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Andrew Kerr

@andrewkerr9000.bsky.social

Social liberal, software engineer. #UBI #LVT. May also post about defence and armed conflict. He/him.

651 Followers  |  2,368 Following  |  860 Posts  |  Joined: 25.05.2024  |  2.6354

Latest posts by andrewkerr9000.bsky.social on Bluesky

I think there's a comparison to be made between British reactions to growing prosperity in Poland versus in Ireland.

I think the latter coincided with and at least partly caused declining prejudice towards the Irish in UK.

Same may be happening with Poland (and Romania).

08.10.2025 16:17 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

*gasp*

05.10.2025 21:03 β€” πŸ‘ 3118    πŸ” 1061    πŸ’¬ 188    πŸ“Œ 140

The goal should be preventing minors from accessing inappropriate content without their intent and consent.

Any sufficiently determined teenager is going to find a way around any controls, and it's a mug's game to try to prevent that.

What are you going to do, ban SSH?

04.10.2025 11:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This was inevitable, and I very much doubt it will be the last such incident.

I've yet to see any convincing argument why mandating parental control standards wouldn't provide at least as much protection for minors, and they wouldn't have the same risks of ID theft, blackmail etc.

04.10.2025 11:16 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Suppose 1 in 10000 people have a certain disease, and there is a medical test that is 99% accurate. This means that if you do have the disease, the test comes back positive with 99% probability, and if you do not have the disease, the test comes back negative with 99% probability. It is wrong 1% of the time.

    If your test result comes back positive, what’s the probability that you have the disease?

Suppose 1 in 10000 people have a certain disease, and there is a medical test that is 99% accurate. This means that if you do have the disease, the test comes back positive with 99% probability, and if you do not have the disease, the test comes back negative with 99% probability. It is wrong 1% of the time. If your test result comes back positive, what’s the probability that you have the disease?

Probability you have the disease given the test comes back positive is 1% by application of Bayes theorem.

Maths rendered by MathJax, which claims to work with screen readers, so follow the link to the full article I guess.

Probability you have the disease given the test comes back positive is 1% by application of Bayes theorem. Maths rendered by MathJax, which claims to work with screen readers, so follow the link to the full article I guess.

Automated analysis of:
text using large language model
graphs (follows, interactions)

I'm sure Palantir could cook something up.

With this sort of population monitoring I particularly worry about the medical test paradox:

davidbieber.com/snippets/202...

04.10.2025 09:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

quick while the government is shut down let’s all switch to metric

01.10.2025 04:11 β€” πŸ‘ 14025    πŸ” 2821    πŸ’¬ 311    πŸ“Œ 175
Post image Post image

Terrible news that two people were killed in Manchester attending their place of worship at the synagogue in Manchester, with others seriously injured.

Community Security Trust @cstuk.bsky.social who do so much to keep Jewish people safe at faith and community spaces have issued this advice.

02.10.2025 12:40 β€” πŸ‘ 298    πŸ” 82    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 7
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The govt should find 100 small things that piss people off & fix em, such as…

Ta to Politico for the vid, at its Labour fringe event, I explained that as big changes take time, govts should also have a team focused on small winnable change.

What little fixes'd you want?

30.09.2025 08:22 β€” πŸ‘ 364    πŸ” 122    πŸ’¬ 69    πŸ“Œ 21

One argument in favour of prioritising Gripen is that it can fire Meteor, which has a longer range than AMRAAM, and therefore may be able to threaten Russian aircraft further from UA territory.

It's also designed for quick turnaround on improvised airstrips with mainly conscript ground crew.

30.09.2025 11:40 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

One final point - Europeans from countries with universal ID (most of them including many post fascist and post communist state) almost always find the British debate over it bizarre and irrational. Maybe that’s because…it is?

26.09.2025 09:53 β€” πŸ‘ 65    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 1

Half of those who wanted to reduce immigration polled here prioritised reducing irregular arrivals.

bsky.app/profile/sund...

26.09.2025 14:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I strongly suspect a significant part of the concern expressed about immigration (that is driving Reform) isn't about immigration per se, but the impression that control of the borders has broken down.

More a fear of lawlessness than of foreigners.

26.09.2025 14:29 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Ominous theintercept.com/2025/09/25/h...

25.09.2025 18:14 β€” πŸ‘ 64    πŸ” 27    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 8

I get the impression that some NI unionists aren't above bringing it up.

