HK Geopolitics

Word to the wise: work requirements and means testing for welfare make anti-poverty programs LESS cost effective per unit of aid rendered to recipients because of the administrative costs required to verify eligibility. That means more burden on the taxpayer for the same amount of aid given.

As someone who has reported on AI for 7 years and covered China tech as well, I think the biggest lesson to be drawn from DeepSeek is the huge cracks it illustrates with the current dominant paradigm of AI development. A long thread. 1/

It certainly can be: my micro 101 professor gave me an oversimplified model of the minimum wage, and lo and behold he got his PhD at George Mason, where the econ department is known to get a lot of money from the Koch foundation. Other economists like Krugman make a point to draw from other fields

As an econ person, I agree. A lot of basic econ knowledge from 101 classes that only teach oversimplified comparative statics without testing their conclusions against empirical literature often leads students to the wrong conclusions. Econometrics should be taught in parallel to 101 classes imo.

America's losing streak in health outcomes is bound to get much worse in the coming decades. CMS collects demographic data because, -crazy, I know- different populations have different health needs. Not having it will just make their job harder, which is clearly the goal.

Does the circulation of these manuals imply that Russian and Ukrainian units are generally expected to procure their own FPV drones as opposed to having them supplied through official logistics chains?

The EO betrays a priority of the Trump admin that will be buried in the turbulent coming news cycle: destroying the ability of the state to provide public services which benefit all Americans to protect the fortunes of the oligarchs that sponsor it. Fortunes too vast to spend in a human lifetime.

Multinational corporations love to work in places with labor forces shaped by public education, security provided by state police forces, and state infrastructure which would be prohibitively expensive to create. But when its time to contribute to those things via taxes they scurry off to tax havens

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global Tax Deal (Global Tax Deal) – The White House MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE THE PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE UNITED STATES TO THE ORGANIZATION

Having a society requires taxes to fund services that can't be provided by private enterprise, and the use of tax havens is a fundamental tool used by oligarchs to avoid paying their dues to the public institutions that enable their enterprises to operate. ⤵️

www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Unfortunately the event doesn't have to exactly match the narrative to be spinnable for propaganda, it just needs to be close enough. The attackers name and the fact that he professed allegiance to ISIS is all that was needed for the far right to run with it.

Ok but what if they drop a red hot iron ball onto the surface

How audience-capture via algorithms works: creators ultimately shape the very narratives they are reacting to ⤵️

The roughly mid to low 60% rating for both parties as far back as 2002 shows the depth of the anti-intellectual rot and the taking for granted of public health miracles in American culture.

Not sure if this is relevant, but I will point out that Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems (formerly Orbital ATK), an aerospace defense division of Northrop Grumman, is headquartered in Dulles.

Interesting: the Ukrainian military’s data show that Russian warplanes have reduced their guided bomb attacks by half since Kyiv started firing Western longer-range missiles at targets inside Russia (which has forced fighter-bombers to farther away airfields). www.agents.media/moskva-vdvoe...

If they successfully harm the FDIC, being back in the Gilded Age would be less gallows humor and more a sober assessment of reality. They would be setting us up to learn an unconscionably harsh lesson all over again for no good reason.

Per his press conference yesterday, he is not barred in New York, but there are processes by which an attorney can be allowed to represent a client outside of their state, so there is a chance he may still represent Mangione outside of Pennsylvania.

An 'unprecedented' good news story about a deadly viral outbreak The death rate for Marburg virus can be as high as 90%. There are no approved vaccines and treatments. So how did Rwanda achieve what one doctor calls an "unprecedented" success in controlling its outbreak?

Rwanda is an unsung public health powerhouse, and a testament to the dividends that gov't investment in public health can yield. Even if you're driven purely by pocketbook logic, maximizing access to healthcare is one of the best investments a country can make.

www.npr.org/sections/goa...

I took a hiatus from reading books after finishing grad school, but I've since returned. After being immersed in digital media for so long, it took real effort to fully focus on print media with no distractions or skipping around paragraphs. I do think the ubiquity of digital media is part of this

On the other hand, it could be a signal of the seriousness of their intent to eventually do so.

That Xi Jinping sees the corruption in the PLA and is working to uproot it is a double edged sword. On one hand, it could take several years for him to become confident that the problem is fixed and that readiness has been restored, pushing back the timeline if China does intend to invade Taiwan.

YouTube video by Perun How Corruption Destroys Armies - Theft, Graft, and Russian failure in Ukraine

When such resources exist on paper but not in reality, it can tempt leaders who do not know the extent of the corruption to undergo military endeavors that are far too ambitious for the resources their armies actually posses. Perun on YouTube has a great vid on this

www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9i4...

In one notable case from earlier this year resulting in the dismissal of 9 senior PLA officials, nuclear rockets had allegedly been emptied of their fuel and instead filled with water.

www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/...

Suddenly, critical supplies such as fuel, spare parts for vehicles, or funds are nowhere to be found when they are needed because they've been sold on the black market or gone into the pockets of corrupt personnel.

When corruption in the military is tolerated, it can benefit the regime by securing the loyalty of leadership who want to retain the supplemental income they get from embezzlement or selling gov't property. However, the bill for this political convenience comes due when it is time to actually fight.

Xi Jinping seems determined not to repeat Russia's mistake of allowing corruption to corrode military readiness. Military corruption presents a danger in that it causes leaders to think their militaries are more capable than they actually are. 🧵

www.economist.com/china/2024/1...

Find Out Why Health Insurance Denied Your Claim You likely have the right to access records that explain why your insurer denied your claim or prior authorization request. Use ProPublica’s free tool to generate a letter requesting your claim file f...

I don't know who needs to know this, but Pro Publica has an online thing that will format a letter to your US health insurance company to demand the records behind a claim denial. (which the insurance is then legally required to provide in most cases)

projects.propublica.org/claimfile/

It isn't a formal text by an economist, but The Healing of America by T.R. Reid is a good primer. It takes an approach of comparing health systems abroad to that of the United States, and works towards a characterization of the American system as an incomplete 'patchwork' of systems vs. a single one

It is worth noting that the Russian military already maintains a permanent presence and infrastructure in the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia.

Although Russia's resources and focus will undoubtedly be tied up in Ukraine for the immediate future, the opportunity for a ceasefire brokered by the incoming Trump admin could free up a battle hardened Russian military for activities in Georgia if the Kremlin sees fit.