Chris Warshaw

PoliSci Friends- I'm updating some MRP-based public opinion estimates. Anyone willing to share micro data from recent nationally representative surveys you've run (e.g., CES modules) that ask one or more batteries of binary questions about the American public's issue/policy preferences?

Not enough seats, I meant to say. But big caveat is that 5-10 seats would have HUGE effect on 2028 elections in closer national vote.

I generally agree. My personal prob that Dems take the House is 90%. Re: VRA- maybe 50-60% it gets struck down, conditional on 1, 50% it happens early enough to affect 2026, and conditional on 1 and 2, 75% yields 5+ rep seats. But I still don’t think that’s enough seats to affect midterms much.

Our book and Steve Roger’s book both show state legislatures are fairly uncompetitive. However important to note that both mayors and governors election remain pretty competitive, with lots of split ticket voting.

Or maybe prob that republicans benefit from VRA getting struck down and/or get lucky with current round of gerrymanders (eg new CA map is struck down, new TX map gets upheld by SCOTUS, FL and IN pass aggressive gerrymanders and VA stays put).

This seems right to me.

Even accounting for the new congressional maps, a swing like Aftyn Behn's (Trump+22 to D-8.6) would net Dems 259 seats in the midterms.

Even if the swing is *half* of tonight's, Dems win the House with 229 seats

Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

YouTube video by CNN Watch Stephen Colbert at the 2006 White House Corresponde...

youtu.be/IJ-a2KeyCAY?...

Our new U.S. House map is the first to track nationwide partisan skew in the evolving 2025/2026 mid-decade redistricting

planscore.org#!2026-ushouse

I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world?

Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)

Super cool!

All of the above seems best for out of power parties trying to win control.

From an academic perspective, maybe not. But it would shift control of Congress, right?

Okay but that 1.5 pp is pretty consequential in elections.

Love to have this all in one spot. The ANES truly is a gift.

We’re adding this and other maps from this year’s fast-moving midcycle redistricting to our library of current plans:

- Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/
- North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort...
- California planscore.org/library/cali...
- Texas planscore.org/library/texas/

It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report.
Here is the report:
aapor.org/wp-content/u...
And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...

Gerrymandering is bad. Expanding it is even worse. | Opinion Constant redistricting of electoral maps is likely to make congressional elections even less competitive.

My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out.

1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow.

www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...

This graphic is in terms of margin, so not quite that bleak. But still pretty bad…

Although the Callais case at SCOTUS involves a high-profile congressional redistricting dispute, important to remember that most Section 2 cases (2/3!) continue to involve local government bodies like city councils & school boards. - mostly challenges to at-large systems.

need Sunday reading? explore what's on the ballot next month!

I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.

so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️

This looks awesome.

2024 brought high voter turnout – but a growing racial gap New data shows that while white turnout has spiked, turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated.

In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...

Wow! Amazing.

I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...

for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month!

it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states.

explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

Very cool!

I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...

Has someone done an analysis of whether there’s a correlation between the racial composition of districts and Dem’s relative performances vs 2024 in special elections? @the-downballot.com @gelliottmorris.com

PlanScore now has 2024 precinct-level election data integrated into its analysis (mostly from official sources compiled by the NYT for its national map) for about 25 states. You can use it to check the fairness of maps in your state.