The 22nd Century Initiative

Authoritarian Expansion Scenarios A Strategic Thought Exercise

Scenario planning about what authoritarians might do helps us understand the stakes antiauthoritarianplaybook.substack.com/p/authoritar...

BREAKING: Lawsuit challenges violent Illinois ICE enforcement. Press, clergy, and protesters sue DHS for violating First Amendment

BREAKING: Today, we're suing. Federal forces in the Chicago area are brutally suppressing free speech with tear gas, rubber bullets, and flash grenades. Journalists, clergy, and demonstrators have been attacked for peacefully protesting against the government. This is an unconstitutional assault.

Fixing the Future Despite national headwinds of racism and authoritarianism, California’s Black legislators stay on task with reparations.

"How do you advance Black reparations when the federal government has fully embraced anti-Blackness and is hellbent on wiping out racial justice and Black history itself?

The answer? Just do it."

💯💯💯💯💯

www.laprogressive.com/california-p...

Chicago is our heartland, a center of art and architecture, theater and improv. It is a melding of people from across races & places, where the Great Migration drew the brave against all odds. Chicago rose from the ashes, re-routed the river & will always stand strong.

Must-Reads and the War on Chicago "Chicagoans will not be a conquered people."

I have a full day today, but I woke up early to put this edition of my newsletter together because I need you all to have this rundown of what we've been up against this week in Chicago as the federal assault on our city continues. To ignore these developments would be a damning mistake for us all.

ICE admits that up to 50% of arrests in its Chicago raids are "collateral.” These aren't statistics. They are parents taken from their children, neighbors taken from our communities. When does a "collateral" U.S. citizen child's trauma matter? This isn't law enforcement; it's a campaign of terror.

ICE Is Buying a Tool to Track Hundreds of Millions of Phones, Without Warrants Trump is quietly building a surveillance state, and almost no one is paying attention.

🚨ICE Is Buying a Tool to Track Hundreds of Millions of Phones, Without Warrants

Please read, share, and sound the alarm

'Dad Went to War': The Radical Faith Behind the Minnesota Assassinations The killing of Melissa and Mark Hortman highlights the danger of radicalized religion and America’s escalating antiabortion violence.

PRA's @fredclarkson.bsky.social speaks with @jodi-enda.bsky.social in @msmagazine.com about the New Apostolic Reformation movement's link to the killing of Melissa and Mark Hortman. Learn more in this four-part series on the rise in anti-abortion violence under Trump: msmagazine.com/2025/09/18/r....

Jimmy Kimmel and the Power of Public Pressure The comedian has returned to late-night TV. What can the response to his suspension teach us about countering Trump?

“You don’t necessarily need people doing things that are high-risk. You just need large numbers of people doing them,” says Hardy Merriman in an episode of @newyorker.com’s ‘The Political Scene’ discussing strategies of resistance in a backsliding democracy. Tune in now!

The Three R's Framework Narrative and Cultural Strategies Against Autocracy

Authoritarians want us to think they're inevitable, invincible, and indispensable. They're not. To build power, we can refuse, resist, and ridicule. antiauthoritarianplaybook.substack.com/p/the-three-...

Yes, We Are Afraid But No, We Will Not Allow Fear To Paralyze Us

Visible, mass, sustained resistance is more important than ever right now - it's what stops authoritarian consolidation. antiauthoritarianplaybook.substack.com/p/yes-we-are...

Protect Oregon Every week, we deliver key updates from the organizations coming together to protect our communities and build a better future here in Oregon.

People throughout Portland and beyond are coming together to oppose politically motivated attacks on communities. www.protect-oregon.com/no-military-...

Why Jimmy Kimmel Was Reinstated The Power of Economic Pressure and Collective Action

Jimmy Kimmel’s reinstatement shows that corporations are vulnerable to speedy mass action across a large coalition. But without sustained strategic action, authoritarian pressure can create lasting institutional damage. antiauthoritarianplaybook.substack.com/p/why-jimmy-...

