Dave Zaff

Here’s 9 minutes of “Little Things” by Dogs in a Pile. Sub theme, “But don't you worry 'bout the weather tonight”

youtu.be/uoR1SP74BA8

Full lyrics:

go-set.net/song/little-...

The official NWS forecast showing the probability of precipitation for Saturday using the 733 AM issuance showed a 50% chance for at least 0.01” of rain for the D.C area through 600 PM,

The NWS forecast Saturday morning was 50%.

Kudos to Geologists for saving lives!

Where does your weather forecast come from? Whether you get your forecast from an app on your phone, a website or a meteorologist on TV, most of the underlying information comes from the federal government.

Whether you get your forecast from an app on your phone, a website or a meteorologist on TV, most of the underlying information comes from the federal government.
By @rhersher.bsky.social

Google Maps live traffic is an indicator of the general swath of impact from the tornado in the STL metro. Multiple schools, residential areas, and a major interstate highway in its path

We need data, Unidata.

A search for ‘NOAA’ in today’s news turns up multiple troubling articles regarding cutback, along with other issues.

A search for ‘NOAA’ in today’s news turns up multiple troubling articles regarding cutback, along with other issues.

Searching for NOAA in today’s news…

Reflections on a day of change Thoughts on transitions at NOAA

More than 1,000 of my former NOAA colleagues left the agency in one day yesterday. I've been seeing a continuous stream of retirement announcements unlike anything I've ever experienced. It's brought a lot of emotions - I talked about them here.

open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

Shelf cloud above East Aurora NY.

KBUF reflectivity and velocity.

Nice little shelf cloud in Western NY this eve. 5/1/25 2249Z.

Mesoscale marine effects on Lake Erie.

There is a 30-44% chance of severe weather over Western NY and PA on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, and a 10% chance for significant severe weather, defined as: A tornado that produces EF2 or greater damage. Wind speeds of 75 mph (65 knots) or greater. Hail 2 inch in diameter or larger.

A rare Day 3 (Tuesday) convective outlook for Western NY and PA. (30-44% chance for severe weather within 25 mi.)

10% chance for significant severe weather, defined in alt text.

A few offices have to drive to the launch site and back. (In the winter, this means clearing snow off the vehicle.)

Again I reiterate, the Warn-on-Forecast project is the culmination of stellar work done by all of us on the team. We’ve heard the success stories, we know the community support, and we have so much to learn to make it even better.

This is ONE example of bleeding-edge research that deserves to stay.

Special BalancedWx Update: NOAA statement about impacts of NWS staff reductions And a quick evening severe weather update

ICYMI: NOAA released a statement to NBC News last night in defense of their cuts to NWS. I broke down why it's ludicrous.

balancedweather.substack.com/p/special-ba...

Dislike.

Oneida Lake is showing off it's lake shadow early this afternoon. Not bad for a little guy compared to Lake Ontario.

This would be nothing short of CATACLYSMIC. I do not put this lightly…

Not just NOAA websites, but it will severely affect NWS warning systems, MRMS radar data accessibility, model data accessibility, and more, for services provided by AWS and Google Cloud Platform. Scientific growth will be hurt.

US Weather Agency Websites to Vanish Under Planned Contract Cuts The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency is poised to eliminate most websites tied to its research division under plans for the cancellation of a cloud web services contract, a move that could s...

Almost all NOAA Research websites that rely on cloud services - including Amazon, Google and WordPress - are poised to disappear at midnight ET Saturday after a contract was targeted for "early termination." Labs may also feel the effects.

Story for @bloomberg.com (free link):

www.timeanddate.com provides excellent information about upcoming eclipses. This screenshot shows how much of the sun will be covered by the moons shadow at 7:05 AM at Buffalo, NY. Not much.

This image of the 00Z 3/28/25 HREF run valid at 11Z Saturday shows a high probability of low, mid, and high clouds over Buffalo, NY during the upcoming partial solar eclipse. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=cloudcover_mean&sector=ne

Partial solar eclipse information for the Buffalo, NY area tomorrow, Mar 29, 2025:

05:29 AM: Partial eclipse begins (below horizon)
07:02 AM: Sunrise
07:05 AM: Maximum eclipse
07:09 AM: Partial eclipse ends

Hardly noticeable, and probably cloudy anyway.

www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/u...

Planes are used - a lot. They are super important (I don’t have statistics, but they’ve greatly improved modeling over the years). Satellite (remote) soundings are also incredibly important. But the gold standard will always be soundings released from the ground and data-controlled locally.

This satellite image taken on 3/21/25 shows ice cover over the eastern end of Lake Erie, along with a thin strip of ice stretching from Long Point, Ontario to the larger area of ice.

Interesting "ice bridge" on Lake Erie between connecting Long Point, Ontario to PA and NY this afternoon as seen from the NOAA-21 polar orbiter this afternoon. I wouldn't cross it though.

Lake Erie ice, now down to 18% coverage is flowing nicely today.

apps.glerl.noaa.gov/coastwatch/w...

geosphere.ssec.wisc.edu#playing:true...;

Bassfield MS. (Summary of PTDS from GR3)

"TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC"

Map showing peak wind gusts today. Already a new record with more than 50 sites measuring 58 mph winds and greater.

Infrared satellite showing hot spots (black areas) across many locations in Oklahoma - especially north central.

For some quick historical context on today's winds (so far). We have already had more sites measure severe wind gusts (58 mph and greater) than any other single day in our 30 year history. Unfortunately those winds have fueled many wildfires (black spots on satellite). #okwx #okmesonet

A fire burned through our Lake Carl Blackwell Mesonet site around 3:41-3:45pm. One of our thermometers measured a 1-minute average temperature of 173 F at 3:42pm. The 2 meter anemometer is now reporting 0, which indicates that it likely was completely melted. #okwx #okmesonet

Lunar eclipse viewing looks pretty good for Western NY with mainly high thin clouds overnight.

Full eclipse begins: 06:26Z (2:26 am EDT)
Maximum Eclipse: 06:58Z (2:58 am EDT)
Full Eclipse ends: 07:31Z (3:31 am EDT)

www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?...

www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/luna...

I’m here for the daily tennis match.

YouTube video by WeatherWorld PSU Special Report: NOAA and NWS Cuts

An excellent report from Penn State’s Weather World on the impacts of the NWS and NOAA cuts last week. Well done @roblydick.bsky.social

youtu.be/eeRLVzbqy-k?...