's Avatar

@skubly.bsky.social

18 Followers  |  17 Following  |  26 Posts  |  Joined: 14.02.2024  |  2.2213

Latest posts by skubly.bsky.social on Bluesky

For the history buffs out there. When facing cost overruns the Monorail proposed 50 year bonds.

25.01.2026 19:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

We need a constitutional amendment that prohibits the president from pardoning crimes committed during their administration. Post haste

24.01.2026 21:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Two things can be true. It can be bad fiscal policy to do 75 year debt and it can be bad public policy to do nothing on climate change.

22.01.2026 19:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

So thatโ€™s 17โ€™. Each train is 8โ€™8โ€ wide. What do you want the rest for?

22.01.2026 00:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This is akin to the 50-yr mortgage. Avoids the underlying structural problems and makes things more expensive. Wealth transfer from sales tax payers to bankers.

21.01.2026 17:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Sound Transit Seeks Hail Mary Financial Tool to Complete ST3 Buildout ยป The Urbanist # With creative tools needed to get the entire Sound Transit 3 network across the finish line as planned, Sound Transit is turning to the idea of 75-year bonds. If the Washington State Legislature OKs...

akin to proposing 50-yr mortgages to improve housing affordability without addressing zoning / permitting. Obscures underlying issues driving ST3 costs up. It will increase total costs and make future expansion less affordable. @sound-transit.bsky.social

www.theurbanist.org/2026/01/21/s...

21.01.2026 17:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

What metric would you propose for setting station capacity and how would you define it?

18.01.2026 23:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Reduce the cost to build one project and use the money on another is the argument. ST has chosen a LOS C at the PM Peak to set platform size. Same logic that is applied to highways and strip mall parking lots. Overbuilding isnโ€™t free. Other projects will be cut to pay for it.

18.01.2026 21:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Thank you!

18.01.2026 20:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

My argument is that overbuilding is an opportunity cost. Itโ€™s not about spending less. An over built over budget project in one area is non-built project in another. Planning for free flowing platforms during a peak period means that we have less transit everywhere.

18.01.2026 19:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The issue-as I see it- is less the concept of LOS and more how it is defined and the decision to optimize for a level of service C under weekday peak period conditions. That is bloat. Life is tradeoffs. I would rather have more smaller platforms than fewer giant platforms.

18.01.2026 19:33 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

And further, saving money on construction doesnโ€™t mean lower taxes. It means more transit. Which, in my opinion, is the goal.

13.01.2026 22:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

An alternate take. ST is funded by sales tax (regressive) and overruns benefit the contracting community.

13.01.2026 19:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

If you look at the length of car, segmentation, and door placement - the incremental gap created by the 10k foot curve is 0.22โ€ at the max.

So I guess the question is, what is their current design criteria and what tolerances will they allow?

07.01.2026 21:43 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Have you been talking to my family?

18.12.2025 22:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

There is undoubtedly political risk. The risk you fear is not unreasonable. A risk I think a lot about is that this becomes the CHS Rail of local transit and used nationally as an example for anti transit folks.

18.12.2025 20:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The thing about risk. It is everywhere. The key is to understand the risk, the likelihood it materializes, the impact if it does, and how to mitigate the risk. We have seen some of the 1st. But not much else.

18.12.2025 20:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I would argue that platform connections across all lines is a vastly superior rider experience than limited transfer points from stations that will require multi-minute walks between platforms.

And the โ€œresilienceโ€ is much more limited than advertised.

18.12.2025 19:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I donโ€™t think itโ€™s a cut. I think it is a defer

There are lots of ways that Madrid is able to pull this off. And it isnโ€™t labor cost.

I think one can do a deep dive into ST design and engineering standards / decisions and see that we could get more and better transit today.

18.12.2025 19:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Another ironic twist. A big reason costs are so high is we are building super deep stations (bad rider experience) and very few of them.

All so we donโ€™t inconvenience drivers in the short term.

To me that is a scarcity mindset.

18.12.2025 19:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I would rather spend my time asking HOW everywhere else in the world can build transit for 1/2 to 1/3 the cost.

Do that.

And get way more transit.

18.12.2025 19:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@typewriteralley.bsky.social an engage board member might ask, how many of the DSTT resilience projects are baked into the state of good repair budget. My suspicion is at least some. So that may be a bit of a double count in the report from last week

18.12.2025 18:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The lack of rigor in the analysis of DSTT resilience and the 2nd tunnel is pretty stunning. The resilience report is almost entirely qualitative and to the extent there are number, they are descriptive statistics of the past not a projection into the future

18.12.2025 18:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I think your โ€œwhyโ€ is a part of my โ€œhowโ€. The point of โ€œhowโ€ is to force the agency to offer solutions to the shortfall that going beyond cutting critical scope

18.12.2025 17:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

If you want to get really provocative. Ask why there is no transit in the tunnel. Could run express in from Alaska Junction to Aurora and Harrison tomorrow

18.12.2025 16:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Op-Ed: Defer Seattleโ€™s Second Downtown Rail Tunnel to Save ST3 ยป The Urbanist # Tabling a second light rail tunnel through Downtown Seattle and redesigning Ballard Link to use the existing tunnel could save $4.5 billion, and Sound Transit has been too quick to dismiss the idea,...

Former SDOT Director Scott Kubly weighs in on the issue of the second downtown light rail tunnel, which is set to be front-and-center at today's Sound Transit board meeting.
www.theurbanist.org/2025/12/18/o...

18.12.2025 15:16 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 18    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

~15% of the overall shortfall and ~25% of the cap ex shortfall

Not the 10% somers mentioned.

Also. Based on a number from a staff that is clearly sandbagging an approach they donโ€™t want to pursue

11.12.2025 20:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@skubly is following 16 prominent accounts