Alex Bogdan

Two-thirds of Britons disagree the Conservative Party is ready to form the next government New data from Ipsos’ latest Political Monitor, taken before the Labour and Conservative Party conferences, shows the public are deeply sceptical about the Conservatives returning to government.

Wonder what the local gov experience will mean for Reform, how much they will end up softening their policies. Data from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-th...

I like this from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk: "government is hard", a lesson all parties who make it into gvt eventually learn. But I think the public have know this for a while, and don't think anyone is up for the task. The conundrum for Lab & Cons is Reform voters back them, but theirs don't.

I suspect in practice it will be something like a letter of support from a person of standing in the community - defined as the same list of approved professions used for citizenship applications.

Full VI data here. Methods note: we are using a new methodology since this summer, caution when interpreting long term trend. www.ipsos.com/en-uk/reform...

None of this should come as a surprise when considering continued poor economic optimism and assessment of the Government's performance. Ultimately, the government is doing a poor job delivering on things that really matter to people like bills, eco stability, living standards, as we saw in summer.

2) Keir Starmer's net satisfaction of - 66 is the worst ever we have recorded, worse than Rishi Sunak before he went on to lose an election, worse than Major in '94.
3) Rachel Reeves is also in historic low territory, with - 56 net satisfaction, comparable with Kwasi Kwarteng just after mini-budget.

New VI from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social comes with many historic lows for Labour this #LabourConference2025
1) 22% Labour vote share is the lowest we've recorded for them since June 2009, at the time when Britain was still grappling with the fallout from the financial crash.

V thoughtful analysis as always, and very much matches what we're seeing as well - Labour losing voters across the spectrum and more of their voters might stay home.

Headline voting intention: September 2025 Reform UK 34% Labour 22% Conservative 14% Lib Dems 12% Green Party 12% Other 6% Reform lead = +12

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos

📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009
📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives

57% of Britons support national ID card scheme, but have significant concerns over data security and implementation Over half (57%) of Britons support the introduction of national ID cards, with support highest among Conservative voters and those over 55. Convenience and preventing illegal immigration most popular ...

ID full data here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/57-bri...
And for an interesting case study on the Online Safety Act: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/briton...

Concern is very much linked to data security, but convenience and preventing illegal immigration are convincing arguments. And we have seen in the past with the Online Safety Act, people can have concerns about data security AND at the same time support a policy.

Introduction of #DigitalID generating some interesting arguments. Worth noting national ID has broad support, but after considering a range of pros and cons, the public is split on Digital ID specifically. From @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

Public priorities on NHS, economy and bills clash with scepticism over government delivery, new Ipsos poll finds The economy/cost of living, NHS waiting times and small boat crossings continue to dominate public agenda. Despite these being public priorities, the government receives negative net satisfaction rati...

Full data here tinyurl.com/386ja2wh

People in govt may be getting frustrated that efforts are not being recognised, while the public may just be thinking this isn't good/fast enough. Some fresh energy could help get some things unstuck. But as long as overall mood stays sour, difficult to see how we move forward.

3) Mood continues to be low. Our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Economic Optimism Index shows overwhelmingly people expect the economy to get worse. Within that context, no wonder few expect the government to meet any of its priorities this parliament.

In fact, the government seems to be performing worst on issues that are most important to people.

2) Report card is ... disappointing. The public are not impressed by govt's performance so far on any of the milestones and priorities we've tested. National security does better, followed by NHS. But scathing assessment of asylum system, immigration and cost of living issues.

Reforming the asylum system and reducing immigration are also important, just possibly not to the extent suggested by the monopoly they've had on headlines recently.

As ministers are getting to grips with their new briefs, 3 things @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling tells us about public expectations & mood:
1) Public priorities are the NHS and bread & butter issues (energy bills, econ stability, living standards). They've been the same for some time

Immigration continues to be seen as the top issue facing Britain: Nearly half (48%) name immigration as an important issue facing Britain, up 8 points since July. Concern continues to be highest among Reform UK supporters (84%), older people aged 55+ and Conservative supporters (both 59%), compared with 33% of Labour supporters and 34% of 18-34 yr olds. However, the highest increases in concern this month can be seen among Labour supporters (+17 percentage points since July) and Conservative supporters (+12 points).

📊 Immigration remains Briton's top concern, up 8pts since July (48%).

Concern is strongest with Reform UK supporters (84%) in line with Farage’s ‘mass deportation’ plan announced this morning.

Labour voters are less worried (33%).

Full report 👉 bit.ly/3HDN2a9

Britons back Online Safety Act’s age checks, but are sceptical of effectiveness and unwilling to share ID Seven in ten (69%) support age verification checks on platforms that may host harmful content. However, just 19% say they would be willing to submit proof of age for dating apps, lowering to 14% for p...

Full data here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/briton...

Despite scepticism around effectiveness, 7 in 10 support age verification, including over 3 in 4 parents. And about half are likely to submit proof of age if required to access content, with email being the most popular option. But very few are willing to share financial info.

There is low confidence that the Act will prevent under 18s from seeing harmful content, though parents are more reassured. Majorities expect data breaches, government censorship, and children accessing less safe parts of the internet, but also better labelling of adult content.

With calls today to prevent children from using VPNs to access porn sites, new @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data shows 7 in 10 Brits think under 18s will find it easy to get around #OnlineSafetyAct safeguards.

We've explored behavioural barriers to registration before and they tend to be the sort that are difficult to break: lack of knowledge, social norming, political apathy. AVR will remove a barrier, but will not guarantee high turnout. More here t.co/wTAtQoaEEI

But the key challenge ahead is registration. From our work with the @electoralcommission.org.uk only 1 in 6 were correctly registered in 2022, v almost all 65+. The successful introduction of Automatic Voter Registration will be key, w/ evidence from Wales pilots I believe expected later this year?

Votes at 16% is not hugely popular among the general public - was actually the least popular policy from Labour's manifesto that we tested @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

#WelfareBill back in Commons later this week. The debate over last few months seems to have moved public opinion closer to Labour backbenchers.

Full data from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/six-te...

3. mental health doesn't seem to be prioritised by the NHS, and this especially impacts those with long-term conditions. Details here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/pollin...

2. inequalities are entrenched - people from ethnic minority backgrounds less likely to say care reflects their needs, or that they are treated with respect and dignity