What my kids school assignment (and Bayesian logic) teaches us about Trump's trade deals.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
@janycemcgregor.bsky.social
Reporting on Canadian politics and international trade for @CBCNews. Raising three great kids with @michaelpetrou. "Heavy rotation on the CBC. Whatever in hell that really means." (Kathleen Edwards)
What my kids school assignment (and Bayesian logic) teaches us about Trump's trade deals.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Trade policy must always cope with inconsistency and unintended consequences, but Trumpian trade policy is an extreme outlier. Iβve never seen so many inconsistencies amid a profound lack of clear objectives. A negotiatorβs nightmare.
03.08.2025 07:31 β π 4 π 2 π¬ 0 π 0The job market weakened sharply during the late spring and early summer as Trump's tariffs began to take effect. Trump responded by calling for the firing of a key labor statistician.
01.08.2025 20:57 β π 482 π 163 π¬ 51 π 21"The Looming Legal Risk Facing Trumpβs Tariffs: Inside the room with the judges who will decide their future"
Good piece on yesterday's IEEPA tariff hearing (make sure to read the interesting footnote at end!)
a map of Trump's new tariff rates
Here's what Trump's new tariff hikes look likeβanother 5% on major allies like the EU, Japan, & South Korea. Another 10% on large trading partners like India, Vietnam, & Canada. Some rather insane choices like 39% tariffs on Switzerland, 41% on Syria, and of course 50% on Brazil.
01.08.2025 00:30 β π 246 π 63 π¬ 25 π 14Ever since Trump on April 2 announced the biggest tariff increase in modern history heβs insisted thereβs no exclusions available.
The thing is Trump has granted exclusions to imports worth more than $1 trillion, as we reveal in this
@bloomberg.com Big Take:
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Understandably, the focus of the analysis of Trump's tariffs/trade policy has been on the impact on imports into the U.S., but the Trump administration is also pushing for better access to foreign markets. In my latest blog post, I suggest this is another metric by which to judge his trade policy.
31.07.2025 11:18 β π 4 π 3 π¬ 0 π 0"Why I Signed the Economistsβ Amicus Brief Challenging Trumpβs Emergency Tariffs" www.cato.org/blog/why-i-s...
31.07.2025 12:45 β π 24 π 8 π¬ 2 π 0"There are concerns that the United States may be 'moving the goalposts' by imposing new tariffs after agreements on the threatened ones have already been reached," writes the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business.
Read here: www.csis.org/analysis/sec...
Big q on Trump Russia statements is not just whether he feels ok re oil market impact but if he is ready to countenance financial sanctions (primary +secondary) or if he is still focused on less credible secondary tariffs. working w europeans on enforcement could be more impact.
29.07.2025 19:17 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0Some thoughts about the Eu-US framework and where we are in the trade war. Tldr: tariffs are up significantly since January, meaning US costs too, many questions remain including on Eu market access for ag products. USG will view approach as success
rziemba.substack.com/p/new-phase-...
I would like to submit a request that there be no more trade deal press conferences until a trade deal is actually done. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
27.07.2025 22:09 β π 735 π 105 π¬ 20 π 6The EU-US trade deal is here - it's probably not the end of uncertainty as the details are ironed out, but it's a momentous deal. In sum, it's a political defeat for the EU, but in economic terms I see it as, under the circumstances, a win of sorts. π§΅
27.07.2025 19:00 β π 249 π 104 π¬ 35 π 30Deal reached #EU #US #tarrifs πͺπΊπΊπΈMy first assessment:not satisfactory.This is a lopsided deal.Concessions have clearly been made that are difficult to accept. Deal with significant imbalance. Furthermore lot of questions still open.E.g. Standstillclause? More concrete numbers?
27.07.2025 19:38 β π 18 π 6 π¬ 0 π 2Library of Congress
27.07.2025 02:06 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Took a break from Epstein coverage to go for a walk in downtown DC. These pix are from the outside of the DOJ building. The irony of America breaks my heart sometimes.
25.07.2025 01:11 β π 117 π 35 π¬ 7 π 3Australia to allow NAFTA beef:
"Since 2019 Australia has allowed US beef into the country but had concerns about cattle born in Mexico and Canada that was slaughtered in America, resulting in no beef coming from the US to Australia because supply chains are largely integrated between the countries"
Will all the digital firms that have been proactively collecting the cost of the DST from their customers for months now in anticipation of todayβs remittance now be refunding these extra inflationary charges?
30.06.2025 15:08 β π 6 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0how times have changed. G7 Kananaskis chair's summary comments on trade and climate change, 2002
1/4
IYKYK:
www.cbc.ca/newsinteract...
Marc Garneau's passing sent me back to a more personal interview I did with him for this story I wrote over a decade ago. Turned out to be a treat to re-read in retrospect for all sorts of reasons... so re-upping in case you want to join me on memory lane:
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
To everyone chattering about how Canada should or could join the EU, I would like to put a basic question:
If these allies/trade partners can't even finish ratifying CETA, how the h-e-hockey sticks can we even contemplate a political conversation on membership?
Perhaps bandwidth should refocus.
The way my Lenten Rose is just bursting⦠so satisfying
04.05.2025 22:08 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0ICYMI yesterday - link to listen in this story:
www.cbc.ca/news/politic...
Personal plug!
I've had a side project on the go while also covering daily (election! trade!) news for the last few months.
I'm hopeful it lands at a poignant moment as we're all thinking carefully about disinformation.
Airing on CBC Radio One at noon... or listen here:
www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...
If you're near your radio tomorrow, I hope you'll tune in:
www.cbc.ca/programguide...
(And if you aren't: this special feature is also a podcast...
URL to follow)
@CBCWorldReport @CBCTheHouse
The new critical minerals Section 232 investigation will also cover "derivative products β the manufactured goods incorporating them."
That could make this a pretty big deal.
I feel compelled to point out -- no laughing please! -- that Congress could put a stop to this tariff nonsense.
02.04.2025 22:19 β π 195 π 31 π¬ 8 π 3