Jean-Victor Alipour

We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving."

Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.

🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...

Kalendereintrag

Zur Stärkung der - na klar - Resilienz von Postdocs bietet die Postdoc Academy der Berlin University Alliance jetzt "Pferdegestütztes Coaching" an. Auf dem Workshop kann man seine Resilienz "durch direkte, nonverbale Rückmeldung von Pferden" stärken.

Update #2, RETRACTED: 15 months after we (w @ollefolke.bsky.social and @johannarickne.bsky.social ) submitted the initial comment to the Journal, we've noticed the paper was ultimately retracted. Retraction note here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

🧵Replication: Can refugee flows be lowered by reducing welfare? Agersnap et al. (2020, AER:I) study this in Denmark, reporting lower benefits strongly reduce migration flows. I reanalyze this paper, finding a much more nuanced result.

Grundsicherung, aber wie?

Ein neues Experiment belebt den Traum vom bedingungslosen Grundeinkommen. Doch es führt in die Irre, stattdessen braucht Deutschland endlich eine bedarfsorientierte Grundsicherung, die Arbeit nicht bestraft. Eine Anleitung zur Reparatur
zeitung.faz.net/faz/wirtscha...

How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits...

... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot.

Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit.

Economists typically say "not so fast"...

🧵1/n

People are willing to forgo 15-30% of their wage to avoid hostile work environments.

Women report a stronger distaste for exclusive workplaces and environments with sexual harassment and value hybrid work twice as much in the presence of sexual harassment.

Collis & @clemvaneff.bsky.social

Wow!

Three scholars at Columbia, Michigan, & Maryland just introduced a measure of the partisan leanings of employers in the U.S.

The data is constructed by linking voter registrations to online worker profiles.

VRscores capture the political affiliations of 21.8M workers across 2.6M employers.

Explaining the emergence and consolidation of right-wing populism: Part I Stylised facts, or what has actually happened?

First instalment of my substack primer on right-wing populism in Europe is out.
jacobedenhofer.substack.com/p/explaining...

BJPolS abstract discussing a scholarly analysis on partisan-motivated reasoning and its impact on political persuasion and discourse.

NEW -

Evidence Can Change Partisan Minds but Less So in Hostile Contexts - cup.org/3E7A4ja

"findings show that, in the absence of affective triggers, partisans were persuaded by both congenial and uncongenial information"

- @jinwookim.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

Formulating the regressor endogeneity problem using a novel conditional copula endogeneity model to capture the regressor-error dependence unexplained by exogenous regressors, from Xixi Hu, Yi Qian, and Hui Xie https://www.nber.org/papers/w33607

📢New WP w/ @borusyak.bsky.social

We derive the most powerful recentered IVs for formula treatments & propose an algorithm for approximating them

This approach yields *huge* power gains, relative to conventional simulated IV, when estimating Medicaid crowdout effects

Check it out! t.co/UPg2XQBefN

Two papers that made me realize that public support for antidemocratic politicians is more personalistic-cultish and less ideological than I thought

Kim & Patterson 2024: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

@noamgidron.bsky.social et al 2025: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans U.S. national-security leaders included me in a group chat about upcoming military strikes in Yemen. I didn’t think it could be real. Then the bombs started falling.

What happened when the editor of @theatlantic.com was included on Mike Walz's group chat

www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

This is an interesting story and highlights the poor state of digital plumbing of societies. With digital ID tied, e.g. to your own mobility data, entry- and exit records, biometrically verified digital payments, one can in essence create zero knowledge proofs that validate information such as..

We are very happy to publish the "National Elections Database," including the results of 1,023 presidential and 2,962 parliamentary elections conducted worldwide since 1946!
www.nationalelectionsdatabase.com
with Benjamin Marx and Vincent Rollet

At this point, it is obvious that it is not safe for scholars to travel the US. There are no easy solutions for conferences scheduled in the US this year but it should be cleary to everyone involved that they cannot just go ahead as planned.

It continues:

Most wealthy countries have an aging population and low fertility: there are no fiscal miracles. Closing the door on high-skill migration is, as we will show, a uniquely bad policy proposition.

Link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

This is a pretty remarkable set of results. I got fixated on adults in this, since it seems like a big change!

One fact that I discovered by digging into the original reports is that this masks some pretty interesting heterogeneity:

www.oecd.org/en/publicati...

Slowly but surely coming along: we have a new version of our working textbook on diffs in diffs!

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Chapters 2 to 4, which cover the set up, classical DIDs, and relaxations of the parallel trends assumptions have been thoroughly revised and are now almost finished.

Lots of talk on X today about rethinking the results produced by close elections RDDs.

So, I thought I'd drop a few recent articles about issues that arise in this space so that folks can have them all in one place. 1/N

Let me explain why I'm so confident that tariffs will cause higher prices.

Being able to drop a quarterly US GDP prediction by 5.1% from +2.3% to -2.8% in a single week is one of the most impressive economic developments in the history of the world.

Revisiting the rationale for place-based policies using a canonical urban framework with agglomeration spillovers, from Pablo D. Fajgelbaum and Cecile Gaubert https://www.nber.org/papers/w33517

Revealing real-time indoor air pollution cuts it by 17 percent overall, 34 percent when occupied. Lower-income households face worse indoor air pollution. A $1 subsidy for monitors has infinite public value, from @rmetcalfe.bsky.social and Sefi Roth https://www.nber.org/papers/w33510

Abstract: How does anti-immigrant rhetoric by mainstream politicians affect norms of tolerance? How does this compare to similar statements made by radical-right politicians? Drawing on experimental evidence, we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians. Subsample analyses suggests that this is because statements by mainstream-right politicians erode norm perceptions of right-wing individuals, while those by radical-right politicians induce backlash among left-wing individuals, who hold closer to the norm in place. The latter effect (backlash by the left) disappears when similar statements are made by mainstream right politicians. We argue that this difference occurs because mainstream politicians represent the views of a larger part of the population or have a higher status. Our results highlight the pivotal role of mainstream politicians in enforcing or eroding democratic norms, and that similar political statements can have different effects depending on their sender.

Very happy that our paper (w/ @dziblatt.bsky.social & E Dinas) has been accepted @bjpols.bsky.social .

We've seen the center right increasingly adopt far-right rhetoric.

Our experiment in 🇩🇪 finds that this erodes anti-prejudice norms *more* than when the far-right employs similar rhetoric.

1/3

Featured in the latest Digest: "Household Heat Pump Adoption and Energy Use"
https://www.nber.org/202502/digest/household-heat-pump-adoption-and-energy-use

Deutschland hat gewählt, und die AfD gilt als die große Siegerin. Wie lässt sich ihr Ergebnis einordnen, und welche geografischen Merkmale prägen ihre Unterstützung? @hudde.bsky.social und ich haben das AfD-Zweitstimmenergebnis in den 299 Bundestagswahlkreisen ausgewertet. Ein Thread. 🧵👇

Steigert Migration die Kriminalität? Ein datenbasierter Blick Ausländer sind in der Polizeilichen Kriminalstatistik (PKS) gegenüber ihrem Bevölkerungsanteil überrepräsentiert. Dies nährt die Sorge, Migration gefährde die Sicherheit durch eine vermeintlich höhere...

Pflichtlektüre VOR der Wahl aus dem ifo-Institut.
www.ifo.de/publikatione...