Chris Warshaw

This looks awesome.

2024 brought high voter turnout – but a growing racial gap New data shows that while white turnout has spiked, turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated.

In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...

Wow! Amazing.

I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...

for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month!

it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.

explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

Very cool!

I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...

Has someone done an analysis of whether there’s a correlation between the racial composition of districts and Dem’s relative performances vs 2024 in special elections? @the-downballot.com @gelliottmorris.com

PlanScore now has 2024 precinct-level election data integrated into its analysis (mostly from official sources compiled by the NYT for its national map) for about 25 states. You can use it to check the fairness of maps in your state.

Hoping they all die when it gets cold.

@davesredist.bsky.social continues to be an invaluable resource for scholars and practitioners around redistricting.

Really enjoyed this discussion about the impacts of partisan redistricting and gerrymandering for control of Congress.

I remain puzzled by people who think everything is at risk and conclude that we should do exactly what they already wanted www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o...

Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.

Hey DC-area friends - you should subscribe to the non-profit Banner's new Montgomery County vertical. They have 8 full-time journalists covering Montgomery County issues. Super exciting! www.thebanner.com/montgomery/

PlanScore PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

We're slowly integrating 2024 presidential vote into the
@planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org

This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular.

"Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered."

(with A+ co-authors)

This also means people should update their view of sentiment regarding Biden economy being all media effects.

Disease prevalence in US states before & after vaccine introduction 🧪

From Edward Tufte & graphics.wsj.com/infectious-d...

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

The gerrymandering game has only just begun. The 2030s will be worse. Perhaps only then will we get serious about major reforms, such as instituting proportional representation for House seats in states with more than two or three legislators.

What would you say if you saw it in another country?

Nice work Adam.

Quote from an article in the journal Publius, "Though individual states may seek outcomes not too different from what a national standard might have achieved, the modal result will probably disadvantage weaker local groups until such time as a stronger federal role becomes conceivable again."

In 2022, @chriswarshaw.bsky.social Eric McGhee & Michael Migurski published an article in Publius on the 2021-2022 redistricting cycle.

The last lines in their article nicely summarizes the likely outcome of this tit-for-tat mid-decade redistricting mess of 2025.

academic.oup.com/publius/arti...

Check out CHIP50 newest release of executive approval data, with state-level data on approval of Trump and each state's governor. www.chip50.org/executive-ap...

For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power – Carlisle Rainey Five papers you can assign when teaching about statistical power: power analysis, minimum detectable effects, sample size planning, and design diagnosis.

New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power"

Add content on statistical power to your social science courses.

Not just to methods courses.

For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful!

www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...

Combining the TX and CA redistricting proposals in my simple house model (tinyurl.com/cmchousemodel - copy & edit!), the net effect is D+0.1 seats in a neutral year, with increasing D gains w/ national vote. Bit more responsiveness away from 50/50, too.

TX alone is R+2.1 seats, CA alone is D+2.2

Good baseline for impact of various gerrymandering schemes on 2026 is that generic ballot (Dems +3-4) implies Dem's likely to gain about 15 seats in the midterms (history implies even bigger gains). Rep's unlikely to pickup that many seats through redistricting's. So real impact will be on 2028/30.

PlanScore PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

planscore.org/plan.html?20...

agreed!

No, not yet. Finishing up revisions. Hope to post it soon.