Charles Cavendish

This is your regular reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things that are good for you.

Much to consider.

www.ft.com/content/3382...

Of course China is a huge strategic challenge for the EU, India and everyone else. But turning as complex a society as China with its own mix of strengths and weaknesses into a projection space for American neuroses of decline is not going to help anyone handle China's impact on the wider world

At this rate, we’ll have Trump expressing sympathy for China’s feelings about Okinawa within a year

Noting that he wants to see China succeed, Trump said the United States would like to work with China and make more progress in bilateral ties. Trump said that he understands how China feels about the Taiwan question.

Elbridge Colby having another bad day

english.news.cn/20260205/41d...

Would you please call our HR team, grok pulled you as a match for our Lead Synergy Engagement Architect opportunity.

1 [Scene is a GREGGS interior. A lone MAN, the only customer in the shop, is standing at counter] MAN: Please can I have a sausage roll. 2 GREGGS SHOP ASSISTANT: Certainly sir [She pulls a leaver on the panini machine and WOOSH the man disappears through a trapdoor]. Whoosh 3 [The MAN appears through a chute in an underground bunker. A voice from off-scene greets him]: Welcome, friend 4 [We see the voice is of a military-looking resistance COMMANDER with a moustache] COMMANDER: You said "please can I have" instead of “can I get”… So now you're one of us. 5 MAN: W-where am I ...? [We see him looking at a hi tech UNDERGROUND MILITARY BUNKER - it has resistance vibes, and has lots of screens with maps etc] 6 COMMANDER: You've joined the resistance… ...against people saying things all American. 7 COMMANDER: We are an underground network of sleeper agents poised to have a right go at young people the moment they say "mom" or "bangs”. 8 LIEUTENANT [Staring at screen]: Agent 244 has just given a Zoomer in Halifax the “could/couldn't care less" speech, sir COMMANDER: Very good 9 [Show the map of the UK with digital pop ups on it saying ‘GOTTEN’, ‘ZEE’, ‘MATH’ etc COMMANDER: You may have heard our name... We are... 10 COMMANDER: ...the Fight Against New Yankee Pronunciations and Americanisms Corrupting the King's English! 11 [Show the military command center panel. It says on the wall in big metal letters]: F.A.N.Y.P.A.C.K.E. 12 MAN You've called yourselves the 'Fanny Pack' COMMANDER: We didn't spot the acronym [/end]

This took me fucking ages

Haha, sorry about that, couldn't resist. Je vous prie de m'excuser sincèrement 🥺🙏

Evidently the AI-centric conservatives aka Big Tech claim yes, i.e. partially replacing human productivity by AI. I mean, it's not just a fringe idea anymore so there we are :(

If even Fico thinks Trump is not entirely compos mentis...

Might be related to Macron's (Feb 24?) nuclear speech

Swedish Gripens have been escorting Rafales on ASMP training missions for quite a while now, so the only noteworthy thing is the Swedish PM finding it appropriate to mention it?
Possibly ahead of Macron's nuke speech?

Bit thin on substance

Europe. As the NSS makes clear, Europe taking primary responsibility for its own conventional defense is the answer to the security threats it faces. The Department will therefore incentivize and enable NATO allies to take primary responsibility for Europe’s conventional defense with critical but more limited U.S. support. Central to this effort, DoW will work closely with our allies to ensure that they deliver on the defense spending pledge that they made at the Hague Summit. We will also seek to leverage NATO processes in support of these goals, while also working to expand transatlantic defense industrial cooperation and reduce defense trade barriers in order to maximize our collective ability to produce forces required to achieve U.S. and allied defense objectives. Finally, we will be clear with our European allies that their efforts and resources are best focused on Europe.

The National Defense Strategy implies, but doesn't explicitly state, that the US will continue to provide nuclear deterrence to Europe, even as it reduces its conventional forces.

How credible is extended deterrence without major conventional skin in the game?

media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...

Use the Greenland dispute to present the EU as weak, indecisive and dependent on Washington. Highlight European confusion and symbolic protests to show that Europe cannot defend itself or articulate a clear position without US consent. 4/7

"I should say so," O'Brien said. "For a moment there, I suspected you of the thoughtcrime of believing that Donald J. Trump, the president of the United States, would be willing to torch the country's credibility, set fire to its alliances, and tank the entire economy to acquire some territory in the North Atlantic whose name he could not even remember." The member of Congress sighed. "No, " he said. "No, you're right. We'd better do Iceland too. In case." He shut his eyes.

www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...

“.. The United States is being ushered off the international stage. History will remember that as Trump’s most significant contribution.”

@timothynoah.bsky.social
@newrepublic.com
newrepublic.com/article/2055...

"The US has never had a rival like China: its equal or more in technology, trade and military power."

Bronwen Maddox on the challenge posed to the US by China's rise to power.

Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4pHKSpH

This image was carved on the orders of an ageing autocrat to show an imaginary version of himself smiting his foes during a wildly exaggerated victory decades earlier.

It’s the kind of thing that unrestrained royal narcissists did thousands of years ago.

Thank you Finbarr, much appreciated!

Excellent and to the point! 👏

European foreign policy is a mess because national capitals claim its their "national sovereign" responsibility to do foreign policy. Meanwhile, Euro states tend to appoint weak FM (its rarely the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd job ministers want) and b/c of the weakness of their states. Its a commercial... 1/

"We can begin to talk about an era of US hemispheric imperialism, where it intends to dominate its hemisphere on terms that it sets."

General Sir Richard Barrons on the worldview guiding Donald Trump's foreign policy.

Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4pKbff0

Opinie | Europa heeft een onderschatte zwakke plek Geopolitiek: Europese landen zijn financieel enorm verweven met de Verenigde Staten, ziet Steven Everts, maar kunnen in Washington niet meer rekenen op politieke terughoudendheid en rechtszekerheid. O...

Another excellent piece by @sbeverts.bsky.social, arguing inter alia for stresstesting EU financial dependencies. www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

modern american politics consists of experts patiently explaining why something insane that people are talking about could never happen, followed by that exact thing happening

The Brief – Merde! The French were right all along In an era where might makes right, Macron's foresight doesn't win us any points. But we'd be fools to keep ignoring his rallying cry

The Brief – Merde! The French were right all along

Trump is making China – not America – great again, global survey suggests Exclusive: US is less feared by its traditional adversaries, while its allies feel ever more distant, results show

45% in Europe (EU10) see China as "a necessary partner", 51% say the same about the US. Impressive numbers.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

Thanks!

Also thanks for these mini threads of yours, always interesting

While figuring out a targeted response, the EU should not forget that the US has much more sophisticated tools, esp. in finance & digital infrastucture. Hardening against these and de-risking are urgent task.

Can you imagine Europeans negotiating with the US an Article 5-like guarantee to protect Ukraine against a future Russian attack while the US actively undermines the real Article 5 by threatening to annex territory from another NATO member?