25.09.2025 14:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Second, even Europe must only appease Trump as a bridging tactic to a more self-reliant future. To defend itself in the 2030s, the continent will need not just cash but quicker, less consensual decision-making, perhaps outside EU structures, given the military clout of Britain (which is not a member) and the less pronounced fear of Russia in Spain and Italy (which are). The submission to Trump is only worthwhile if all this reform happens in parallel. The danger is that short-term trade concessions prove so fruitful β€” Trump said encouraging things about Ukraine on Tuesday β€” that it settles into permanent statecraft.

Second, even Europe must only appease Trump as a bridging tactic to a more self-reliant future. To defend itself in the 2030s, the continent will need not just cash but quicker, less consensual decision-making, perhaps outside EU structures, given the military clout of Britain (which is not a member) and the less pronounced fear of Russia in Spain and Italy (which are). The submission to Trump is only worthwhile if all this reform happens in parallel. The danger is that short-term trade concessions prove so fruitful β€” Trump said encouraging things about Ukraine on Tuesday β€” that it settles into permanent statecraft.

Can't say I've ever rated Ganesh, but this is a decent piece (except for the HS2 comment), and I respect him for admitting to changing his mind.

25.09.2025 08:33 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Tolkien explains why the Fellowship didn't fly the Eagles to Mordor
YouTube video by Asher Puls Tolkien explains why the Fellowship didn't fly the Eagles to Mordor

Tolkein addressed the eagles "plot hole" directly and emphatically.

This is the final word:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-Uz...

24.09.2025 19:49 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

#ActuallyAutistic journalist here! I have spoken to #ActuallyAutistic people for my pieces about RFK Jr., Trump and autism.

Here for @msnbc.com
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

Here for @the-independent.com

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...

24.09.2025 15:39 β€” πŸ‘ 96    πŸ” 27    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

It may have been a better show had it not been Alien branded: the Xenomorph isn't that important, rule by ethically questionable mega-corp isn't a novel idea.

It's not really about the aliens at all, but power struggle between mega-corps and between humans/cyborgs/hybrids/synths.

24.09.2025 07:52 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Alien: Earth thoughts:

Entertaining but implausibly silly.

Too many characters blundering, excessively convenient abilities.

Undoes the major Alien cosmic horror theme that some things are unknowable, unexploitable and uncontrollable.

24.09.2025 07:52 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Good grief, is this idea still going?

Some autistic people have restricted diets. This causes changes to gut microbiome.

Anyone who hasn't considered that shows their ignorance; anyone who hasn't involved the autistic community enough to know shows their prejudice.

xcancel.com/Autism/statu...

23.09.2025 15:47 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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For 56 minutes Sky News and BBC News interrupted everything else and carried a Reform UK feed live, uninterrupted, unchallenged. The stream spluttered, froze, pixelated - dozens of times - still they stuck with it. FOR ONE HOUR.

This is an editorial choice. No other party gets this coverage. ~AA

22.09.2025 11:01 β€” πŸ‘ 4857    πŸ” 1782    πŸ’¬ 364    πŸ“Œ 286

My Bloody Challenger 3.

22.09.2025 12:43 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Extending air defence into western Ukraine, with air defence or manned jets, well behind front lines, would push back in a way that is very unlikely to result in NATO personnel killing Russians or vice versa.

And would help save Ukrainian lives, and preserve its industry.

21.09.2025 02:42 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I do not envy the position of responsibility of those who must decide, in real time, how to respond to this.

21.09.2025 02:20 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The Land (song) - Wikipedia

The Land, its never had any kind of official status in the Lib Dems afaik; it's a Georgist anthem about land ownership and land value taxation, not nationalism; and Glee Club always plays it.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lan...

20.09.2025 12:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

No, of course not.

Russia is going to keep pushing until NATO fails or pushes back.

But we shouldn't pretend that in 2015 Russia just tucked its tail between its legs and sloped off.

20.09.2025 10:57 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Is that really true of SAMP/T NG?

I would suggest that the major advantage of US kit is economy of scale, except for a few select capabilities like stealth.

And economies of scale can be addressed by joint procurement.

20.09.2025 08:34 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Turkey 'sorry for downing Russian jet' Turkish President Erdogan apologises for downing of Russian jet on the Turkey-Syria border in November, Moscow says

D. Russia imposed sanctions on TΓΌrkiye until TΓΌrkiye apologised.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-e...

20.09.2025 07:33 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Stepping over lines, pushing limits, trying to do just enough to get an Eastern European NATO member to say they’ve been attacked and ask for assistance, so then Trump can ape Russian propaganda, refuse to send US forces, and everyone sees the NATO Charter has been rendered just a piece of paper

19.09.2025 14:36 β€” πŸ‘ 180    πŸ” 61    πŸ’¬ 11    πŸ“Œ 3

In post Soviet Russia, Turkey shoot you.

(sorry)

19.09.2025 17:26 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

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