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Sascha Ostanina

@saschaostanina.bsky.social

Political & Security Risk Analyst Specialised in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova, & the South Caucasus

193 Followers  |  75 Following  |  170 Posts  |  Joined: 29.10.2023  |  1.7651

Latest posts by saschaostanina.bsky.social on Bluesky

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#UK's nuclear deterrent relies on submarines armed w/ Trident ballistic missiles, leased from the #US & regularly returned to the US base in Kingโ€™s Bay, Georgia for maintenance. Missile testing is carried out under US supervision at Cape Canaveral, Florida: www.ft.com/content/1503...

10.03.2025 08:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Zelenskiy calls for European army to deter Russia, earn US respect Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Saturday for the creation of a European army, arguing the continent could no longer be sure of protection from the United States and would only get respect from Washington with a strong military.

#Europe won't have a seat at the table for #Ukraine peace talks, Donald Trump's envoy Kellogg said, after the #US sent a questionnaire to European capitals to ask what they could contribute to security guarantees for Ukraine: www.reuters.com/world/europe...

15.02.2025 20:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 23    ๐Ÿ” 7    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Im Umfeld von Selenskyj wรคchst der Eindruck, dass sich Trump als Vermittler und nicht als Verbรผndeter der Ukraine sieht. Wenn sich der wichtigste Verbรผndete aus Eigennutz selbst zum Schiedsrichter ernennt, droht eine herbeigefรผhrte Katastrophe. Weil Russland immer Regeln bricht.

12.02.2025 19:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 907    ๐Ÿ” 238    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 30    ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
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Almost half of Ukraineโ€™s mineral deposits are occupied or already owned. Almost half of Ukraineโ€™s mineral deposits are occupied or already owned. - Economy

In #Ukraine, #Russia occupies 41 coal deposits (60% of reserves), nine oil deposits (11%), 27 areas with gas deposits (about 20%), 42% of metal deposits, & 33% of rare earth metals & minerals. In other words, resources worth $12.5T are under occupation: ubn.news/almost-half-...

11.02.2025 13:17 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image 09.02.2025 21:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Just have the EU issue Eurobonds and have the EU issue the damn contracts. Itโ€™s all very straightforward.

European leaders are avoiding the obvious way forward because their MFAs/MODs donโ€™t want to cede authority to Brussels. All very petty.

03.02.2025 13:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 26    ๐Ÿ” 9    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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On defence, Europe's talk is still cheap Promises of increased spending will not solve the problem industries have been raising for months as the contracts are still lacking.

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ promises more defence spending, but orders are still missing. ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ 155mm artillery producer Patria has been waiting for contracts since last spring. Once contracts arrive, delivery will still take a year:
www.euractiv.com/section/defe...

03.02.2025 09:43 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 147    ๐Ÿ” 29    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
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No Washington, no problem: How Europe can support Ukraine and ensure its own security without U.S. aid A few days ago, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered a 90-day suspension of funding for most foreign aid programs, including assistance to Ukraine. If the Trump administration completely halts ...

Since 2022, ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง& ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Storm Shadow & Taurus production lines remain idle. ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท maintained a SCALP-EG production line running at <100 units/year. Instead of ramping up, Europe relied on ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ, but Biden slowed missile deliveries to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, & Trump may not restart them: theins.ru/en/opinion/f...

02.02.2025 10:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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It's taken Russians two years to advance 10km (6miles) from Bakhmut to the town of Chasiv Yar.

After a thriving pre-war population of 13,000, the town now resembles everything Russia has ever touched, with only 600 residents somehow clinging to life.

This is the Russian world

31.01.2025 08:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 67    ๐Ÿ” 19    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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#SouthKorea: Vessels belonging to #Russia's Pacific Fleet were detected moving about 1,500 #NorthKorea|n special forces troops to Vladivostok for training for combat in #Urkaine. The troops have been supplied with ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ military uniforms, weapons, & fake IDs: www.reuters.com/world/south-...

18.10.2024 11:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The IMF will become the first major international financial body to send its official mission to #Russia since the invasion of #Ukraine in 2022. An IMF delegation will visit Moscow for meetings with Russian officials until Oct. 1.
www.reuters.com/world/imf-co...

04.09.2024 06:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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EU Commission mulls delaying budget proposal until after German election Officials also think that time would be too short to submit plan before July 2025 deadline.

The @EU_Commission is considering postponing setting out plans for its โ‚ฌ1.2 trillion 7-year budget until after #Germany's 2025 election to gauge the preferences of the new ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช government on such sensitive questions as issuing common debt to fund ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ defence
www.politico.eu/article/euro...

03.09.2024 08:21 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Defense firms need full access to EU cash as Putin haunts Europe, Draghi says Looming threats must spark major rethink of European defense policy, according to draft of new report seen by POLITICO.

Former #Italy PM #MarioDraghi urges boosting EU defence by increasing access to EU cash, easing merger rules regardless of competition concerns, prioritising European solutions, and establishing a centralised EU procurement agency: www.politico.eu/article/mari...

02.09.2024 12:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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These #Russia|n military installations are legitimate targets for #Ukraine's strikes. Yet, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ is being artificially restricted from targeting them.
"Hundreds of known ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ military & paramilitary objects in ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ are in range of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ ATACMS" - @TheStudyofWar
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

28.08.2024 08:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Russian oligarch files $16B claim against Luxembourg over frozen assets Mikhail Fridman was removed from the EUโ€™s sanctions list after a legal challenge.

Russian oligarch Fridman has filed a $16bn claim against Luxembourg over its decision to freeze his assets after he was placed on an EU sanctions list. His legal team includes Cherie Blair, the wife of former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair
www.politico.eu/article/mikh...

