Lukas Hermwille

I have been sitting in Cologne at a conference on industrial policy we're a lot of economists warned against corporate capture and rent seeking. But recent evidence suggests that we can have rent seeking even without industrial policy.

bsky.app/profile/der-...

I am just wondering how much of the cult is personal and how much is ideological? And then I am probably too scared to admit that it probably doesn't matter once they have enough raw power..

In meinem Kopf entsteht gerade das Bild wie eine große Zahl von Entscheidungen in Schlange ansteht, und darauf wartet, dass der Behördenschalter öffnet... Ich glaube, dieses Bild ist Recht passend für den Zustand des Landes.

Also worked for Putin. Would be a shame to lose such valuable compromat...

Indeed. in GER it is quite clear that not all primary steelmaking capacity will prevail. At the same time massive reinvestments are necessary. We need a mechanism to coordinate this and perhaps compensate between winners and losers. Is we leave it to the invisible hand, everyone loses.

Let them calculate how much 1 million seconds are Vs. 1 billion seconds.

Guten Morgen deutsche Medien:

Diese Studie zeigt:
a) dass die AfD unverhältnismäßige mediale Aufmerksamkeit erhält (=mehr als ihre elektorale Größe suggerieren könnte).
b) dass diese Aufmerksamkeit mit der strategischen Störung des politischen Prozesses durch die AfD an sich zusammenhängt.

I think they need ICE to secure "safe" mid-term elections. Are you ready for ICE squads at every polling station making sure everyone votes right?

Not sure they have that distinction clearly in their heads... Interestingly, the phase-out of free allocation was what they mentioned first. But that does not necessarily mean it was the more relevant "trigger". In any case, I do not think that there was one "trigger" anyway. Its always multicausal.

Absolutely. The same people were talking about the "effective carbon price" they are facing. They were clearly not considering opportunity costs...

It may depend on the design, though. I recently interviewed GER steelmakers who clearly said that the outlook of zero free allocation in 2034 and zero new allowances in 39 was the main prompt to investigate alternative steel tech...

...Panagiotis Fragkos, Ioannis Charalampidis, Eeva Kesküla and Annela Anger-Kraavi

Thanks to fantastic co-authors @mcbrisbois.bsky.social Ralitsa Hiteva, @mahiryazar.bsky.social, Lola Nacke, @jdjewell.bsky.social, @sovacool.bsky.social, @robertocantoni.bsky.social, @paoyuoei.bsky.social, Paula Walk, @havardhaarstad.bsky.social, Max Schulze-Steinen, Zoi Vrontisi,...

And 4️⃣ we need to start acknowledging that social and economic stress caused by the energy transition requires emotional labour from, and support for, those affected.

3️⃣ We need to promote inclusivity and representation of local community actors identified as particularly exposed to compounding injustices based on a robust empirical foundation.

2️⃣ We need to establish a robust monitoring system to systematically map existing and prospective injustices and inequalities.

1️⃣ We need to acknowledge and better address these compounding injustices by focusing more on energy transition processes that also meaningfully address procedural and recognition injustices.

And particularly problematic are instances in which new transformation injustices overlap and intersect with old legacy injustices. This is what we call COMPOUNDING INJUSTICES
From this insight we draw four main policy recommendations:

When we talk about Just Transition we all too often focus on newly emerging injustices that originate from the transformation. However, in CINTRAN we found that more often than not old injustices originating from fossil fuel legacies of those regions are jeopardizing a genuinely just transition.

Compounding injustices can impede a just energy transition Nature Energy - Coal and carbon-intensive regions have lagged behind in socioeconomic development, long before any transition-related structural changes were foreseeable. Acknowledging and tackling...

We have a new comment out in @natureportfolio.nature.com Nature Energy in which we synthesise key findings of our 4-year CINTRAN project on structural change in coal and carbon-intensive regions across Europe.
A free read-only version is available here: rdcu.be/epxGW
#JustTransition #energysky

I think this study by @jonasalgers.bsky.social and @chrisbataille.bsky.social is about a week old: lucris.lub.lu.se/ws/portalfil...

@11freunde.de do you do books?

Puh. An neuen Politiken kann es kaum liegen. Das Versprechen der Bundesregierung auf niedrige Strompreise würde mich sehr überraschen. Ich tippe auf geopolitische Unsicherheit, die die Deutschen zum Sparen treibt.

Gibt es eigentlich ein TRL für pipe dream?

Es gibt ein schönes Paper von Yazar und Haarstadt, dass sich das anschaut, auch mit Bezug zu Deutschland und Eike: scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=d...

"light" Version eines Angriffs: Scholz hat nach der Russischen Invasion ziemlich aggressiv/dünnheutig gegen Ökonomen geholzt, die am Ende Recht behalten haben: www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/komm...

Ich nehme das aber nicht nur bei Personalia wahr. Ich hatte vor ein paar Wochen jede Menge Anfragen, den geleakten Clean Industrial Deal Entwurf zu kommentieren. 1,5 Wochen später wurde er offiziell vorgestellt, aber sowohl Anfragen als auch Berichterstattung waren viel geringer.

A lot of people are trying to make sense of Trump's tariffs. The only pattern I see is chaos. And it is not a bug but a feature: Chaos is a policy objective. Trump thrives on chaos.

We have been selling computer hardware and software separately forever. Can't EU Automakers do the same? Just reduce prices (and tariffs) of car hardware and charge costumers extra for the software to rub the car. Separate product, separate tariffs...