ECFR MENA

Iran Commemorates Revolution, With U.S. Warships Lurking Off the Coast The authoritarian clerical regime in Tehran came to power in 1979. Today, it presides over a country that is deeply polarized and under threat of an American attack.

📰 With US warships on Iran's shores & threat of war looming, the Islamic Republic is marking its 47th year as one of "resistance and defiance to US hegemony," selling this as a "holy war" to their ideological base, comments Ellie Geranmayeh for @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/w...

Humanitarian intervention without Council approval is exceptional and must address an imminent massacre, not past abuses. Europe should avoid signalling support for a US strike; endorsing unlawful force would further weaken the rules-based order it claims to defend.

Under the UN Charter, force is lawful only in self-defence or with UNSC authorisation. The case for self-defence is unconvincing: setbacks to Iran’s nuclear programme and stalled diplomacy do not justify force.

🧵 US-Iran talks aim to avert escalation, but the risk of another US strike persists. Given Europe's defence of the UN Charter in other conflicts, it should acknowledge that a US attack on Iran now would likely breach international law @anthonydworkin.bsky.social 👇 buff.ly/uKl7jp6

Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war – European Council on Foreign Relations Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent ren

Preventing wider regional conflict will require sustained US engagement and a willingness in Washington to exercise restraint vis-à-vis Israeli escalation. Europe and its Arab partners should entice Trump with the prospect of deals, rather than more war. ecfr.eu/article/sell...

Europe's priorities should be to:
> Frame diplomacy with Iran as a strategic “win” for the US president
> Coordinate with Arab partners to reduce regional momentum toward escalation
> Offer pathways to visible diplomatic outcomes Trump can claim domestically

Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war – European Council on Foreign Relations Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent ren

🧵 With Trump and Netanyahu meeting today, the risk of regional escalation remains real but not predetermined. The key variable is whether external actors can shape the strategic environment around Trump’s decision-making, argues @boppenheim.bsky.social👇 ecfr.eu/article/sell...

Women of Middle East network for peacebuilding – European Council on Foreign Relations The conversation around achieving peace and prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa needs to become more inclusive and diverse, through an injection of f

5/ To find out about ECFR's Women of the Middle East Network for Peacebuilding, connect with leading regional voices, and listen to previous podcast episodes go to: buff.ly/l4rQn6O

Trump’s Iran choice: Regional takes – European Council on Foreign Relations In this episode of ECFR’s WOMENP podcast, Ellie Geranmayeh welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş , associate senior policy follow at ECFR, Dina Esfandiary , Middle East geo

4/ @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social: Ankara is trying to "organise a regional bloc that can communicate to the world and the Trump administration that the region does not want war." Turkey "is not ready for a more radical Iran, or a more pro-American, pro-Israel Iran." buff.ly/OOMHKxm

3/ Yasmine Farouk unpacks how Gulf states differ in how they approach and what they want from diplomacy with Tehran: "GCC countries prefer an orderly transition or a clear shift in [Iran's] behaviour. For them the issue is less the nature of the regime, but more its conduct."

2/ Dina Esfandiary explores Iran's domestic debate on including regional actors in a diplomatic track. Some "believe that if there is a bigger group of countries that are part of the negotiations, this will help counterbalance Israel's influence on the Trump administration."

🎙️ In the latest @ecfr.eu WOMENP podcast episode, Ellie Geranmayeh speak to @asliaydintasbas.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary & Yasmine Farouk to unpack how Iran's neighbours view the domestic turmoil following brutal crackdowns and the increasing risk of US military strikes 👇 buff.ly/OOMHKxm

World’s biggest shipping company facilitates trade from Israeli settlements Commercial documents shed light on hundreds of shipments from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.

📰 “Human rights abuses should be a core criterion for deciding what to buy and what to invest in. But in the current global attitude, that approach has been increasingly undermined” @hlovatt.bsky.social for @aljazeera.com on EU trade with Israeli settlements 👇 www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...

Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war – European Council on Foreign Relations Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent ren

✍️ Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump & Netanyahu to prevent renewed offensives in both arenas, while supporting Lebanon’s fragile governance. @boppenheim.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/sell...

Tech Rout Deepens, Double Central Bank Decision Day | The Pulse 2/5/2026 The global tech selloff deepened overnight, as an initial rout in software stocks extended to chipmakers. Tepid earnings from Arm, Qualcomm and Alphabet did little to improve sentiment. Hundreds of…

🎙️ For @bloomberg.com, Ellie Geranmayeh comments on US-Iranian talks in Oman 👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tz2...

Selling peace to Trump: How Europe can prevent the next Middle East war – European Council on Foreign Relations Israel is agitating for US strikes against Iran, while preparing for renewed war in Lebanon. Europeans should work to contain Trump and Netanyahu to prevent ren

📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by @boppenheim.bsky.social: Europeans should work to contain Trump & Netanyahu to prevent renewed offensives in Iran & Lebanon , while supporting Lebanon’s fragile governance Read the piece here 👇 ecfr.eu/article/sell...

