john10hoeve.bsky.social

NHC: 180 mph and 896 mb!

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

From sunrise to sunset, Hurricane Melissa is still a Category 5 storm as it starts to move northward towards Jamaica.

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Why does McCaffrey have to be so good, and where did this SF defense come from?

Image of woman standing inside office with green plant behind

Prof Kirstine Dale spoke to Tech Monitor about the valuable opportunities AI and ML create across our operations, with the irreplaceable expertise of our data scientists for weather and climate intelligence. 

Read the full article ⤵️

www.techmonitor.ai/movers-and-s...

Grid scale batteries are changing our electricity system. Excellent new visual story on batteries in FT today shows just how far this technology has evolved.

Fasten your seatbelts, this is just the beginning.

ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

Congress is losing its grip on the power to spend Americans’ money

Wtf is the PSU coaching staff doing?

The Spread of Soy in South America Grasslands, savannas, and dry forests have become popular places to grow soy.

Cropland area nearly doubled in South America between 2000 and 2019 - the largest relative increase in the world. Soybean production replaced rainforests, grasslands & savannas. earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/14962... As China refuses U.S. soybeans, this puts more pressure on natural ecosystems.

Deterministic GFS seems to be trending ahead of Euro for Humberto and tropical depression 9. Interested to see what happens with this complex forecast

I’m not upset with passing in that spot. Could have gone either way at the end. Just heartbroken for the team. #PSU.

This game is unwatchable

Helene in Southern Appalachia One year later: An event analysis and how we move forward.

I’m proud to say that @noaa.gov and NCEI has released a 1 year retrospective on #Helene using ESRI Story Maps.

arcg.is/aqCD4

Here is a brief thread of how this came to be and how NOAA can still do good things (even while wearing pajamas).

Yes, would be good to connect.

Are you going to be at uifcw?

🌍 The MMM lab at @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is running experimental realtime forecasts with a global 3.75-km MPAS model.

Goal: Highlight the power of global km-scale models for weather prediction from local to planetary scales, incl. tropical cyclones.

👉 project.mmm.ucar.edu/real-time-fo...

Numerical models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes Artificial intelligence (AI)-based models are revolutionizing weather forecasting and have surpassed leading numerical weather prediction systems on various benchmark tasks. However, their ability to ...

Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF IFS) still outperform AI weather models in forecasting record-breaking hot and cold extremes and unseen wind extremes

Preprint
arxiv.org/abs/2508.15724

with Zhongwei Zhang @erichfischer.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social and Sebastian Engelke

How fast was Hurricane Erin's intensification rate vs. past Atlantic storms?

It wasn't record shattering - but still in the uppermost ranks of Atlantic hurricanes, especially over a 6-hour period:

While the NHC's track forecast errors for #Erin have been right around average, the intensity errors are just brutal. Erin was slow to develop when it was forecast to develop, and then explosively intensified when it was forecast to "only" rapidly intensify.

Houston AFD this morning belongs in the AFD hall of fame.

forecast.weather.gov/product.php?...

Confirmed!

The flood watch ahead of yesterday's deluge was DC's 16th so far this year.

‼️DC has had more flood watches than any other major city!!!

553p: This flash flood warning is not because of rain in DC but because of massive amount of water heading thru Rock Creek from upstream (coming from Montgomery County where rain is torrential). Stay away from Rock Creek Park. #cwgalert

545p Silver Spring getting hammered. Radar-estimated rainfall up to 4”. Stay off roads here. #cwgalert

Strongest Nor easters Getting Stronger Research from Professor Michael Mann and PhD students Annabelle Horton and Mackenzie Weaver shows that as the worst of these East Coast winter storms intensify, so does their destructive potential—a f...

"Strongest Nor’easters Getting Stronger" | Great piece on our new study by Michele Berger for @upenn.edu #OmniaMagazine: omnia.sas.upenn.edu/story/strong...

Forecasting issues: - Flash flood forecasting and warning is difficult for a number of reasons - Numerical models are generally poor at predicting warm-season convective precipitation (e.g., Novak et al. 2014) - Small time and length scales add to the problem - Very small differences between “event” and “non-event” days - Must not only predict rainfall, but hydrology as well (NWS uses hydrologic models for this purpose) - Since most flash floods occur at night, warnings are not as effective (people are sleeping) - Difficult to “rouse public concern” about rain, which is normally a benign weather event, as opposed to tornadoes and other severe hazards (Doswell et al. 1996)

Exactly. This is a slide from my mesoscale class on flash flooding (mainly just taken from Doswell et al. 1996)...this event hit every one of these bullets...

We need to make progress wrt forecast accuracy and communication. We should strive to be able to more accurately forecast your scenario (eg 75% chance of 10 in of rain in 3 hr, 6-12 hrs from now)

A "roll cloud" spotted off the coast of Portugal looked like something out of a movie.

Here’s the science behind it: https://trib.al/jLWJ0M3