Stephen Geary

🧵 Thread: I recently explored a few ideas to analyze a team's press in more detail 👇

1️⃣ Pressing triggers

▫️By focusing on the opponent's pass before a 1st pressing action in a sequence, it's possible to separate different triggers

👇 The graphic shows an example, with the 8 triggers that I defined

The mountains are calling and I must go

hockey :)

Expected goals and the Monte Carlo Trap On a team level, xG is often used to assess the quality of the goal scoring opportunities that a team creates and concedes. That is, it…

We can use xG to compute post-hoc win-draw-loss probabilities.

Our new blogpost shows MCMC's estimates of these probabilities are unstable, computing them exactly is faster than approximating them, and MCMC's runtime strongly depends on its implementation.

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...

three Schwarber HRs, one for each of the three Phillies (Trea, Sanchez, Ranger) who were snubbed for the ASG

Research reveals a paradox: the more people understand AI, the more hesitant they may become to embrace it.

paradox, you say

New #CMSAC #SportsAnalytics paper on evaluating change of direction in the #NFL by myself and @stat-ron.bsky.social

arxiv.org/pdf/2507.06122

Spoiler alert: DK Metcalf displays straight-line, less agile movement, while George Pickens exhibits erratic, more variable directional movement.

I swear to god, if all those Panthers players coming onto the ice at the same time causes me data issues lmao

Good morning, some cool skeletal XG research just dropped by KTH and Tracab!

📎 tinyurl.com/skor-xg

(Users clamoring for more sports posting)

[posts about the Mariners]

Hello, human resources?

stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/

Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft

A graph titled 'Probability the Player is Drafted at Each Pick in the First Round'

A graph titled 'Probability the Player is Available at Each Pick in the First Round'

And a couple of additional graphs:

stephengeary.shinyapps.io/draftsim/

Created a simple shinyapp to visualize a Monte Carlo simulation of the upcoming NHL Draft

What makes a rebuild successful?

I did a deep dive on the Panthers 2024 cup winning roster to find out.

puckluckanalytics.com/2025/05/14/r...

NEW with @simonkuper.bsky.social:

The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong.

Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play.

Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.

“Tradition of success in Dallas” 🤨

I think Arsenal fans would disagree. Felt quite magical.

The guide to gradients in R and ggplot2 – James Goldie Visualising data and building things for fun and for change. #climatehealth → #datajournalism

I’ve been using the new gradients and patterns in #rstats and #ggplot2 quite a bit for recent package, so here’s a deep dive! Everything from the basics of using gradients in your plots through to sophisticated visual effects.

jamesgoldie.dev/writing/stac...

These have both been great

NFL Teambuilding, Part 2 Get your dice out of my sports

Too many March Madness references for me to delay posting this any longer!

If you've ever wondered why you're bothering to talk about football without using dice to illustrate your point, boy do I have some thoughts for you

Stella Jean’s & An’s Dry Cleaning are two of my favorites here in SD

Justin Bailey turns on the JETS in the penalty shot⛽️😮‍💨

#ONTvsSD

Tim Robinson in the “TABLES” sketch saying “it’s the same actor I don’t know if it’s supposed to be the same person”

Me watching Severance:

Tonight’s three stars of the game:

🌟 Coulson Pitre
⭐️⭐️ Tristan Luneau
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Tyson Hinds

#LetsGoGulls #ABBvsSD

I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork}

www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...

"all I gotta say is GO FUCKING BIRDS!" - Landon Dickerson

lmao

Good Afternoon from your Super Bowl Champion, Philadelphia Eagles.

THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ARE SUPER BOWL 59 CHAMPIONS

MERRILL REESE AND MIKE QUICK ON THE CALL

1/2

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!
THIS ONE’S FOR YOU PHILLY!