Sergey Radchenko

Damn. I got a medal from the Council on Foreign Relations, which is super exciting.

The Ukraine war pessimists were proven right this year As the Russian-Ukrainian full-scale war nears its fourth anniversary, Vladimir Putin looks confident, even cocky.

spectator.com/article/what.... I have a piece out where I assess where we are with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, almost a year on. It’s not a very hopeful piece.

America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine A bad deal is worse than no deal.

U.S. President Donald Trump “should not be in a rush to force a bad deal” in Ukraine, argues @radchenko.bsky.social. Instead, Washington should “exercise patience and remain on the side of the Ukrainians and their European supporters.”

Damn. People, somehow I finished a new book. It reads well too. So relieved. It's always good to finish stuff. Stay tuned.

Really perceptive piece, by two of my brilliant @jhu.edu colleagues, @himself.bsky.social and @radchenko.bsky.social.

Terrific piece by @himself.bsky.social @radchenko.bsky.social - another example of how 35 years after we hoped Russia would become more like us, Trump wants US to become more like Russia.

Trump and Putin share a craving for status. That’s why they both want to destroy Europe | Henry Farrell and Sergey Radchenko Liberal democracies view Putin’s Russia as a bully – and Trump’s US as an angry drunk with a bazooka. The response is pure venom, say Henry Farrell and Sergey Radchenko of Johns Hopkins

Trump and Putin share a craving for status. That’s why they both want to destroy Europe | Henry Farrell and Sergey Radchenko

Is Russia a threat? Revisiting Trump's NSS

Is Russia a threat? A few thoughts on Trump's NSS (where I serve a devil's advocate to myself and try to test my assumptions). open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine A bad deal is worse than no deal.

If the alternative to a bloody, grinding war is “the peace of surrender to Putin’s Russia, then that peace can wait,” writes @radchenko.bsky.social.

America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine A bad deal is worse than no deal.

Ok let's talk about where we are with Russia/Ukraine. My latest for Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/amer.... The key thing is understanding American national interests. Should be straightforward but, evidently, it's not.

To preview the conclusion: "This looks pretty bad for Ukraine. If this is the asking price (from the U.S.), imagine what they will negotiate it down to. Yet I worry that at this point, Zelensky, besieged on all sides, has very few options."

The U.S. plan: an analysis I work through the 28 points explaining the underlying issues

So, I went through the U.S. plan on Ukraine. Here I offer a point-by-point analysis: profradchenko.substack.com/p/the-us-pla....

On BBC this morning, with Catherine Barnard (Cambridge), and our wonderful host Julian Worricker. Talking about politics, sports, literature, art, and love.

If you’re in Italy, I’ll be doing three presentations there next week.

On Monday October 27, I’ll do a book talk on The Party’s Interests Come First: the Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping in Milan at Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

aseri.unicatt.it/aseri-2025-t...

What will make Russia a "contented" power? And is the price worth paying? An interesting discussion from the mid-1990s.

What will make Russia a "contented" power? And is the price worth paying? open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

Running the world *together* with the US? The historical origins of Russia's resentment (from newly declassified documents).

Running the world *together* with the US? open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I explore an interesting idea that Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev presented to the Americans in 1994, and why he expected the United States to help Russia in rebuilding its sphere of influence.

This is just gold.

Honored to interview President Yushchenko for my forthcoming book on the Russia-Ukraine war. It's important to understand the historical context of the Russian invasion. If we start in 2022, we risk missing out on the essential.

‘I’m leaving,’ Trump said. ‘There’s no reason to be here any more’: inside the meeting that brought Nato to the brink Former secretary general Jens Stoltenberg recalls the rollercoaster ride of dealing with Donald Trump – and how close the US president brought the alliance to the point of collapse

Holy smoke. This is something else: www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o.... If you read anything today, read this. Just ordered the book.

The collection of interviews will eventually be made available to historians (subject to permissions), though not in any foreseeable future. For now, the wounds are too fresh. But this work must be done, and it is being done.

Together with my brilliant RA Peter Sies (SAIS-2024) (R) had a very candid, interesting meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz (C). This is all part of my big project on the history of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which will eventually lead to a very big book.

And, as a bonus, here is the final paragraph that didn't make it into the oped for reasons of length.

I argue, too, that Europe should now step into the shoes vacated by the United States, which means learning to talk to the Russians through back-channels. This is important to avoid miscalculation and inadvertent escalation. During the Cold War, the U.S. did it all the time.

Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond | Sergey Radchenko Despite the cost of shooting down fighter jets and drones, small skirmishes remind both sides of the dangers of escalation, says academic Sergey Radchenko

I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Karaganov on Ukraine. A long-standing obsession.

Karaganov on Ukraine. A crazy document from August 1991. Speaking of the long roots of the current conflict. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

The Real Losers of Russia’s War: Ukraine, Europe and Russia Itself - The Moscow Times Opinion | United States President Donald Trump has a remarkable ability to be appear differently to different people.

#OpEd It is increasingly obvious that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia will be the main losers of this war. Trump's America is willing to let that happen, warns Sergey Radchenko.

You have been warned. Take-aways from the latest UNSC session.

On Substack, @radchenko.bsky.social recaps yesterday's UNSC debate, noting how Russian Deputy Rep Dmitry Polyansky trolled creatively by quoting JD Vance. Radchenko gives high marks to Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski's WWI allusions and no-nonsense threat to fire on future fighters.

You have been warned. Take-aways from the latest UNSC session.

"You have been warned." Take-aways form the latest UNSC session. open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I really had fun writing this. Enjoy! [Free access].

What has the European response been so far?
1) Blah blah blah
2) Blah blah blah blah
3) Blah blah blah blah blah
4) Blah blah blah blah blah blah

hat's the purpose here?
1) Show that NATO is a paper tiger and that Art. 5 is not operational.
2) Humiliate Estonia et al.
Of course, they don't actually want war. But they think their brinksmanship has political dividends (and it does).