Aaron Songer

This sounds about right.

Is the difference that dot com boom-bust was more widespread? Current spending mainly concentrated in Mag7. Actually 5 are spending and 1, Nvidia receiving and 1, Apple kind of middling about.

That’s a fair summary. Not sure Nashville should have been down to 10.

Looking forward to getting Harriet and Q Sullivan back.

Two points.

Democrats declined from 62% a year ago and only the second time Democrats pride has fallen below 50%. The last time being 2020.

Independents are also at a low point of 53%.

I’m not sure I’m surprised. It didn’t impact that bill went forward. Similar to Senator Collins. Show a mini protest but doesn’t really impact anything.

PA7, PA8, and PA10 are projected to have more constituents lose Medicaid (3x) than the number of votes they won by in 2024.

Illegal Border Crossings Plunge to Lowest Level in Decades

Illegal Border Crossings Plunge to Lowest Level in Decades www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/u...

The stat is those that have been caught at border not those they have entered. Crossed but not encountered is unknown by definition.

Immigrants are more likely to avoid encounters given current policies.

McKenzie in PA7 won by 4,062 votes. 4x as many will be losing Medicaid in his district.

Bresnahan in PA8 won by 6,252; 3x as many lose Medicaid.

Perry in PA10 won by 5,133; 3x as many lose Medicaid.

Interesting reelection strategy.

I think about the good that Marco has done for players in development such as Jedi and Wilson.

Think he can do the same for ESR. But I can’t name a player from a ‘big club’ that Marco has helped get back.

Granted, we are talking only 4 years for Marco.

I wish I were too young to have Twitter in 2009.

I think LLMs will get embedded in broader applications. It will be just part of the overall functionality.

LLMs embedded in coding software is an example.

Programmers now being laid off due to greater efficiency. Expect this to reverse as demand increases due to lower costs to build apps.

If he were deported, does that increase or decrease his chances of winning the election?

I’d bet on the over.

I think the best analogy is spreadsheets.

In the early days they had bare bones functionality. Now, everyone uses them for ad hoc user friendly reporting/data analysis. Ubiquitous, but not differentiators.

Also, LLMs don’t have Excel like network effect that drive everyone to a standardized model.

Opinions will continue to climb if they can use the $s and make public transportation better. Be able to show how the charges were used to improve other aspects of transportation.

Would be a shame if this just stagnated.

I believe ESR was supposed to be that person. Any chance he gets there this year?

Is the situation that the DOJ will now have to argue 50 different cases. From just a logistical perspective that would seem difficult?

The plaintiffs can share resources.

Wondering if we are going to a place where the government has less of a resource advantage; perhaps at a disadvantage.

What makes us believe that the EU is rushing. Trump doesn’t really have deadlines (TACO trade) and this language suggests that the Americans have negotiating leverage and can wait. I don’t believe this is the case.

There are 7 federal buildings in LA. That’s 340 troops per building.

There are approximately 8,800 LA police officers to protect the entire city of 3.8 million people.

While bananas are a stretch, we could make bandanas.

The larger inherent conflict is that payment of tariffs means that goods continue to be imported. Lutnick highlighted today in congressional testimony. Manufacture in US—>no tariffs. Expecting tariffs means Trump expects imports to continue and no increase in US manufacturing. 🤔

Add in Jack McGlynn and the Aaronson brothers and that's a pretty full Union contingent. Hope they get a fair bit of time on the field together.

Doesn’t the amortization keep coming through? Would be helpful if Athletic had the embedded cost from prior transfers that will come through in 25/26.

But, will tariffs save steel jobs? Perhaps in the short term. In the medium - long term, the production of goods that use steel makes them uncompetitive and the need for US steel declines.

Home buyers, car buyers, and drink (can) buyers are among those that will see higher prices…

There. Fixed it.

We'll make a lot more ChatGPT requests than hamburgers we eat.

Americans eat 50 billion hamburgers a year vs 5 trillion google searches globally. That's 100 searches for every hamburger.

Renaming ships. Renaming military bases. Blaming DEI on plane/helicopter crash. Signalgate.

Yet we haven’t seen a drop off in military recruitment. That will be the tell.

Nobody read the whole bill. Many people read part(s) of the bill.

I don’t understand why she said this.

I find it mildly interesting that the article is about the legality of firing the director and not the fact that the person overseeing the most powerful military on earth is concerned with the activities of the director of the national portrait gallery..while war in Gaza and Ukraine continue.

I think that’s about right.

99.95% of time airline workers do a great job.

I also believe 99% of the time passengers are respectful.

It’s the 0.05% and 1% and that’s probably because of something beyond the flight (stress at home/job).

Be kind

Generally, those that need healthcare will jump through the hoops to get it. Those people with chronic conditions may not and will stop medications, Dr visits etc. They wait until a medical event. go to emergency room and sign up that day. This is actually more expensive and like the pre ACA days.

The money isn't allocated to individuals like social security. Its a giant pool. Able bodied individuals almost by definition don't use a lot of healthcare. So there isn't a lot of savings.
Reporting requirements will kick others off the rolls, not just the able bodied.

Couple thoughts
Many people think medicaid $'s go to the member. That's why the able bodied argument works for many. People think of it like welfare and someone living off it.
90 cents of every $ spent on medicaid goes to healthcare providers. The rest is admin/oversight.