Robert Drach

Hickey “From the Depths” 7 inch

I got mail

Of course, but term limits increase that incentive. I’ve seen it first hand living in Tallahassee. Maybe fewer people die in office in the FL leg, but it certainly doesn’t serve the people better. I do support term limits on positions of particular power (exec, speaker, chairs) to limit corruption.

Best way to convince constituents you’re worth electing is to serve them well while in office, making reelection the best incentive to serve your constituents.
Can’t eliminate those seeking a corrupt exit, but term limits magnify corrupt behavior by reducing the incentive to serve constituents.

As I learned living in FL, term limits basically leave reps less interested in serving constituents and more interested in their exit plans, so they either go full “politician” gunning for higher office or serve special interests to secure future employment. FL gov is mostly run by lobbyists.

Or: BESSENT UNDERSTANDS CHINA SITUATION UNSUSTAINABLE, BUT FAILS TO IDENTIFY MEANS TO RESOLUTION.

Can’t believe we live in a world where no one really knows what the tax rate is, and even if you think you've figured it out, the president might change it tomorrow anyway.

Would love to have a clip/gif of Scott Wapner saying "uh oh" just now.

A reversion to late 2019 profit margins and valuations alone would produce a 20% correction. That was the culmination of Trump's successes over his first three years (ie a strong and optimistic market). In other words, a mere sanity check, not panic, could drop the S&P 500 20%.

Adults no longer in the room. Multiples already higher. Margins already higher. Rates/inflation higher. Deficits higher. It’s a whole different world.

More honestly though: initial reaction likely to be nasty, but we are in a bull market, there are so many moving pieces, and stocks were up the week we implemented China tariffs in 2018, so 🤷‍♂️

Hug your loved ones.

"Trade War" really has a whole new meaning when the stated goal becomes annexation of your geographic neighbor.

Probably. Will need to be tested in court though.

In the 3 years of Trump's first term (pre-COVID-19), a considerable portion of the market gains were from P/E expansion and growth in profit margins. Both P/E ratios and profit margins are already higher than they were at the end of 2019. Stocks are going to have a tough time repeating 2017-2019.

Since I guess we’re all kind of introducing ourselves on here, I’ll summarize most of my recent thinking: “Man, U.S. stocks are really expensive.”