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Somerandomguy

@pisomerandomguy.bsky.social

Slightly left of center. Anti-anti-optimistic. No more or less random than anyone else. Data analyst/scientist by trade, election forecaster by hobby. Episcopalian, Ace, Xennial, #ActuallyAutistic. Chicagoan. https://pisomerandomguy.substack.com/archive

115 Followers  |  248 Following  |  195 Posts  |  Joined: 03.07.2023  |  2.1033

Latest posts by pisomerandomguy.bsky.social on Bluesky

Catalist says that, if anything, it decreased by the tiniest amount.

20.05.2025 15:14 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

... but when voter turnout goes up it's often both the cause and effect of bad things.

The majority of the country that is low enough on conscientiousness and interest in politics that they don't reliably vote maybe shouldn't! (2/2)

21.02.2025 20:11 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I honestly think the world is better when voter turnout is lower.

I don't like thinking that way because I have a strong moral view that voting is important, and in theoretical principle democracy would be better if everyone voted all the time ... (1/2)

21.02.2025 20:11 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

2 fucking headlines right next to each other

21.02.2025 18:43 β€” πŸ‘ 3542    πŸ” 1538    πŸ’¬ 83    πŸ“Œ 72

On Gabbard (like with RFK) I think we’re going to find out years from now that people close to the White House directly threatened senators with more than just the possibility of a primary.

11.02.2025 00:57 β€” πŸ‘ 324    πŸ” 58    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 5

we should probably teach kids to code more just to demystify this shit. like it’s not easy, but it’s very learnable. letting people think Being Good At Computer makes you a genius polymath has been such a disaster.

06.02.2025 05:26 β€” πŸ‘ 2370    πŸ” 405    πŸ’¬ 66    πŸ“Œ 30

there is no central election infrastructure in the united states

06.02.2025 05:37 β€” πŸ‘ 526    πŸ” 43    πŸ’¬ 24    πŸ“Œ 4

you can tell the leftists who say both sides are the same are lying because there's only one side where they feel like they're in physical danger if they protest it

01.02.2025 16:26 β€” πŸ‘ 229    πŸ” 40    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 2

cannot be said enough that for a decade a critical number of americans have simply refused to accept that he means what he says

02.02.2025 01:44 β€” πŸ‘ 47285    πŸ” 6568    πŸ’¬ 1219    πŸ“Œ 240

economically this administration is basically Herbert Hoover's tariff policy mixed with Liz Truss level cuts

the social policy is basically Miller's immigration restrictionism mixed with postliberal/NatCon

i do not think this is a plausible social formation for long term governance

02.02.2025 00:38 β€” πŸ‘ 1014    πŸ” 139    πŸ’¬ 25    πŸ“Œ 12

I think this might be assuming too much logic/competence from Trump. Are you sure he actually considered people with higher rank than Hegseth, or that even if he did he valued rank highly in his decision?

01.02.2025 21:13 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah, what not enough people are considering is that the impact of these tariffs on America doesn't end at whatever inflation/currency things happen.

There will be retaliatory actions and they will hurt in their own ways!

01.02.2025 20:00 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Good morning. It is currently 10am EST. If you believe the President, ostensibly you now have to pay massive tariffs on roughly 43% of all goods brought into the United States. Yet there is STILL not any official documentation on any of this.

01.02.2025 15:11 β€” πŸ‘ 2212    πŸ” 423    πŸ’¬ 67    πŸ“Œ 55

The funniest thing is that "can you trace your ancestry in the US back to 1776" would exclude a higher % of White Americans than Black Americans.

31.01.2025 15:48 β€” πŸ‘ 99    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

Gesticulates

31.01.2025 03:55 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
A chart showing egg prices surging to historic highs under Trump

A chart showing egg prices surging to historic highs under Trump

A chart showing coffee prices surging to historic highs under Trump

A chart showing coffee prices surging to historic highs under Trump

Trump's War On Breakfast

30.01.2025 02:08 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Of course, some of this will get shut down by courts etc. but some of this is going to slip through. And I'm just going by what he's done/talked about in the first week, I'm sure there will be more.

ICE raids and militarizing the border are probably popular but that's pretty much it.

28.01.2025 18:12 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

- Jan 6 pardons (people don't care much, but unpopular in the abstract)
- Funding freezes
- Ending birthright citizenship, esp. for even children of documented workers
- Tariffs are mixed in popularity in the abstract but the corresponding price increases are definitely not

28.01.2025 18:12 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

(Unfortunately, this is certainly not meant as a statement that it will not work)

28.01.2025 17:30 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Traditionally, authoritarians trying to consolidate power in democracies try to do popular things to get people on their side so they have support for crackdowns and consolidation of power, and then they do the less popular things once they have the power.

Trump's strategy seems ... different.

28.01.2025 17:27 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

AYITL is so terrible. I refuse to accept it as canon.

28.01.2025 03:31 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

yeah I have friends with autism who are socially awkward (and friends with autism who aren't!) and the thing that often stresses them out is the thought that they might accidentally cause pain

24.01.2025 04:50 β€” πŸ‘ 420    πŸ” 40    πŸ’¬ 13    πŸ“Œ 2

That doesn't seem like a great explanation for why the big surge is with 12th-graders in 2017, though?

24.01.2025 00:41 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image 21.01.2025 04:38 β€” πŸ‘ 367    πŸ” 77    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1

But there's definitely nothing to see here.

19.01.2025 23:04 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

And the ban passed committee unanimously with support from Ds and Rs across the ideological spectrum after they viewed classified material about it ...

19.01.2025 23:04 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Senators get "shocking" look at TikTok's spy potential Americans would be frightened by the app's ability to access and track their personal data, lawmakers say.

And also ...
www.axios.com/2024/03/21/s...

19.01.2025 23:04 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

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