Mauricio Salgado-Moreno

NEW from me:

Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.

That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀

...I agree with JBM that UK is making itself relatively less attractive to high-skill migrants through combination of hostile rhetoric, excessive fees & stupid/unnecessary rules that will disproportionately deter those with options elsewhere. But this just gets current system wrong.

This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.

But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..

www.ft.com/content/d70c...

Top incomes in the UK are no longer among the highest in the rich world Rank among developed countries for average post-tax income of top 10%

On the one hand: Interesting just how long post-imperial Britain could cling on to its relative economic position. On the other hand: Yikes.

www.ft.com/content/d70c...

Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.

This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.

ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

Fed cuts rates by a quarter point.

For the first time in forever, there's a dissent on either side. Miran wants more (sigh, it's Miran). Schmid surprises and says he wanted no change.

Quantitative tightening ended.

Racist incidents against UK nurses surge by 55% Royal College of Nursing calls on government to stop using anti-migrant rhetoric, which it says emboldens racist behaviour

This is what tolerance of anti-migrant political rhetoric leads to. A surge in racial abuse against nurses and care workers. www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

Ed Luce watching democracy die in the United States of America

Bill Nelson says it's time for the Fed to restart open market operations

it's important to call things what they are

"mass deportations of legal residents for cultural homogeneity" is an ethnic cleansing policy

FT graph showing massive UK public support for the opinion that it was wrong to vote to leave the EU.

Ah! Good morning, reality. And welcome. We’ve been expecting you…

The authors of the book write: “Even Sir Tony Blair, a Labour prime minister, argued that if you look at the levels of direct taxation for people, they’re really high, and in historical terms, they’d be considered extremely high, and people feel they’re getting taxed highly

Just ignorant, ahistorical rubbish from Blair.

The average burden of direct taxes (income tax and employee NICs) has barely shifted in two decades. Was 21% of gross incomes in 2004, was 21% last year.

archive.ph/MVNMw

This is, in fact, apropos of Reform and *Conservative* proposals to do exactly that for hundreds of thousands of legal migrants with permanent status.

Infusing economically motivated structure into machine learning methods Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1144 by M Buckmann (BoE) & G Potjagailo (BoE) discusses how economic theory can be integrated into machine learning methods to address “black box” concerns and still harness their predictive power in forecasting & policy analysis.
🔗 www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

Agree with Dom. And.. There's anyway room for the MPC to set lower policy rates to compensate for QT. The proof of whether policy has been too tight or not is in the inflation outcomes relative to target. On that metric it's much easier to argue that policy has been too loose, not too tight.

Immigration is down, should the government be happy? - UK in a changing Europe Jonathan Portes analyses the latest ONS immigration statistics. He argues that net migration has dropped significantly, but that this will expose the...

The unravelling of Reform's xenophobic and half-baked proposals on ILR would be ideal time for Govt to say its own proposals, which I described as "not just unfair and vindictive, but economically irrational" will *not* apply retrospectively to migrants already here.

ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration_...

A graph showing that in a survey of British people, immigration is rated as the most important for the country, but among the lowest for importance to them personally.

Is hostility to immigration something that people develop spontaneously based on their own experiences, or is it deliberately cultivated by politicians and the press?

The authors of this FT don’t say so, but it’s hard not to see this figure as evidence for the latter. www.ft.com/content/43da...

And so my advice to the government is:

DO NOT EXTEND ILR WAITING TIME TO TEN YEARS.

DEFINITELY DO NOT CHANGE THE RULES ON PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY HERE, YOU TOTAL LUNATICS

I think that is suitably clear

25/n

BoE’s Benjamin on market resilience, non-bank liquidity and the modern financial system - Central Banking The UK central bank’s executive director for financial stability strategy and risk speaks about leverage in the gilt repo market, minimum haircuts and central

Thomas and I spoke to the BoE's Nat Benjamin about how to get liquidity to non-banks in a crisis, and how to stop the extra risky bits of the gilt repo market (like hedge funds) blowing up everything else. A quick summary...

www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

The deeper problem - perhaps the fundamental problem in this area - is that we have organized housing so that provision of a basic service is completely intertwined with a speculative asset market. The long run goal should be to disentangle them.

A game-theoretic foundation for the fiscal theory of the price level Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.

Staff Working Paper 1137 by Tim Willems (BoE) and Thomas Norman (Oxford) examines the importance of fiscal-monetary interactions for inflation outcomes via a game-theoretic approach. 🔗 Read the paper here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-pape...

A graph of GDP per capita growth in the G7

Here's each G7 country's cumulative increase in real GDP per capita, since just before the pandemic:

🇺🇸 +9.9%
🇮🇹 +7.3% (thru Q1)
🇯🇵 +3.1% (thru Q1)
🇫🇷 +2.4% (thru Q1)
🇬🇧 -0.1% (thru Q1)
🇨🇦 -1.1% (thru Q1)
🇩🇪 -1.9% (thru Q1)

This is the second largest 2m revision on record. In general they get larger at cyclical turning points. We take more signal that we are at a cyclical turning point than that there is some data collection conspiracy

There's a science reason! A bunch, actually. Air conditioners are heat pumps, they move heat around rather than needing to create something from scratch, which is more efficient.

A feature not a bug − speech by Megan Greene Speech given at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research

I gave a speech today at @NIESRorg looking at how the BoE, ECB and Fed manage their balance sheets, whether the differences bw them create trading opportunities for banks to book profits and whether I need to worry about this as an MPC member.👇
b-o-e.uk/44dbxCb

a timeline graph of Trump's 2nd-Term tariffs

The court ruling against many of Trump's tariffs today would lower US overall tariff rates by roughly 10%, only leaving the tariffs on cars, steel, & aluminum

If it holds (a very big if) tariffs would drop to the lowest rate since March & importers would get retroactive relief

Trump's Retreat Still Leaves Tariffs at 90-Year Highs China Tariffs Are Now Below "Embargo" Levels, but Overall Tariffs are at the Highest Rate Since the Great Depression

NEW from me:

Trump's 90-day pause on the China trade war still leaves tariffs at the highest level since the Great Depression—and that's before upcoming sector-specific tariffs or possible un-pausing

Trump may be easing his trade war, but he's far from ending it🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/trumps-ret...

Finally, while this particular channel might imply MP fueled inflation (still not convinced about this), wouldn’t we still expect that an activist easing policy to boost demand and inflation even more? Or is the implicit assumption that rental prices would fall leading to deflationary effects? 🤔

Also, migration as driver of higher rental inflation is consistent with Canada similar profile. (See www.gov.uk/government/p...)

Interesting blog, but I wouldn’t attribute too much of the rental inflation to MP (haven’t read the paper but seems that MP shocks are not identified,no?). Especially as Brexit and migration over the past years are probably more relevant structural drivers of the increase in rental demand, no?