Cameron Martin

A little overshadowed by the GDP data this morning, but worth noting that households' inflation expectations have crept up again in the latest BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey.

Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022

As a former resident of wonk-land, this made me snort

www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Economy in brief: August 2025 | CBI Your monthly guide to the UK economy, giving you a monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK's main business sectors.

Sticky inflation vs a cooling labour market — a tough trade-off for the MPC.

In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity

Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Not good.

www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

My only geopolitical insight today: Macron is always the best dressed global leader.

UK GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q2 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.1%. Nonetheless, this marked a slowdown from the 0.7% growth seen over Q1 2025.

Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...

Private sector anticipates broad-based contraction through October - CBI Growth Indicator | CBI Private sector anticipates broad-based contraction through October - CBI Growth Indicator

“Firms continue to face testing conditions, with expectations pointing to another quarter of falling activity across the economy” @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social
To find out more, check out our July Growth Indicator Press Release 🔓: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Our latest Growth Indicator points to another broad-based contraction in private sector activity through to October. #GI

Economic deep dive Q2 2025 | CBI Your quarterly guide to the UK economy; making sense of the key trends and what's driving them.

The UK economy surprised with strong growth in Q1 2025, but faced domestic and global headwinds in Q2 📉 Our latest Economic Deep Dive cuts through the noise to break down trends in demand, inflation, labour, and investment 🔍

Exclusive to CBI members🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

June's DTS showed another fall in retail sales volumes, extending a long period of weakness. July isn't expected to be any better, with retailers citing consumer caution as a reason for weak sales.

Only 3% of median-income Millennial households (27-42 year olds) are predicted to achieve "moderate" living standards in retirement

Save more / work longer / generate higher investment returns

Of course, the most important release this is week is our own economic forecast on Wednesday - which will outline our view of the UK economic outlook over the next couple of years, amid continued domestic headwinds and increasing geopolitical volatility

On the 0.3% fall in GDP over April: worth noting that business surveys (including our own) have been pointing to weaker activity than official data for some time now. The latest outturn may be be the start of that divergence narrowing, but...

It was always unlikely the strong growth figures we saw in Q1 would be sustained. Though a fall of 0.3% was worse than expected, as both higher taxes and "Liberation-Day" related disruption weighed on activity

#Retail sales volumes rose for the fourth consecutive month, by 1.2% in April (m/m), following a rise of 0.1% in March. Compared against pre-pandemic levels, volumes were up by 0.3%, at their highest since July 2022.

UK CPI #inflation rose to 3.5% in April (from 2.6% in March), broadly in line with Bank of England expectations. This marked the highest rate of inflation since January 2024. Core CPI inflation also picked up to 3.8%, from 3.4% last month

CBI responds to UK-EU Summit | CBI After the turbulence of the last decade, today's Summit marks a leap forward in the EU-UK relationship.

Congratulations to the government on its #UKEUReset showing that it’s serious about #growth and backing business. Firms across the UK will welcome commitments on regulatory cooperation, defence, net zero and trade with Northern Ireland.

Full response: bit.ly/3H3rm6M 👇

Understanding the methodology behind Moody’s US downgrade [FREE TO READ] It’s just, like, their opinion man

Fantastic @tobyn.bsky.social-post looking at the details of Moody’s methodology, which indicate that on raw “fiscal strength” alone the US might only warrant a super-junky Caa2 rating. on.ft.com/4dpLMmf

UK GDP grew by a robust 0.7% in Q1 2025, beating consensus estimates of 0.6%. This follows on from 0.1% in Q4 2024. The economy has grown 1.3% over the past year.

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