The Blob warned us

It's not getting less interesting.

Could the zigzag look of the SH polar vortex section reveal a complex of vertical wave reflections, increasingly trapped between more stable layer boundaries?

We wrecked the southern hemisphere polar vortex.

October 10-12 will bring the next wave driven warming pulse in the southern polar stratosphere.

The GEFS extended begins to look like the polar vortex in the southern hemisphere exhibits wave activity again in early October, potentially closing the seasonal ozone hole, yielding early final warming influence on the SAM

Two major sudden warming events in the unprecedentedly active stratosphere during the boreal winter of 2023/2024 and their distinct surface impacts over China In the boreal winter of 2023/2024, the 10-hPa stratosphere experienced unprecedented planetary wave activity. This led to two major sudden stratospher…

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

2002, 2019, 2024, 2025???

Southern hemisphere polar vortex exhibiting what will probably be termed a sudden stratospheric warming or series of warmings.

If there is a significant SSW this year in the Antarctic, it becomes 2002, 2019, 2024, 2025 and that's already too many.

Antarctic polar vortex wind decelerating twice over coming weeks. A second peak in temperatures also likely.

GFS southern annular mode index

Southern hemisphere polar vortex probably wave reflecting, pales in comparison to last year 's early August reflection. Read about 2024 here: earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/15325...

A Series of Rare Disturbances in the Stratosphere The polar vortex elongated and weakened over Antarctica, causing rare warming events.

NASA EARTH 🎑 A Series of Rare Disturbances in the Stratosphere: The polar vortex elongated and weakened over Antarctica, causing rare warming events.

Last month was the 3rd lowest #Antarctic sea ice extent on record for the month of August.

This was 1,250,000 km² below the 1981-2010 August average. Data from the nsidc.org/data/seaice_...

in some areas there's more change than climate

SSW watch in the antarctic.

An early final warning, or late midwinter SSW in the antarctic? The stratosphere has been wild for a handful of these recent years and that might be the direction and pace of change.

ECMWF extended for the wind of the southern polar jet, big drop in wind week 2 in today's ensemble. August 8nd was the start of SSW, October 6th is 60 days after, marking the lifetime of these events. Still no wind reversals.

Antarctic stratospheric warming inbound.

CFS offers complete deceleration of the 2hPa antarctic polar vortex Oct 6-7

Feeling fidgety

There is a faint signal for something warm in the Antarctic stratosphere around October 7th.

YouTube video by NSF NCAR MMM Laboratory Understanding wind shear controls on West African MCSs using the convection-permitting MetUM

youtu.be/6v0r_smwPaY

AGW is implicated in the underperforming Atlantic hurricane season, so where are the attribution runs showing more/stronger storms in preindustrial world?

Antarctic polar vortex disturbance is ramping back up. There was a quiet month after an extremely strong vertical wave reflection in early August. The resulting wave breaking cleared the field for the past month, now the seasonal top down destruction of the vortex is coming. Will it hit the core?

After a quiet month following the disturbance in July, the Antarctic polar vortex is once again showing signs of instability, now in the heart of breakdown season. I would expect cold air outbreaks at the surface in late September, warm Antarctica, warm South America, cold Australia.

Long range southern hemisphere temperatures in the stratosphere have been on average for a couple of weeks. I still think there is a chance for some dynamic drama in October, however the ensembles are showing no such signal.