Steve Carpenter

UK's first rice crop ripe for picking after hot summer Paddy fields are thriving in a quiet part of east England and might help feed us in the future.

Dismissed as a joke, UK's first rice crop ripe for picking after hot summer
www.bbc.com/news/article...

"The trial is trying to answer big questions about how we can produce enough food and protect farmer's livelihoods in a world being altered by climate change."

per capita ev benefits by USA county - This figures contains estimates of the current per capita benefits of EVs in counties across the U.S. We use the statewide total number of EVs from the U.S. Department of Energy for 2023. We include plug-in Hybrid EVs in this calculation. We allocate EVs across all counties according to the share of EV charging ports within the state located in that county. The locations of EV charging ports are from the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation and are current as of March 2025. We then calculate the share of all personal vehicles in the county that are EVs using the 2019-2023 American Community Survey. We then multiply this share by the potential benefits of 100% EVs according to the analysis in Table 9.

The Traffic Noise Externality: Costs, Incidence and Policy Implications
Moretti+
eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/noi...

"aggregate economic cost of traffic noise at $110 billion" in USA

a "shift to electric vehicles...could yield noise reduction benefits of $77.3 billion"

Tropical cyclone. Stock photo.

The rate of expansion of tropical cyclones increases with the relative sea surface temperature (SST), which is the difference between local SST and the tropical mean temperature. These changes in relative SST will complicate storm forecasting. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Why Alaska’s salmon streams are suddenly bleeding orange Warming Arctic permafrost is unlocking toxic metals, turning Alaska’s once-clear rivers into orange, acid-laced streams. The shift, eerily similar to mine pollution but entirely natural, threatens fis...

Thawing permafrost is going to be a problem in more ways than one.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/202...

Overhead view of a forest. Stock photo.

Plants cool the land through evapotranspiration, but green foliage can absorb more heat than lighter surfaces, causing warming. A study finds that in the northern hemisphere, cooling outweighs warming until the end of the growing season. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Revisiting Patterns and Controls of Productivity in a Mesic Grassland 30 Years Later: Do We Know Now What We Knew Then? - Ecosystems Given the rapid pace of global change, determining if our past understanding of the controls of ecosystem structure and function remains robust today is essential for managing and conserving ecosystems. Here, we revisit a foundational study that evaluated patterns and controls of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) across topographic gradients and in response to fire frequency treatments from 1975 to 1993 in tallgrass prairie (Konza Prairie). We replicated this 30-year-old study for a contemporary period (2005–2023) and found that overall patterns of ANPP across fire treatments and topographic gradients remained consistent. However, the magnitude of ANPP responses to fire increased substantially (> twofold) in lowlands, resulting in greater landscape-scale divergence in ANPP. Differences in temporal variability among topographic positions and fire regimes also increased (~ fourfold). Annual precipitation remained a primary determinant of ANPP, but atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has emerged as a new driver in contemporary times. Furthermore, air temperature and deep soil moisture have now become significant controls of ANPP in unburned grassland. We conclude that despite myriad global changes, the primary controls of ANPP have not changed dramatically over three decades, but additional drivers have emerged (notably VPD), and the magnitude of responses to fire have been altered. Increased spatial variation in ANPP as well as interannual variability in ANPP differing more strongly among sites will be particularly challenging for managing this rare grassland. As temperatures and VPD continue to increase, additional revision to our understanding of the functioning of this and other ecosystems will likely be necessary.

Altered controls of ANPP between two LT studies at Konza Prairie (1975-1993 & 2005-2023): doubled response to fire, greater impact of rising VPD. Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social

Effect of Restoration on Physical and Chemical Peat Properties in Previously Drained Boreal Peatlands - Ecosystems There is a societal demand to restore drained boreal peatlands for purposes of improving water quality and biodiversity and lowering emissions of greenhouse gases. Restoration measures are costly and neither the effects of drainage nor restoration on biogeochemical processes in the peat, and in downstream environments are well understood. This study assesses how 60–100 years of drainage followed by 6–9 years of restored conditions have changed the physical and chemical peat properties in restored boreal peatlands. Eight pairs of restored and natural peatlands were sampled down to 50 cm (n = 3 for each site). Each of the 50 cm peat cores was sliced into 25 two-centimetre discs, generating high-resolution records of the dry bulk density (BD), organic matter content (OM), C- and N- content, δ13C, and δ15N. Peat from the restored sites showed significantly higher BD and lower C:N ratio and OM content than the reference sites. Furthermore, peat from restored peatlands was systematically depleted in δ13C, and the OM was enriched in C and N. Long-term drainage could cause increased peat decomposition, leaving altered physical and chemical peat properties. For example, the C content in OM increases as the residual peat is enriched in aromatic and aliphatic moieties following decomposition. For the same reason, degraded peat can be δ13C depleted. Interestingly, differences between the restored and pristine sites were mainly found at 20–50 cm depth. Given the low peat formation rates in nutrient-poor peatlands, the superficial 20 cm peat was potentially recovering from drainage even before restoration.

