Lawrence McKay

Yesterday, I gave an internal presentation at Cardiff Uni on the relationship between ideology and third-sector employment, using the British Election Study panel and the stacked DiD method. It's with @lawrencemckay.bsky.social and we seem to have results; look out for it at 2026 conferences!

Nearly a third of university 18-year-olds will live at home According to figures from Ucas, a record 89,510 18-year-olds with university offers plan to live at home when they begin their studies this autumn

One of the reasons that emergence of ‘cold spots’ of subject provision matters: 52% of 18 year olds from the most disadvantaged backgrounds (the most deprived quintile in the Indices of Multiple Deprivation) plan to live at home when they go the university
www.thetimes.com/article/22cc...

BJPolS Abstract discussing educational attainment, social networks, and political behavior in Germany, the UK, and Switzerland.

From October 2025 -

Educational Networks, Social Closure, and Cleavage Stabilization - cup.org/47ifc4B

"we show that educational divides are diminished in the presence of countervailing networks"

- @davidattewell6.bsky.social & @dpzollinger.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century The idea that the presence of Western European political parties at grassroots level rose and fell in the twentieth century is central to some of the …

🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social:

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

These guys are absolutely the funniest sporting body in the world. The IOC is more evil, the FIA is more incompetent, but nothing beats FIFA for shameless corrupt pandering. No notes.

The line here that made my ears prick up (and should really spook Labour) is the third one (that we need “fair and managed” migration). That’s not the answer of someone who has come to get his 12 per cent. That’s a much more “no, when I say I want to replace Labour, I’m not coming to play” line.

Ngl, this sends alarm bells more than any other poll

Reform UK do Dadaism

Political communication research overwhelmingly relies on text. But parliamentary speech is multimodal! In our new @psrm.bsky.social article, Mathias Rask and I show that legislators also signal partisan conflict nonverbally— through changes in vocal pitch during floor speeches. 🧵 1/11 #polisky

Burdens and gains. The association between house rent increases and voting in the city of Madrid Existing research indicates that the electoral effects of changing house rents depend on political parties’ left-right positioning and adherence to po…

🎉🚨 Super happy to see our article “Burdens and Gains. The Association Between House Rent Increases and Voting in the City of Madrid” (w/ Marcos-Marne) now out in @electoralstudies.bsky.social. We examine how rising rental prices in Madrid are linked to voting.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Authoritarian parents have negative effects on behaviour - Understanding Society A new ‘explainer’ from Understanding Society sets out how the Welsh Government has used Understanding Society data Welsh Government uses Understanding Society to examine parenting before legislation

New case study published today: Welsh Government used Understanding Society to look at parenting before law banning physical punishment

I don’t think I’m over interpreting but Polanski seems to hint quite strongly in his Rest is Politics podcast that he’s thinking of running against Stella Creasy in Walthamstow. Think that would be a pretty brave move (in the Sir Humphrey sense). One of the v few Labour with a genuine personal vote

🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered?

Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social

There is understandably a great deal of interest in fighting populism. I share the normative aspiration.
Yet the more I think about it, the more I find myself drawn to a more pessimistic interpretation. The latter may well be wrong. But articulating it helps clarify whether there are strong grounds

No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?

Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts

bsky.app/profile/robj...

Although, one point where our evidence does seem to support UK govt position: targets don't seem to help. For the same level of net migration, people would not rate the government as handling immigration better if they had beat their target.

Full thread on the results here - with great collaborators @williamlallen.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/robj...

No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?

Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts

bsky.app/profile/robj...

UK net migration fell to 204,000 in year to June - live updates Net migration, the difference between those entering and leaving the country, was 345,000 in 2024 according to revised figures.

Net migration fell sharply agaim to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, having been 344k in 2024 and 848k in 2023. But falling immigration has been the biggest secret - and it is time for the media and political debate to catch up with this change
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...

Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....

Nothing but respect if Reeves says "shall we all just have the hour back if everyone's read it?"

New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!

We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.

Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇

Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)

*Pops over to X* Has he? Has he been? YES! He's published an 1,835-word tweet rebuttal of a report he hasn't read!

New publication!📢
@jvanslageren.bsky.social and I study political socialization during adolescence in urban and rural areas, using data from @adkspanel.bsky.social

Discussing politics with parents and peers is positively related to multiculturalist attitudes in cities, but not in rural places (1/3)

The Worlds "Most Independent" Central Bank... or Just Pretending? How null results didn’t kill my project - they rewrote it. They revealed a new, measurable form of responsiveness inside the most secretive central bank in the world.

🚨New piece forthcoming in @jeppjournal.bsky.social .

I tried to prove the ECB is politically responsive… and failed.
But the failure turned into the discovery. Read more:

Substack post: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...

Preprint: osf.io/gxrtc/files/...

Second POAL methods brief by amazing @laurenleek.eu on how leading polling and survey providers deal with AI bots with tips for researchers fielding their own surveys too!

I think the conventional wisdom that switching to PR, even explicitly to block Reform, would delegitimise the system is completely wrong. You would get buy-in from every other party, bar maybe the Tories, and it's historically the main reason electoral reform happens. www.jstor.org/stable/2585577

"If this is the stuff dreams are made of /
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"

Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom