Nah silver / metals were for me a live test of mental models as their outcomes had ramifications for my core (L/S eqs + STIR). Very small actual trading size.

Long a bunch of SOFR m6 and z6 as a safer expression of short indices or long VX (but have those too, in smaller size) for macro

Congrats man very well done

It’s CapEx exceeding own funding (will issue eq + corp debt) + stock buybacks by these (esp META GOOG ) guided down to 2019 levels in 2026 = huge liquidity drain from AI alone

Dubious phrasing re “fuck sex criminals”.

Pls fix

U mean KOSPI ?

Wow so far
precious metals xag xau Jan 30th 💣💥➔ crypto BTC ETH Feb 1st ➔ who’s next?

Quite a tight “crash sequencing”

stupid but is it :: or ≡ for the attempt at equivalency above

What if:

BTC peaked Dec 10 2017, ETH mid Jan’18. SLV:GLD 2025-2026 :: ETH:BTC hype 2017-2018.

SPY took the baton 266➔286 +7.5% in 6 weeks to 21 Jan 2018. Then drawdown bottoming w VIX Volmageddon 5 Feb 2018.

👆the right sequence analog + timing lag?

WIP - ought to work in the right macro now

Lesson w SLV GLD etc old - keep your head cool, look to history fractals + immutable laws of nature to guide… Complete the puzzle, 4D not flat 2D…

“The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.”

—Kahneman

forecasting / backcasting

Ah, such confidence… Warsh backed by Druck +Bessent who have both been MAGA but like the more reasonable kind. Married into the Estée Lauder $EL empire… Don’t predict, observe.

snatching Aubrey Plaza now.

Appreciated but here’s Aubrey getting carried away, just like she will be as my spoil of SLV GLD shorts

TL;DR:
I shall take in Aubrey Plaza as mine after this battle is over.

1- many would be hedging prod so caught short / not benefitting from price now

2- p.1 would be offset by longer term price rerate IF the mkt bet on current price levels as sustainable - obvi they don’t, so no offset

So yes, it’s interesting and confirms my thesis SLV esp

bsky.app/profile/fron...

a man in a suit and tie says it 's a wazee it 's a woozee ALT: a man in a suit and tie says it 's a wazee it 's a woozee

fundamental? Price spec driven now just as w those others. CBs not bidding. No dilution, fiat debase were the narratives there too.

"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not real.”

Yes memes famously only go up GME AMC BTC ETH MSTR TSLA

SLV

/s

+ MIAX moved their options chain on SLV to Closing Only - announced today. They process ~15% of options volume.

I tend to agree, wild speculation will break soon. Activity will get curtailed. Same as with any pure flow-driven bubble.

bsky.app/profile/nemo...

Prefer Facts>feelings. While the recent FX coincides w various neg sentiment, the DXY moves so far are within historic fractals and chart channels. No breakout yet

vs EUR JPY etc macro

(DXY=50.14348112 × EURUSD⁻⁰.⁵⁷⁶ × USDJPY⁰.¹³⁶ × GBPUSD⁻⁰.¹¹⁹ × USDCAD⁰.⁰⁹¹ × USDSEK⁰.⁰⁴² × USDCHF⁰.⁰³⁶)

Ok. I asked because he was smeared by DJT in his post. Ha

Any relation to Greg Goode of IN? 😛

a cartoon of a bald man wearing glasses and a blue shirt with the words ackchyually . ALT: a cartoon of a bald man wearing glasses and a blue shirt with the words ackchyually .

Tautological in that if X (DXY) is heading down then 1/X (metals, most directly linked assets) are gonna up in USD terms.
Same but noisier directionality for ES NQ stonks btw, esp the MAG7 due to export revs.

Work in progress for me as this move accelerates Sell US urgency but I’m mostly in US…

WorldCup2026 macro polit
So the proposed ESTA intrusive data collect 👇 is still pending pub comments thru Feb 9 2026. I guess we’ll see

ogletree.com/insights-res...

But Renee Good, Pretti + the creeping up # of dev’d countries’ detainees like this Pereira lower odds of US vol dampening into 2Q26…

Just to be clear the SLV GC etc causation more likely than not is DJT talking USD deval pretty much just when the metals turned (see his quotes)

bsky.app/profile/fron...

This might seem offtopic but I try to notice obsessed / autistic finance anons ever since that May 2010 flash crash caused by basement dweller Sarao )))

He immediately blocked me 🫨🫨🫨 no offense to them it was just peculiar

Bruh do u need a restraining order against that Angel dude who quoted this 8 times?))

Lumber of 2020-2021?? Odd Lots and a bunch of similar supply shortage generational narratives?

Ballparkiest shortcut of them all but daily move x 16=IV, today’s +10% so far x16=realizes 160 vs IV 101 so VX SLV still not-so-high

Just to add for today’s macro context, FRBNY did a USDJPY rate check here midday (here confirmed by GS trading desk)

Prelude to a coordinated USD deval, usually…

Much appreciated!