Decadal recovery of previously-drained peatlands - implication for C storage? Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social

Identifying Bottlenecks to Energy Circulation in the Bay of Biscay Pelagic Food Web: Key Species Under the Spotlight - Ecosystems Understanding the functioning and resilience of marine ecosystems requires identifying the main energy flow pathways. Key trophic groups occupy strategic positions in the trophic interactions network, acting as hubs that control the energy distribution across the ecosystem. This study examines the Bay of Biscay’s pelagic food web using stable isotope analysis with stomach content data, creating a network of 38 trophic groups and 125 interactions. Both annual-weighted and seasonal (spring and late summer) networks were constructed. The analysis of unweighted and weighted annual networks found that low-trophic level epipelagic fish (European anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus; sardine, Sardina pilchardus; and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) is a key trophic group displaying higher scores in many centrality indices. These forage fish play a central role in facilitating energy transfer across trophic levels, thus representing a critical link between the planktonic food web and higher trophic level predators and fisheries. Overall, annual networks showed that phytoplankton-dominated grazing chains support a higher diversity of predators compared to chains originating from particulate organic matter (POM). The analysis of weighted networks accounting for seasonal variations in trophic interactions revealed that, during late summer, predators occupy more vulnerable positions than in spring. Changes in feeding preferences cause blue whiting to shift from mostly depending on grazing chains during spring to occupying a position along POM-dominated chains in late summer. These findings highlight the need for fisheries management strategies to prioritize the conservation of key trophic groups supplying energy to predators while considering seasonal shifts in the structure of the energy flow network.

Bottlenecks to organic energy flow through pelagic foodweb - Bay of Biscay. Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social

Atmosphere, Vegetation, and Soil Water Coupling Determined by Stomatal Regulation of Transpiration - Ecosystems Stomatal regulation plays a critical role in controlling tree water loss and mediating atmosphere–vegetation–soil water coupling, yet the implications of species-specific differences in stomatal regulation on this coupling remain poorly understood. Drimys species possess primitive leaf anatomy with limited stomatal closure capacity, while Nothofagus exhibits more effective stomatal control. We compared multi-year sap flux data from these two co-occurring Southern Chilean species to evaluate how stomatal traits influence water-coupling dynamics across timescales. Using boosted regression tree modeling and wavelet coherence analysis, we found that while both species showed similar functional responses to environmental drivers, the relative importance of these drivers differed between them. Both Drimys and Nothofagus responded to VPD, but Drimys sap flux was more strongly influenced by soil moisture, particularly during early season wet periods and late-season drought. In contrast, Nothofagus showed greater dependence on light and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), reflecting tighter stomatal regulation. Wavelet coherence analyses further confirmed stronger soil moisture control of sap flux in Drimys, especially at weekly to sub-seasonal timescales, and provided evidence that stomatal regulation can either buffer or amplify late-season soil moisture deficits. These findings suggest Drimys follows a high water use, low-conservation strategy closely tied to soil moisture, whereas Nothofagus demonstrates more conservative water use governed by atmospheric conditions. The strong soil moisture dependence of Drimys may increase its vulnerability to future warming and drying trends, with implications for forest composition and hydrological modeling in a changing climate.

Local to global: how stomates alter the water cycle. Rocha, Armesto et al. in Ecosystems doi.org/10.1007/s100... @monicagturner.bsky.social

Please, please, please-submit to good journals (society + reputed publishers), respect peer review, and do your reviews with integrity. So important. Thanks to all of you who do. @steve-carpenter.bsky.social @esajournals.bsky.social #Ecosystems

Environmental challenges, like extreme weather events & critical changes in Earth systems, remain a priority, underlining the importance of risk mitigation in an interconnected world.🌐⚠️
—WEF Global Risks Report 2025

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/global-risks-report-2025-bleak-predictions/

It's interesting that anyone would be surprised by this. They are large language models, not large fact models. They are very good at language; it's unsurprising that they aren't terribly good at facts.

screen cap of NY Times article pushing Geoengineering

In #ScienceUnderSiege (www.barnesandnoble.com/w/science-un...), @peterhotezmdphd.bsky.social and I criticize the NY Times for pushing unhelpful antiscience (like the "Lab Leak Theory" for COVID-19) or fossil fuel-friendly framing (e.g. in this case, "geoengineering" as a climate solution):

Research posts on Bluesky are more original — and get better engagement Bluesky posts about science garner more likes and reposts than similar ones on X.

