REALITY. I didn’t have time (frankly, no clue how I managed time the past two weeks) to write up an expected outcomes post as I did…

2025 State Finals: Projections vs. REALITY

There’s so much to report on – STATE RECORDS, unexpected winners, unexpected All-Staters, clutch performers in the final mile. But an easy one to start things off – PROJECTIONS vs. the cold-hearted truth of REALITY. I didn’t have time (frankly, no clue…

02.11.2025 13:05 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Division 1 Projections Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners…

2025 Division 1 Projections

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability…

31.10.2025 13:05 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Division 2 Finals Projections Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners…

2025 Division 2 Finals Projections

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the…

30.10.2025 18:23 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Division 3 Finals Projections GIRLS TEAM The east side of Lansing is teeming with talent. Purely distance girls, mid-distance girls, hurdlers, a combination of which that is speedy on the track and title-worthy on the grass. That combination of ability led to a Lansing Catholic championship in 2024 and has positioned the Cougars as the favorite in 2025. Last year, the Cougars won on their strength from their 5th girl (

2025 Division 3 Finals Projections

GIRLS TEAM The east side of Lansing is teeming with talent. Purely distance girls, mid-distance girls, hurdlers, a combination of which that is speedy on the track and title-worthy on the grass. That combination of ability led to a Lansing Catholic championship…

30.10.2025 12:25 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Division 4 Finals Projections Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners…

2025 Division 4 Finals Projections

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work? Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the…

29.10.2025 12:46 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: River Valley Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 32 +17 +25 MIXC vs. REALITY Have you made it this far? Have you read ALL of the regional ratings? Are you worried that I won’t have time to delve into the State Final Projections? If you’ve read all of these, you’ll have noticed that the projections identified 193 of the top-3 teams. That’s not the best total of all time (197 or 198 last year, I can’t remember), but it is in line with what I expected.

2025 Ratings: River Valley Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 32 +17 +25 MIXC vs. REALITY Have you made it this far? Have you read ALL of the regional ratings? Are you worried that I won’t have time to delve into the State Final Projections? If you’ve read all of these, you’ll have noticed…

29.10.2025 01:00 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Happy Acres Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 33 +29 +27 MIXC vs. REALITY Both the boys’ and girls’ races featured heavy favorites for the top-two, then a slight favorite and slight underdog for the third spot. The boys’ race kept the same qualifiers, although Webberville moved up a spot. The 17 point difference between their projected figure and actual total was generated mainly via senior…

2025 Ratings: Happy Acres Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 33 +29 +27 MIXC vs. REALITY Both the boys’ and girls’ races featured heavy favorites for the top-two, then a slight favorite and slight underdog for the third spot. The boys’ race kept the same qualifiers, although Webberville…

29.10.2025 00:15 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Bath Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 24 +10 +7 MIXC vs. REALITY Yet another region where the projections matched the output. All of those who were thought to be qualifiers had a 95%+ chance of advancing. As someone who always love seeing new faces, I’m enthused for the Montrose Boys, who haven’t had a single runner race at MIS since 2021 and are sending a team for the first time in six years.

2025 Ratings: Bath Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 24 +10 +7 MIXC vs. REALITY Yet another region where the projections matched the output. All of those who were thought to be qualifiers had a 95%+ chance of advancing. As someone who always love seeing new faces, I’m enthused for the…

28.10.2025 23:40 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: South Christian Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 12 +4 -2 MIXC vs. REALITY Poor damn Forest Hills Eastern. Come in as the #12 team, leave without a state qualifying team in this monster of a region. Thankfully, with three powerhouses up front, additional qualifying spots went far back, all the way to 19th, and three of the Hawk girls were able to advance.

2025 Ratings: South Christian Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 12 +4 -2 MIXC vs. REALITY Poor damn Forest Hills Eastern. Come in as the #12 team, leave without a state qualifying team in this monster of a region. Thankfully, with three powerhouses up front, additional qualifying spots…

28.10.2025 22:55 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Linden Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 16 -9 -11 The only region where, in both races, I had to subtract seconds from an athletes' time! MIXC vs. REALITY The teams projected to advance were the teams that actually advanced. In the same order as well. Judging by the scoring, a few squads out-performed expectation – both of the winners, the…

2025 Ratings: Linden Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 16 -9 -11 The only region where, in both races, I had to subtract seconds from an athletes' time! MIXC vs. REALITY The teams projected to advance were the teams that actually advanced. In the same order as well. Judging by the scoring,…

28.10.2025 21:50 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Clarkston Regional The gloves are great, competing at MIS is even better Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 8 +26 +23 MIXC vs. REALITY On the quick Clintonwood course, the girls’ qualifiers went as expected, at least in terms of the teams. What was unexpected were the Rochester Adams Highlanders pulling off a victory, clinching the regional title on the sixth runner. That sixth girl was…

2025 Ratings: Clarkston Regional

The gloves are great, competing at MIS is even better Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 8 +26 +23 MIXC vs. REALITY On the quick Clintonwood course, the girls’ qualifiers went as expected, at least in terms of the teams. What was unexpected were the Rochester Adams…

28.10.2025 20:50 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Goodells Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 9 +23 +26 MIXC vs. REALITY Another region where the projected qualifiers matched the output heading to MIS. Still, there were doubts heading into the weekend. The Macomb Dakota Girls needed a quality effort and a few boys teams were in the advancement conversation. The Utica Eisenhower Boys came through in a major way.