« Aucun des deux pays ne souhaite la guerre, mais ils semblent se préparer au pire » : entre l’Algérie et le Maroc, une inquiétante course aux armements ANALYSE. Les budgets de défense cumulés des deux pays dépassent pour la première fois les 60 milliards d’euros, alors que le statu quo demeure précaire sur la question de la souveraineté du Sahara occ...

📰"The fact that Morocco is collaborating with Israel is perceived as a provocation, for both ideological and military reasons" comments @anthonydworkin.bsky.social in
@lemonde.fr. "This could give them a significant advantage." www.lemonde.fr/afrique/arti...

Power struggle: What the Saudi-UAE rivalry means for the Red Sea—and Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations The Saudi-UAE clash is reshaping dynamics across Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Europe needs to pay attention as new alignments crystallise against what is incre

✍️ "After years of simmering competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, their clash is having an impact beyond Yemen and into the wider Red Sea region. This is reshuffling regional alliances and threatening to further destabilise Red Sea geopolitics." @CamilleLons ecfr.eu/article/powe...

Power struggle: What the Saudi-UAE rivalry means for the Red Sea—and Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations The Saudi-UAE clash is reshaping dynamics across Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Europe needs to pay attention as new alignments crystallise against what is incre

📃 NEW commentary by @camillelons.bsky.social: The Saudi-UAE clash is reshaping dynamics across Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Europe needs to pay attention as new alignments crystallise against what is increasingly framed as a UAE-Israel-Ethiopia axis 👇 ecfr.eu/article/powe...

How does US military build-up off Iran compare to the June 2025 strikes? And could a sudden deployment of major US naval and air force assets indicate a strike on Iran is imminent?

📰 “If America launches significant attacks, possibly with a regime change endgame, Tehran is likely to directly increase the cost to Trump in an election year by targeting American soldiers stationed across the Middle East” Ellie Geranmayeh for @aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...

Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants – European Council on Foreign Relations The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, p

✍️ "The past two decades of US military intervention in similar contexts suggests more bloodshed and instability, while also hollowing out the economy and sidelining moderate forces pushing for democratic change", Ellie Geranmayeh on US escalation in Iran ecfr.eu/article/trap...

Saudi defense deals could change Middle East security Riyadh is in talks with Somalia, Egypt and Turkey about two new defense pacts. What impact will they have if they go ahead?

📰 @cinziabianco.bsky.social comments on the low likelihood of a severe rupture between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, despite Saudi Arabia's new security deals, for @deutschewelle.dw.com www.dw.com/en/saudi-def...

Traps and limits: Why Trump bombing Iran won’t deliver what he wants – European Council on Foreign Relations The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to restrain Trump’s military attacks, p

📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by Ellie Geranmayeh: The US is locked in a cat-and-mouse game of escalation with Iran. Europeans should work with partners in the Middle East to press Tehran & Trump towards a quick de-escalation off-ramp. Read the piece here 👇 ecfr.eu/article/trap...

Welcome to the jungle: Trump’s Board of Peace goes global – European Council on Foreign Relations The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to t

✍️ "The mixture of private investment funds with American power and geopolitics, combined with likely opaque decision-making and financial expenditure is a recipe for kleptocratic oligarchy" writes @hlovatt.bsky.social about Trump's newly-formed Board of Peace 👇 ecfr.eu/article/welc...

Welcome to the jungle: Trump’s Board of Peace goes global – European Council on Foreign Relations The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to t

✍️ The US president’s Board of Peace has less to do with peace, in Gaza or elsewhere, and more to do with enforcing a new, transactional global order. Welcome to the America-First Trumpian world. @hlovatt.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/welc...

My longer read for @ecfr.eu on what Trump's Board of Peace means for Gaza, Europe's quest for strategic autonomy, and the future of the global order:

ecfr.eu/article/welc...

Members of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which will report to the Board of Peace via High Representative Nikolay Mladenov, were announced last week. For a full breakdown, visit @ecfr.eu's Mapping Palestinian Politics project 👇 ecfr.eu/special/mapp...

How Europe can help Iranians break the internet shutdown – European Council on Foreign Relations Tehran has used a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests and control information flows. French and UK governments can use their own satellite t

As Iran's regime uses a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests & control information flows, French & UK governments can use their own satellite terminals to provide Iranians with independent internet access, write Ellie Geranmayeh & @giorgosverdi.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/how-...

From partners to rivals: What the Saudi-UAE rupture means for Europeans  – European Council on Foreign Relations Saudi Arabia and the UAE are experiencing a fracture in their diplomatic relationship. Europeans need to understand the potential impact on their economic and p

✍️ A brief momentum for a Gulf front collapsed as strained Saudi-Emirati relations gave way to open rivalry, driven by mistrust and suspicions of parallel agendas. @cinziabianco.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu on the Saudi–UAE rupture and the European angle 👇 buff.ly/TUk8Evm

How Europe can help Iranians break the internet shutdown – European Council on Foreign Relations Tehran has used a communications blackout to suppress nationwide protests and control information flows. French and UK governments can use their own satellite t

3/ French & UK governments can use their own satellite terminals to provide Iranians with internet access independent of Starlink. They should now swiftly approve the deployment of Eutelstat & pool European gov funding to back it. Read more on why & how 👇 buff.ly/MSC3o8S