Posts about scientific research on Bluesky receive substantially more attention than similar posts on Twitter. More importantly, you're far less likely to get sexist or racist replies.

How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous » Yale Climate Connections Stronger wind speeds, more rain, and worsened storm surge add up to more potential destruction.

Climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous than they were 20 years ago, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall. Here's how:

yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-...

Medicare Will Require Prior Approval for Certain Procedures

What a cursed sentence (gift link)

“The A.I. companies selected to oversee the program would have a strong financial incentive to deny claims. Medicare plans to pay them a share of the savings generated from rejections.”

Climate change increases global farmland area and agricultural emissions, study finds Our mission is to help the world reach “Drawdown" as quickly, safely, and equitably as possible.

A new study published today in @nature.com, co-authored by researchers at the University of Minnesota, Project Drawdown, and other institutions, reveals a troubling feedback loop 🔁:

drawdown.org/news/climate...

We talk a lot about the level of climate warming, have we passed a given threshold, and less about the rate. The rate is the core problem: we are changing climate faster than society or the environment can adapt. If it took 10,000 years to warm by 2 C, this would be a different conversation.

Mapping the world's inland surface waters: an upgrade to the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD v2) Abstract. In recognition of the importance of inland waters, numerous datasets mapping their extents, types, or changes have been created using sources ranging from historical wetland maps to real-tim...

This new map provides a global view of the distribution of a multitude of aquatic ecosystems, including various wetlands. It's a pretty big step forward, and I look forward to seeing how it will be used e.g. to study wetland greenhouse gases.

essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

YouTube video by ASLO ASLO 2025 Plenary: The Ruth Patrick Award is Presented to Peter Leavitt

If you are interested in lakes and the role of nitrogen pollution in degrading them, here's a summary talk of 30+ years of our research presented at #aslo this spring. www.youtube.com/watch?v=liIa...

🎉 Congrats to Professor Emily Boyd, appointed as the new Director of the Beijer Institute! She joins from LUCSUS, where she’s served as Director for the past seven years.

We also wish to say a heartfelt thank you to Carl Folke, retiring in September, for his inspiring leadership over the years. 🌍💚

This is not the actual cover of Nature, just shown here for illustrative purposes. We did submit this figure for consideration for their cover. Print run in two weeks, we'll know by then if it gets used.

Out today in Nature, our paper on the drivers of the record 2023 summer heating of the North Atlantic. Temperatures warmed to record levels in just a few months. The impacts on climate & ecosystems were severe. A thread on how this work came about and what we found.👇👇🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

New paper! led by Josh Dean “Old carbon routed from land to the atmosphere by global river systems”
doi.org/10.1038/s415...

#radiocarbon in #rivers reveals the age of CO2 they release to the atmosphere.

An active leak of old carbon from land.
🧪⚒️
@joshfdean.bsky.social @oxuniearthsci.bsky.social

Office clean out days - amid the piles of paper, you can find some cool stuff @steve-carpenter.bsky.social

Thank you @steve-carpenter.bsky.social for an inspiring plenary on resilience to start our Great Lakes Conference! @iaglr.bsky.social

Michigan issues hundreds of new warnings about pollution in fish After reviewing the latest research, health officials realized a common pollutant is more toxic than they knew.

Michigan is using the latest science to update PFAS fish advisories, crucial for Great Lakes communities.
@waynestateclas.bsky.social PhD student Brittanie Dabney spoke to @detroitnews.bsky.social on the risks. At @iaglr.bsky.social ? Don’t miss PFAS sessions today to learn the latest on PFAS!

International students look to the U.K. instead of the U.S. amid Trump's visa plans Planned U.S. visa restrictions are causing students around the world to consider going to the United Kingdom instead.

Planned U.S. visa restrictions are causing students around the world to consider going to the United Kingdom instead.

At last an open society for Social-Ecological systems science, 25 years after the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and more than 50 years after resilience and adaptive management concepts!

#NativePlants provide the foundation for environments to support #pollinators, butterflies, birds, and other life above and below ground.

However, the supply of #NativeSeeds to restore and conserve ecosystems often falls short of demand.

Learn more: ow.ly/hyPJ50VY4n2

"All water discharged by wells is balanced by a loss of water somewhere." - Hydrogeologist C.V. Theis writing in 1940, nearly a century ago. From "The Source of Water Derived From Wells." water.usgs.gov/ogw/pubs/The...