So Golden was down 5 to LePage in one poll in a Trump+9 district (and LePage has higher negatives)? What is that supposed to show? Seems totally consistent with the close race we would expect.

Unfortunately this won’t settle the debate. No one who disagrees with you about moderation would accept this specification of the questions under debate.

No, the point is that 1.4 is the best estimate of the effect (from this data). There is no reason to have zero for your prior here.

Well, those are runs *above average.* Judge is producing runs at a rate about 50% higher then Cabrera (still amazing).

It should be possible to determine empirically if replacement level rose after 2010. For example, did the % of PA taken by players with <0.4 WAR/650 decline? If not, then standards likely didn’t rise.

Well, that’s probably what these authors thought. And it’s actually pretty hard (small sample size, lots of controls needed).

Looks like this includes playoff games, which are played only in Dec/Jan. That doesn’t work, because in those games the home team is usually the better team (in addition to enjoying HFA). That would likely explain most or all of the apparent cold weather advantage.

Also, Stanton/Judge emerged from vastly larger (and bigger/stronger) talent pool than Ruth.

What is the advantage of shooting left-handed in hockey?

Great analysis. One benefit of running is not captured: putting runners in motion when the batter swings, which reduces GDP and adds bases gained, but often a CS if no contact is made. Likely explains some of the apparently sub-optimal value of current practice.

Clarifying: runner was in motion *when batter swings*. Those will be slower runners on average, with lower success rate.

Maybe. But some CS are not real SBAs because the runner was in motion. You need to either exclude those, or capture the benefits of runners in motion when batter makes contact. Might explain the apparent excess in SBAs.