Dr. ACCutts

So happy for my friend @stephenpjenkin1.bsky.social we met when I was Asst professor at Syracuse and he was visiting (1995)We wrote some wonderful studies together and though I left the academy long ago he has continued to do great academic work. 👏🎉

In my BFFs weekly dinner group we have a saying “choo choo” which means you just keeping going with your story. We may have 6 cross conversations going at once but if you love us you will valiantly continue on with your tale and we will be right there with you. Speak on my friend!

Love this short piece on impact of immigration on labor force. I think the effects will be even bigger than you suggested in your podcast but regardless it’s an important drag.

My worry, in addition to the bad/dangerous information, is that proven vaccines and meds won’t be available or that flu and Covid vaccines will not be appropriately updated so will be less effective for those that want or need them.

Contact Prof. Stephen Jenkins at LSE. If the data are publicly available he would know where to find it.

Apparently the 20 yr auction was weak.

The soft data, word(s) on the street, the bond markets, CDS prices, all are flashing red. The hard data still show activity through March and maybe April. Everything is not fine. End/🧵 #EconSky

Consumers are facing income effects of higher prices, wealth effects of large stock market decline (they will react more to the decline than the recovery), and with companies’ cost cutting underway, saving in anticipation of layoffs. 7/🧵 #EconSky

Many imports are intermediate goods. So many domestic manufacturers are affected directly by tariffs. US made goods lacking competition and with manufacturers’ limited ability to increase production will raise prices too (where else you gonna go?) 6/🧵 #EconSky

With the new port fees on Chinese made ships (imagine a fee on Airbus plane landings!) the 🛳️ that do come here are now only making one 🛑 rather than several along the coast creating both bottle necks and idle ports. The $/ container of these fees is not very high but incentives matter. 5/🧵 #EconSky

If you want to take advantage of the 90 day tariff pause or the reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods getting space on a container ship is nearly impossible as so many routes were blanked by shippers. These have been rerouted to other parts of the world. 4/🧵 #EconSky

I was in Charleston, SC early last week and saw only ONE container 🚢 and many empty crane berths. TEU container shipments from China to the US are down 59% (reported by Vizion). Global TEU containers are down 31% 3/🧵#EconSky

News headlines act as though the reduction in China’s tariffs was all the way to ZERO and that the pause in retaliatory tariffs means all tariffs are paused. It is far from reality. Highest level of effective tariffs since 1938! 2/🧵 #EconSky

I don’t think my friends in the economic forecasting profession have fully grasped the scale of how bad the tariff impacts will be.
1/🧵

Transaction fees may be close to zero but currency fluctuations can be instantaneous and massive in Crypto. Stable coins are little more than Ponzi schemes and I will die on that hill.

Thank you @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

If you’ve ever used GoodRX or Cost Plus Drugs for your RX you know that your PBM/insurance Co is making some serious coin off your wallet. This is a huge story. Go Ohio!

I’ve been surprised by this but also a little relieved. They have some sense that this ain’t normal.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised by their editorial board’s positions the last few weeks.

But were you confronted with the ultimate parent test? Do you try to catch the vomit in your hands or just let them spew on the floor? Bonus points if they get every piece of bedding too.

Just 1 data point: when my Oma died just shy of her 99th birthday in 2021, her monthly $350 SocSec $ came into her account - I don’t remember date but it was within a day of her passing. And then it was automatically reversed by the SSA because the payment was effective for dates after her death.

So I get regular updates from #FedEx about when my package is going to arrive. It’s always a 4 hour window. It’s also never on the hour or half hour. Today’s range is 10:10 am to 2:10 pm. It perplexes me but also gives a moment’s distraction from doom scrolling.

Good word for it.

Great advice, to start saving for rainy days. But if you depend on Social Security for your monthly expenses where will those savings come from? It’s not like they have 5 years to plan for this. When my grandmother died at age 99 in 2021 her monthly Social Security payment was about $350.

Drove by a very lively and serious protest in front of the White House today despite the cold wind. #SlavaUkraini

Happy to be back at the National Assoc for Business Economics Policy Conference in DC. Kicking off is the Volker lifetime achievement award talk by Anne Case and Angus Deaton #NABE #incomeinequality #wellbeing

I want to be as efficient and productive as Mr Soros now, in my 50s. He’s what, 105 years old now? And look at all the chaos and disruption he’s able to execute at his age! 🤣

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You know the saying, if you can’t say something nice…boo! Not even real snow. Boo! (Seriously, thanks for the update guys!💕)

There are so many opportunities for errors in a book/dissertation. Once you’ve hit send on that baby just admire the cover and leave it at that. Well done! Congratulations! So when is your next book gonna be out…?🤣