Feeling powerless doesn’t mean you are powerless Fear and power are being used to silence dissent. But the protests over Disney censoring Jimmy Kimmel shows people are finding courage.

It is easy to feel overwhelmed in the face of so much wrong, writes Daniel Hunter. But the growing chorus of dissent over Disney censoring Jimmy Kimmel shows people are finding courage. #BoycottDisney

Stories of Resistance Narrative Strategies for Democratic Movements

Authoritarian systems thrive by controlling narrative, determining which stories are told, whose voices matter, and what futures can be imagined. Countering these systems requires not just political organization but narrative reclamation. antiauthoritarianplaybook.substack.com/p/stories-of...

What Is Political Violence? - Boston Review Pundits and politicians conceal the truth: it’s all around us, perpetrated by our political system itself.

“What is repressed is the violence of order itself; what is disavowed is our own entanglement with it and ethical responsibility to confront it. In this scheme, ‘political violence’ can only be what threatens this system, not what the system itself does.”

New from @eric-reinhart.com:

Understanding Pluralism The Foundation of Democratic Resilience

In an era marked by rising authoritarianism, democratic backsliding, and increasing polarization worldwide, understanding pluralism has never been more critical.

We created the Faithful Fight series with @horizonsprjt.bsky.social to help religious communities continue their tradition as key defenders of democracy. Read and share: https://protectdemocracy.org/work/the-faithful-fight

By making Disney/ABC change course on Jimmy Kimmel, we showed that when we unite and act together, we win!

Celebrate this victory, call on Nexstar and Sinclair to follow suit & demand these corporations refuse to comply with future MAGA regime attacks on our freedoms."

Keep up the pressure.

Oregon Authoritarian Vulnerability Assessment Scenarios, Threats, and Strategic Response Analysis

Here's our assessment of OR. Oregonians, what did we miss? Everyone else, what's yours? antiauthoritarianplaybook.substack.com/p/oregon-aut...

We need strategy that ensures local response everywhere avoids reactive violence, political sectarianism, institutional abandonment, elite-only strategies, and authoritarian accommodation and appeasement.

The most helpful things we can do right now are commit to strategic nonviolent action, build and fortify mutual aid and community protection, build coalitions across difference, and develop narrative and communications infrastructure to counter mis/disinfo and drive a vision of what's possible.

Now, develop your strategic response. Set immediate priorities like protecting election infrastructure and setting up community defense and safety infrastructure. Organize toward reforms and accountability, and build bridges. Strengthen the foundation for long-term transformation.

In your state, what constitutional and legal protections exist? What are the political and institutional strengths? What are the cultural and social protections?

Of course, we also need to consider strengths, including potentially stabilizing issues where there are common needs across communities. In OR that means economic development, infrastructure and transportation, and natural disaster response.

Finally, what are the vulnerable policy areas in your state? Consider gains that have been made for community safety, LGBTQIA+ rights, environmental protections, and immigration and sanctuary policies.

It's also important to surface specific threat vectors and their likelihood. In OR, militias may harass electeds, rights may be rolled back, and election admin may be infiltrated; constitutional sheriffing may expand, target violence is possible, and corporate coercion could happen.

Next, draw out plausible scenarios. What state or non-state actors could escalate or comply with authoritarians at the federal level? How likely is each scenario? What are possible trigger events, escalation patterns, and obedience in advance responses?

Start with what makes your state unique, especially vulnerabilities. What are the cultural and historical foundations? Demographic vulnerabilities? Institutional vulnerabilities? OR's legacy of racial exclusion, urban-rural divides, and institutional weaknesses create specific risk patterns.

Oregon Authoritarian Vulnerability Assessment Scenarios, Threats, and Strategic Response Analysis

State by state, we need to fortify anti-authoritarian resistance strategies while building a resilient, sustainable movement for liberatory democracy. Here's an example of a strategic assessment and steps you can take with your people 🧵 antiauthoritarianplaybook.substack.com/p/oregon-aut...