Chris Warshaw

PlanScore PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

Journalists - if you're trying to determine the partisan fairness of new congressional districting plans, check out www.planscore.org.

If we are really in a new era of extreme gerrymandering, it's pretty clear that the 2030 elections are likely to be the most important election of our lifetime. The 2026 elections are important for 2030 though for determining incumbency advantage and preventing more mid-decade redistricting.

Context for gerrymandering debate

“How responsive/congruent is state policy with state public opinion” is one of the most studied poli sci questions

Red & blue states both passed more 'extreme' policy in recent decades. Blue state policy shifts were aligned with state opinion. Red states’ weren’t

PlanScore PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

According to PlanScore, the new Texas congressional map would have a +17% pro-Republican efficiency gap, which is more skewed than 97% of congressional maps over the past 50 years. planscore.org/plan.html?20...

Democrats lead in House generic ballot polls by 2.3 points How our new generic ballot average works, and what a 2-3 point Dem. win would look like in Congress

This is incredible public service journalism from @gelliottmorris.com and Strength In Numbers. Having a continually updated polling average of the generic congressional ballot—an important metric for understanding elections—is just invaluable. Support their work!

This is really cool!

Policy agendas of the American state legislatures - Scientific Data Scientific Data - Policy agendas of the American state legislatures

Here's a treat for state politics and policy researchers: Ethan Dee and I published a dataset in Nature: Scientific Data with the universe of state legislative bills since ~2009 coded by 28 policy areas. We used a machine learning model built off open source components.

Super cool! Well deserved.

From a new version of my idealstan working paper that I will be presenting at APSA.👇

I'm so proud of this not-so-little-anymore model. Vroom vroom vroom 🏎️. An order of magnitude faster than the competition (mcmcPACK).

MIT Political Science is hiring this fall, with junior lines in both American Politics (members.apsanet.org/CAREERS/eJob...) and IR. Please share widely!

Good morning, election data nerds! Here's a Monday morning present for you: we've finished updating our county-level presidential election results dataset to include 2024. The full dataset (covering 2000-2024) is now available on our Dataverse: buff.ly/eUGYc1h

This is really interesting. We just got back from a family safari trip to Kenya. Heard lots of dissatisfaction with the government. Fun to read deeper analysis of the politics. Also, excited to be colleagues!

📢 Thrilled to share our new article introducing CampaignView—a comprehensive open-source dataset of congressional candidate campaign bios and policy platforms (2018–2022). Paper + data here: campaignview.org & doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... 🧵1/4

No data yet

yeah, exactly. both tabular results and shape files are useful, but shape files obviously crucial for redistricting, synchronizing data across levels of office, and visual analysis.

Very cool! It would be great to find a time to catch-up. Let's follow-up offline.

Interesting! I definitely view VEST as the gold standard here. I guess my hope was that the NYT data is accurate enough to serve as a placeholder until VEST and @mitelectionlab.bsky.social are able to produce national data.

They have a data page that provides details when it's not from official sources.

ah, got it. that makes sense. yeah, my sense is that's true in a lot of states -- very unclear linking ideas between tabular precinct results and shape files of the maps.

Interesting! I wonder why the NYT didn't incorporate those into their map. In any case, that's super useful for end-users that are looking to assemble nationwide data. Thanks for all your efforts on this!

An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election See how your neighborhood voted on our interactive, precinct-level results map of the presidential election.

The @nytimes.com just posted an updated version of their detailed map of the 2024 election results, with the data available for download. This is invaluable in part because funding constraints have slowed down academic efforts at releasing precinct-level results. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Reality:

"The Republican budget bill, which now heads to Trump's desk, will be the most unpopular major law in at least 30 years"
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/one-big-un...

Gutting.

Personal update- I’m looking forward to starting new adventures this fall at Georgetown’s McCourt School of Public Policy (@mccourtschool.bsky.social). I’m grateful for 8 amazing years at GW. I’ll miss friends, colleagues, and students there, but fortunately I’m not moving too far.

4 polls out today on the GOP budget bill
Post-Ipsos: 23% support/42% oppose/34% no opin
KFF: 35% favorable/64% unfave
Pew: 29% favor/49% oppose/21% not sure
Economist/YouGov: 35%-51% support-oppose
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.kff.org/medicaid/pol...
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Lots going on in the world and not saying this is the most important thing, but am I reading the Senate version of Trump's BBB correctly as imposing a substantially lower endowment tax than the House version? www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/do...

These issue by issue approval ratings are very cool @gelliottmorris.com.

Overall, the special elections imply a large Democratic win in the 2025 NJ/VA elections and 2026 congressional elections. What'll happen in 2028? 🤷‍♂️

I've seen it argued that special elections aren't that predictive since Dem's did pretty well in special elections in 2024, and Republicans still won the popular vote in November. But it's worth noting that Dems are doing about 10% better (compared to 2020) in the specials this year than in 2024.

But this doesn't really tell the whole story. As Trump's approval rating has dropped, the magnitude of Democratic over-performances has grown. In the specials since April 1, the median Democratic over-performance is 16.1%.