2025 Ratings: Goodells Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 9 +23 +26 MIXC vs. REALITY Another region where the projected qualifiers matched the output heading to MIS. Still, there were doubts heading into the weekend. The Macomb Dakota Girls needed a quality effort and a few boys teams were…

28.10.2025 19:34 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Mt. Pleasant Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 2 +19 +23 MIXC vs. REALITY Team-wise, the qualifiers went as projected. The boys’ race was so open, that I expected one would be incorrect. Midland, the most consistent team in the state, held serve close to home. Milford handled the trek north and continued their late-season run of county and league titles with a state qualifier.

2025 Ratings: Mt. Pleasant Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 2 +19 +23 MIXC vs. REALITY Team-wise, the qualifiers went as projected. The boys’ race was so open, that I expected one would be incorrect. Midland, the most consistent team in the state, held serve close to home. Milford handled…

28.10.2025 18:22 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Mancelona Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 19 +22 +29 Region 28 +27 +32 Average +25 +31 MIXC vs. REALITY All the team qualifier projections were correct, save for one: the Rogers City Girls. Commonly, it’s Avery Langlois defying the numbers, this time her teammates joined her. Don’t get it twisted – Langlois still performed well, earning her third straight All-Region honor.

2025 Ratings: Mancelona Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 19 +22 +29 Region 28 +27 +32 Average +25 +31 MIXC vs. REALITY All the team qualifier projections were correct, save for one: the Rogers City Girls. Commonly, it’s Avery Langlois defying the numbers, this time her teammates joined…

28.10.2025 16:37 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Willow Regional The first qualifier since 2020 for the SMCC boys 5 in a row for the SMCC girls Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 27 +15 +18 Region 6 +15 +16 Average +15 +17 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections were fairly accurate, correct on all of the qualifying teams (and pretty much correct on all of the D3 boys’ qualifiers). But that of course doesn’t tell the whole tale of the day, as there are those that had a memorable performance, such as:

2025 Ratings: Willow Regional

The first qualifier since 2020 for the SMCC boys 5 in a row for the SMCC girls Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 27 +15 +18 Region 6 +15 +16 Average +15 +17 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections were fairly accurate, correct on all of the qualifying teams (and pretty much…

28.10.2025 14:18 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Shepherd Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 15 +18 +20 Region 30 +17 +21 Average +18 +21 MIXC vs. REALITY The Region 15 Girls race was wild. The projections thought Shepherd would be slotted in fourth, but the Bluejays would have such a great chance of placing four in the top-20, that they’d end up being favorites to advance. The home team did do that, but found their way into 3rd place.

2025 Ratings: Shepherd Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 15 +18 +20 Region 30 +17 +21 Average +18 +21 MIXC vs. REALITY The Region 15 Girls race was wild. The projections thought Shepherd would be slotted in fourth, but the Bluejays would have such a great chance of placing four in the…

28.10.2025 00:20 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Wagener Park Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 25 +23 +23 Region 35 +22 +24 Average +23 +24 MIXC vs. REALITY Region 25’s Girls race was another one of those chaotic ones and it lived up to the billing. Six girls teams were thought to have a chance, and three from that six advanced (just not the ones projected 😉). Saginaw Valley Lutheran…

2025 Ratings: Wagener Park Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 25 +23 +23 Region 35 +22 +24 Average +23 +24 MIXC vs. REALITY Region 25’s Girls race was another one of those chaotic ones and it lived up to the billing. Six girls teams were thought to have a chance, and three from that six…

27.10.2025 13:45 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Royal Oak Regional A beautiful fall day in Royal Oak. Thank you to the Egli family for the pic! Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 36 +11 +11 Region 7 +9 +14 Average +10 +13 MIXC vs. REALITY It was an even split with regard to the projections vs. reality. Projecting the team qualifiers was entirely accurate for one race of each gender and one race of each division.