20.08.2024 13:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Exports from the #EU with #Kazakhstan, #Armenia, #Azerbaijan, #Georgia, #Turkey and the other #CentralAsia countries increased by โ‚ฌ46bn in 2023, up 50% from 2021. That was equivalent to 3/4 of the drop in Europeโ€™s exports to #Russia from 2021 to 2023
www.economist.com/europe/2024/...

20.08.2024 12:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Thanks to #Ukraine's Kursk offensive, #Germany has realised that using ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช-made weapons inside #Russia doesnโ€™t make ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช a party to the war. Itโ€™s the perfect time for Chancellor Scholz to reconsider and send Taurus missiles to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. No, this doesn't require sending ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช soldiers to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

16.08.2024 11:32 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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What Is Ukraineโ€™s Goal in Kursk? Ukraine is making gains on Russian soil. But is Kyiv losing troops it canโ€™t replace?

Ukrainian troops are still getting outfired by Russian artillery by a ratio of about 8 to 1. That's down from about 20 to 1 before Congress passed the $60 billion U.S. military aid bill for #Ukraine in June, Ukrainian officials said.
foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/14/u...

16.08.2024 11:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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#Germany's Cologne-Wahn military base next to #Cologne airport has been sealed off & 5,500 of soldiers & civilians working there advised not to drink tap water after someone forced their way into the premises. Authorities investigate possible sabotage
www.reuters.com/world/europe...

14.08.2024 13:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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#Russia has trained its navy to target sites deep inside Europe w/ missiles that can carry conventional warheads or tactical nuclear weapons. ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ's 2008-14 files include a target list in Europe & highlight the advantages of using โ˜ข๏ธstrikes at an early stage
www.ft.com/content/237e...

13.08.2024 10:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Berlin defence strategy eyes stakes in arms companies, report says The German government could take a stake in arms-makers and defence projects in "strategic cases", according to a draft paper written by the economy and defence ministries, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Thursday.

#Germanyโ€™s government could take stakes in arms-makers & defence projects that it deems strategically important - already allowed in principle - more frequently, according to a draft paper written by the economy and defence ministries. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

12.08.2024 09:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Bundeswehr mit Verbindungsoffizier dauerhaft im Pazifik vertreten Pistorius bemรผht sich auf seiner Indopazifik-Reise, den Partnern ein nachhaltig hinterlegtes Engagement Deutschlands zu signalisieren.

Germany is to permanently station a liaison officer in the USโ€™ Indo-Pacific Command (nice job, as based in Hawaii)
table.media/security/new...

07.08.2024 08:29 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 25    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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#Turkey is the 2nd biggest source, behind #China, of high-priority, US-origin goods sent to #Russia, according to the #US Treasury. Turkeyโ€™s exports of military-linked goods to Russia or its intermediaries registered $85mn in H1 2024 ($27mn in H1 2022)
www.ft.com/content/e7e4...

07.08.2024 08:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The missing middle of technology investmentโ€”insufficient funding for commercial productionโ€”is evident in each and every one of these failures, but the loss of expertise is an added dimension
www.technologyreview.com/2024/07/30/1...

06.08.2024 12:16 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Ukraine Had A Chance To Blow Up Russiaโ€™s Best Warplanes On The Tarmac. The White House Said Noโ€”And Now Itโ€™s Too Late. Ukraine is still hitting Russian airfields, but only with less destructive drones.

This summer, #Russiaโ€™s air force parked dozens of glide-bomb carriers, Su-34s, (out of 100 in service) in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base just 160km from #Ukraine. The Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire ATACMs at the base. The US said no
www.forbes.com/sites/davida...

06.08.2024 12:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Europeโ€™s heavy-metal options European heavy-armour manufacturers are pursuing at least five different Main Battle Tank designs, offering users crewed- and uncrewed-turret interim options as the arrival of the next generation slips toward the mid-century.

As the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System has shifted its delivery date from 2040 to 2050, if not beyond, Europeโ€™s two main heavy-armour manufacturers, Rheinmetall andย KNDS, are touting at least five main battle tank designs to fill the gap
www.iiss.org/online-analy...

05.08.2024 16:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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French general wants to slash โ€˜unbelievableโ€™ red tape to move troops faster across Europe EU needs to up its game on military mobility, but itโ€™s no easy task, General Bertrand Toujouse tells POLITICO.

The French army, which spent past decades fighting in Afghanistan and the West African Sahel region, had not loaded military equipment onto trains for about 20 years. Train station managers at SNCF, #France's national railway company, were also in the dark
www.politico.eu/article/fren...

05.08.2024 13:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Britainโ€™s nuclear submarine software built by Belarusian engineers Fears that coding work outsourced to Russia and its allies could pose national security threat

Britainโ€™s nuclear submarine engineers use software designed in #Russia & #Belarus. The firm that outsourced the work thought to disguise the workers' locations by giving them names of dead Brits. Further defence capabilities could have been compromised.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08...

04.08.2024 12:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Bloomberg:๐ŸšจThe first delivery of the F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine

31.07.2024 18:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Small Drones Force New Thinking on Air Superiority, Slife Says | Air & Space Forces Magazine The Air Force needs to rethink how small, low-cost drones could change the definition of air superiority, Gen. James Slife said on July 29.

The US Air Force needs to rethink how small, low-cost drones could change the definition of air superiority. Small drones have become a defining feature of the Russo-Ukraine war, with both sides fielding drones & quadcopters for strikes & reconnaissance
www.airandspaceforces.com/small-drones...

30.07.2024 13:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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