Janyce McGregor

At least tariffs created SOME jobs: lobbying jobs.

@bloomberg.com
@scottlincicome.bsky.social

DHS deems collecting tariffs "essential," so will keep collecting them in the event of a government shutdown.

Meanwhile, if past USTR practice is any indication, negotiations on trade deals to obtain relief from the tariffs will pause.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...

It's not that the US can't find some way to tax its own citizens for consuming foreign movies. They can.

It's that the US probably doesn't want to fire the starting gun on the "let's tariff services" conversation for the same reason Saudi Arabia didn't bankroll Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth."

ALCOA CEO: “.. Tariffs can change very quickly, and therefore we don’t make an investment in the US based on a tariff.”

@semafor.com @beyer.house.gov
www.semafor.com/article/09/2...

👀

India says trade talks with Canada have resumed. Not yet, Canada says | CBC News Global Affairs Canada has clarified reports out of India on Friday that suggested the two countries were ready to restart bilateral trade negotiations, two years after their diplomatic rupture over th...

New from me:

www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

1/18 The U.S. Trade Representative has initiated public consultations ahead of the mandatory USMCA review on July 1, 2026. This review will determine whether the US, Mexico, and Canada extend the agreement for another 16 years.

public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-18010.pdf

Seoul eyes CPTPP to bolster economic cooperation with Japan: PM Kim Min-seok emphasizes importance of 'Asian sphere' amid US tariffs

Seoul eyes CPTPP to bolster economic cooperation with Japan: PM
https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/seoul-eyes-cptpp-to-bolster-economic-cooperation-with-japan-pm

Supreme Court to quickly consider if President Donald Trump has power to impose sweeping tariffs The Supreme Court is granting an unusually quick hearing on whether President Donald Trump has the power under federal law to impose sweeping tariffs.

BREAKING: The Supreme Court is granting an unusually quick hearing on whether President Donald Trump has the power under federal law to impose sweeping tariffs.

Interesting color in the administration's motion to SCOTUS to expedite the tariffs case from Treasury Sec. Bessent, who says the appeals court ruling on Friday against Trump's tariffs is already impacting trade talks:

"World leaders are ... walking away from or delaying negotiations," he says.

Quebec declares Northvolt battery plant partnership dead, loses $270M investment | CBC News Quebec's Northvolt project is officially dead — and the government says it is cutting its losses and investing no further money in the company.

Ouf
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

The perils of using illegal tariffs to make "trade deals":

"US Trading Partners ‘Dazed and Confused’ After Tariff Court Loss"

Oh well! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Early in my career, I got into an argument with a senior political scientist and a senior economist at a panel as they both tried to dismiss my public opinion research with the claim that public opinion about tariffs doesn’t actually matter for trade policy. Not sure why I was just
reminded of that.

Today in confusing tariff policy: Trump posted that he was going to investigate furniture tariffs. A WH official told me “the Commerce Department has initiated a Section 232 investigation into furniture imports.”

But WH has clarified to me that it’s in fact not a new investigation but… 1/

RIP, External Revenue Service: "Trump tariff agency plan stalls amid White House turf battle" www.politico.com/news/2025/08...
"Importers have received no guidance and some companies aren’t even tracking [the service] anymore"

What my kids school assignment (and Bayesian logic) teaches us about Trump's trade deals.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Trade-Offs in Trump’s Trade Policy President Donald Trump’s tariff policies create conundrums that challenge his other stated goals of winning the AI race, reindustrializing the United States, and reducing trade deficits.

Trade policy must always cope with inconsistency and unintended consequences, but Trumpian trade policy is an extreme outlier. I’ve never seen so many inconsistencies amid a profound lack of clear objectives. A negotiator’s nightmare.

Trump calls for firing of senior Labor official after job market weakens in July Trump called for the firing of the Labor statistics official after data earlier showed employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, while job gains for the previous two months were largely erased.

The job market weakened sharply during the late spring and early summer as Trump's tariffs began to take effect. Trump responded by calling for the firing of a key labor statistician.

The Looming Legal Risk Facing Trump’s Tariffs Inside the room with the judges who will decide their future.

"The Looming Legal Risk Facing Trump’s Tariffs: Inside the room with the judges who will decide their future"

Good piece on yesterday's IEEPA tariff hearing (make sure to read the interesting footnote at end!)

a map of Trump's new tariff rates

Here's what Trump's new tariff hikes look like—another 5% on major allies like the EU, Japan, & South Korea. Another 10% on large trading partners like India, Vietnam, & Canada. Some rather insane choices like 39% tariffs on Switzerland, 41% on Syria, and of course 50% on Brazil.

How Trump Let $1 Trillion Worth of Imports Escape His Tariff Hammer Exclusions reflect conflicting goals: to rip up the rules of global trade while cushioning US consumers. But the process isn’t transparent, and not everybody wins.

Ever since Trump on April 2 announced the biggest tariff increase in modern history he’s insisted there’s no exclusions available.

The thing is Trump has granted exclusions to imports worth more than $1 trillion, as we reveal in this
@bloomberg.com Big Take:

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Understandably, the focus of the analysis of Trump's tariffs/trade policy has been on the impact on imports into the U.S., but the Trump administration is also pushing for better access to foreign markets. In my latest blog post, I suggest this is another metric by which to judge his trade policy.

"Why I Signed the Economists’ Amicus Brief Challenging Trump’s Emergency Tariffs" www.cato.org/blog/why-i-s...

"There are concerns that the United States may be 'moving the goalposts' by imposing new tariffs after agreements on the threatened ones have already been reached," writes the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business.

Read here: www.csis.org/analysis/sec...

Big q on Trump Russia statements is not just whether he feels ok re oil market impact but if he is ready to countenance financial sanctions (primary +secondary) or if he is still focused on less credible secondary tariffs. working w europeans on enforcement could be more impact.

Some thoughts about the Eu-US framework and where we are in the trade war. Tldr: tariffs are up significantly since January, meaning US costs too, many questions remain including on Eu market access for ag products. USG will view approach as success

rziemba.substack.com/p/new-phase-...

I would like to submit a request that there be no more trade deal press conferences until a trade deal is actually done. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

The EU-US trade deal is here - it's probably not the end of uncertainty as the details are ironed out, but it's a momentous deal. In sum, it's a political defeat for the EU, but in economic terms I see it as, under the circumstances, a win of sorts. 🧵

Deal reached #EU #US #tarrifs 🇪🇺🇺🇸My first assessment:not satisfactory.This is a lopsided deal.Concessions have clearly been made that are difficult to accept. Deal with significant imbalance. Furthermore lot of questions still open.E.g. Standstillclause? More concrete numbers?