2025 Ratings: Royal Oak Regional

A beautiful fall day in Royal Oak. Thank you to the Egli family for the pic! Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 36 +11 +11 Region 7 +9 +14 Average +10 +13 MIXC vs. REALITY It was an even split with regard to the projections vs. reality. Projecting the team qualifiers…

27.10.2025 12:35 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Sharp Park Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 23 +21 +19 Region 34 +21 +20 Average +21 +20 MIXC vs. REALITY Reality matched what was projection, at least on the team side of the action. Minus a bit of uncertainty from the girls’ side of Region 34, that was to be expected. Thus, you get writeups of individuals that outperformed the numbers, such as:

2025 Ratings: Sharp Park Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 23 +21 +19 Region 34 +21 +20 Average +21 +20 MIXC vs. REALITY Reality matched what was projection, at least on the team side of the action. Minus a bit of uncertainty from the girls’ side of Region 34, that was to be expected.…

27.10.2025 11:06 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Algonac Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 17 +30 +35 Region 26 +32 +37 Average +31 +36 MIXC vs. REALITY Region 26 was all chalk, Region 17’s boys did what was expected, and the girls from Marysville and Yale threw it all off. All year, the Yale girls had shown the capability of qualifying. They were actually favored to do so, but three spots were up for grabs amongst four teams, and the numbers thought the Bulldogs were on the 4th place end of it.

2025 Ratings: Algonac Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 17 +30 +35 Region 26 +32 +37 Average +31 +36 MIXC vs. REALITY Region 26 was all chalk, Region 17’s boys did what was expected, and the girls from Marysville and Yale threw it all off. All year, the Yale girls had shown the capability…

27.10.2025 00:58 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Lake Erie Regiona Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 18 +25 +30 Region 5 +20 +24 Average +23 +27 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections were correct on all of the top-three teams, many of them heavy favorites. But while that aspect of the day was non-descript (besides the Woodhaven boys making it to MIS for the first time ever), there were a few individuals that stood out, such as:

2025 Ratings: Lake Erie Regiona

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 18 +25 +30 Region 5 +20 +24 Average +23 +27 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections were correct on all of the top-three teams, many of them heavy favorites. But while that aspect of the day was non-descript (besides the Woodhaven boys…

26.10.2025 23:14 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Benzie Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 10 +38 +41 Region 20 +43 +39 Region 29 +42 +47 Average +41 +42 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections were predictive of anything that WASN’T D2. But there were some surprises (undoubtedly not surprises to the individuals, coaches, families, and supporters of those teams) relative to how the numbers turned out. One was the…

2025 Ratings: Benzie Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 10 +38 +41 Region 20 +43 +39 Region 29 +42 +47 Average +41 +42 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections were predictive of anything that WASN’T D2. But there were some surprises (undoubtedly not surprises to the individuals, coaches, families,…

26.10.2025 22:01 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Portage Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 13 +10 +15 Region 22 +12 +17 Region 3 +9 +8 Average +10 +13 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections fared a bit better than they did at Allendale, but had a few squads defy expectations, earning their trip to MIS as underdogs: Fennville GirlsSturgis GirlsCaledonia Boys Many played a role from those squads, but I’d like to shout out:

2025 Ratings: Portage Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 13 +10 +15 Region 22 +12 +17 Region 3 +9 +8 Average +10 +13 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections fared a bit better than they did at Allendale, but had a few squads defy expectations, earning their trip to MIS as underdogs: Fennville…

26.10.2025 18:51 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: Allendale Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 1 +15 +16 Region 11 +12 +12 Region 21 +17 +19 Region 31 +19 +16 Average +16 +16 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections definitely had their fair share of misses here on the west side. Among them: Holland GirlsGobles BoysMontague BoysCoopersville BoysHudsonville Boys Each of the above teams had multiple kids step up, but a few that stood out were:

2025 Ratings: Allendale Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Region 1 +15 +16 Region 11 +12 +12 Region 21 +17 +19 Region 31 +19 +16 Average +16 +16 MIXC vs. REALITY The projections definitely had their fair share of misses here on the west side. Among them: Holland GirlsGobles BoysMontague…

26.10.2025 15:37 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Ratings: DeWitt Regional Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Average Region 4 +15 +20 +18 Region 14 +18 +19 +19 MIXC vs. REALITY 11/12 on the team projections with one exception – the Williamston girls. The pre-race projections had the Hornets in 5th place, 13 points out of 3rd, and with a 17% chance of qualifying. Projected two spots out, but still having a chance, the margins were expected to be tight.

2025 Ratings: DeWitt Regional

Race Boys Adj. Girls Adj. Average Region 4 +15 +20 +18 Region 14 +18 +19 +19 MIXC vs. REALITY 11/12 on the team projections with one exception – the Williamston girls. The pre-race projections had the Hornets in 5th place, 13 points out of 3rd, and with a 17% chance…

25.10.2025 21:30 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Regional Projections: Division 1 My favorite and most controversial posts of the year! The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection. An explanation from previous years that still holds true: Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings.

2025 Regional Projections: Division 1

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year! The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a…

23.10.2025 18:17 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Regional Projections: Division 2 My favorite and most controversial posts of the year! The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection. An explanation from previous years that still holds true: Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings.

2025 Regional Projections: Division 2

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year! The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a…

23.10.2025 14:12 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

2025 Regional Projections: Division 3 My favorite and most controversial posts of the year! The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection. An explanation from previous years that still holds true: Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings.

2025 Regional Projections: Division 3

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year! The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a…

22.10.2025 13:15 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

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