Fox Sparrow

Heavy lifting to get it all the way up to only -5 approval for Trump.

But the senate will never vote on it. Where does it go after next week?

My chicken bones that I threw on the ground also said we would have a snowy and cold winter. No need to check NOAA’s 3 month outlook based on much better data and a far more accurate record. Seriously though I enjoy the 🥶 especially knowing how much rarer it will be in the future.

How do you reach a deal with a party that just cut healthcare for the poor while also giving massive tax cuts to the wealthy as their one big signature bill?

Even in optimistic scenarios, it seems near impossible to avoid 2C of warming considering it’s only 2 decades away at current rates of warming (.25-.30 warming per decade). If this burst of warming acceleration since 2023 continues then forget about it.

They shouldn’t be using RCP obviously.

Well, could it recover in 12 months? I think as a required prerequisite, the Tariffs would have to mostly end in the next few months for any kind of turnaround. Otherwise, Trumps numbers could get really negative by next summer.

The key difference between the 2018 midterms and 2026 midterms is that the 2026 economy could be in much much worse shape than 2018. That could create something much bigger than just D+8.

Why would she not repeal that? Why did she promise that?

😧

Where is he?

This poll is only of adults but similar to other online polls. We won’t have a clear view of what the margin will be until at least the summer. The election margins this Tuesday will be far more informative at the moment.

We are already past 1.5 after the next El Niño event, not a useful goal at this point sadly.

“The oldest continuous ice core extends back 800 ky, though discontinuous ice cores from the Allan Hills blue ice area (BIA) have been shown to preserve snapshots of ice and air back to at least 2.7 million years ago (Ma).”

I guess by actually reading the paper I answer my own question.

How far back do ice measurements of CO2 go? Would this be the earliest measurement when published?

Gallup now shows party preference as Dem +7. I think most polls have weighting that would be more like GOP +2. Not saying they are wrong, but I think we need to see some actuall elections to see where this country is really at.

I would argue it’s more of a VA 2017 Governor’s race situation. I’ll start panicking when the next Quinnipiac poll shows it really close.

Reminds me of the VA governor’s race in 2017.

Ok, I’ll start with the first one. Thanks!

Are these good books? Anything you would compare them to? I need more audio books.

These races (NY, VA and NJ), forget about them. None of them will be close. I guess the margins of victory will be more important but otherwise zzzz.

Isn’t this the place we should look for warming acceleration rather than surface temperatures? I understand it might take another decade to rule out short term variability. However, this is where more than 90% of the warming will end up (the oceans).

It’s a GOP funded poll I’m guessing. I wouldn’t worry about GA in 2026.

People need to connect rising food prices to climate change. It isn’t just disruptions to supply because of tariffs etc. This will be a permanent challenge going forward.

Im young enough to remember when Rasmussen had Trump with positive approval ratings right after January 6th 2021. It can’t be emphasized enough that they should never be taken seriously.

That kind of assumption is unfortunately used for a lot of careers….nursing, teaching, etc. All jobs should be workable to age 60 at least.

PowerPoint allows for consistency…. in using abundant visual learning, follow up questions etc.

On a similar note:

The 50 senators who voted against this bill represent approximately 379.77 million people.

The 50 senators who voted for this bill represent approximately 298.41 million people.

I will look at everyone of them, but I can’t think of a more pointless exercise than polling the VA, NJ or NY races for this fall. They will all be Dem blowouts unless something like a Mark Robinson happens.

With those 2 union endorsements, Mamdani is in good position to win. Plus he’s just a really good politician.