@callum-makkai.bsky.social
Quantitative trader focused on small cap equities
From Top Traders Unplugged: SI359: Trend Following in a World That Loves Bubbles ft. Mark Rzepczynski, Aug 2, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t...
“Now, what do you need for a bubble? The best analogy is that we use a fire analogy.
In a fire analogy … the market structure is your oxygen, you know, your heat is speculation, and then the fuel is leverage.”
#markets #stockmarket
From Top Traders Unplugged: GM85: What If the Real Risk Isn’t Recession — But Reinvention? ft. Steven Bell, Jul 30, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t...
“equities are expensive, but they typically go up when they're expensive in the near term.
In the longer term, they go down. Well, hang on a second, how can that be? And the answer is, when you get a recession, expensive equities fall further.”
#stocks #stockmarket #investing
From The Real Eisman Playbook: The Secrets of the Short Seller Part 2: The Blueprint for Strategy & Survival, Jul 28, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t...
“buying something and sitting back and watching it go up is cheerleading. But being short of stock is like going to war. It's an entirely different experience, and it requires an entirely different mindset.”
#trading #shortselling
As I was picking blueberries on a beautiful sunny day, I found myself reaching for the higher branches. At some point in the season, high-hanging fruit becomes the new low-hanging fruit. Somewhere there’s some #trading wisdom, I thought, and returned home to continue working on some regressions.
19.07.2025 05:16 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0“Well, this is the danger. I'll bring it back to the Fed again. If the Fed were to cut prematurely and the long end yields started to move higher, credit spreads would widen dramatically.”
From On The Tape with Danny Moses: Cameron Dawson: Where Is My Mind?, Jul 16, 2025
“if credit spreads don't confirm the new highs in stocks, that's your signal … that tells you that the credit market is saying, hey, equities, have fun dreaming the dream. We're looking at fundamentals and they don't look so hot.”
#markets #investing #stocks #bonds
Novice traders start their search for an edge by back testing. They should start with regression instead. #trading #quant
12.07.2025 18:05 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0From Odd Lots: Giuseppe Paleologo on Quant Investing at Multi-Strat Hedge Funds, Jun 21, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/o...
“Instead of trying to act on regime changes in the environment, try to detect changes in the behavior of the portfolio manager and act on that because that works, I think.”
#markets #trading
From Alpha Exchange: Benn Eifert, Founder and CIO, QVR Advisors, Jun 30, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/a...
“stock prices can kind of be whatever they want to be in a sense over any meaningful time frame, unless there's a catalyst that forces them to come back down.”
#markets #stocks #trading
From Alpha Exchange: Benn Eifert, Founder and CIO, QVR Advisors, Jun 30, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/a...
“Anytime you have like a really first order thinking kind of view, oh, that thing is high so you should sell it or it's low so you should buy it, you're probably wrong. Markets aren't stupid.”
#markets #trading #investing
From GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish: Is America Great Again?, Jul 4, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/g...
“the private sector is driving when there is a more kind of demand-led regime. The government sector is driving when there is a more negative supply shock-led regime because the quality of the asset being created by the government's debt is deteriorated as a hedge for equities.”
#markets
From The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing: Victor Haghani on Predicting the Market and Disciplined Asset Allocation | #588, Jun 27, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t...
“if you choose the right things to buy and the right things to sell, if you make the right decisions about what to trade, you know, what's going up and what's going down, but you size it incorrectly, you can go bankrupt”
“the sizing question is even more critical than the what question.”
#trading
Most people and even professional equity investors don’t have the stomach for a drawdown of 50%.
The top 6 companies in terms of cumulative value add in the global stock market through history suffered a max drawdown of 80%.
Amazon had a drawdown of 95%
If you can’t handle it, don’t play.
From Top Traders Unplugged: OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar, Jul 2, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t...
“the math behind the trade structuring will literally account for 90% of your track records performance over a multi-decade period.”
#trading #markets
From Alpha Exchange: Sayings on Vol and Risk...A Fresh 10, Jun 14, 2025
podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/a...
“In markets, losses typically coincide with conditions that have become more volatile, further amplifying your effective leverage. You wind up with less chips playing in a looser game.”
#markets #trading
“the deficit is Wall Street's version of virtue signaling.”
From The Compound and Friends: The Next Big Short is the Trade War, Jun 13, 2025
#markets #investing #wallstreet
“Boosting is very beneficial if we want to learn from the wide and heterogeneous sets of markets over time, and is very well suited for exploiting the diversity of experiences across currency areas, emerging markets and developed markets into one.”
08.06.2025 00:48 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
“random forest works very well when the relations between the macroeconomic factors and the returns have many facets and are not monotonic, and there are no clear theoretical priors.”
#quant #markets
Macro Hive: Ep. 311: Ralph Sueppel on Quant Trading Macro the Right Way, Jun 5, 2025
“But we never found them really more useful than them, say more. I would say that the humbler approach in just measuring the degree of headwinds or tailwinds for certain markets, not in a discrete form, but in a continuous form, almost like probabilities or strength of headwind and tailwind.”
08.06.2025 00:41 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
