Sergey Radchenko

America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine A bad deal is worse than no deal.

If the alternative to a bloody, grinding war is “the peace of surrender to Putin’s Russia, then that peace can wait,” writes @radchenko.bsky.social.

America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine A bad deal is worse than no deal.

Ok let's talk about where we are with Russia/Ukraine. My latest for Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/amer.... The key thing is understanding American national interests. Should be straightforward but, evidently, it's not.

To preview the conclusion: "This looks pretty bad for Ukraine. If this is the asking price (from the U.S.), imagine what they will negotiate it down to. Yet I worry that at this point, Zelensky, besieged on all sides, has very few options."

The U.S. plan: an analysis I work through the 28 points explaining the underlying issues

So, I went through the U.S. plan on Ukraine. Here I offer a point-by-point analysis: profradchenko.substack.com/p/the-us-pla....

On BBC this morning, with Catherine Barnard (Cambridge), and our wonderful host Julian Worricker. Talking about politics, sports, literature, art, and love.

If you’re in Italy, I’ll be doing three presentations there next week.

On Monday October 27, I’ll do a book talk on The Party’s Interests Come First: the Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping in Milan at Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

aseri.unicatt.it/aseri-2025-t...

What will make Russia a "contented" power? And is the price worth paying? An interesting discussion from the mid-1990s.

What will make Russia a "contented" power? And is the price worth paying? open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

Running the world *together* with the US? The historical origins of Russia's resentment (from newly declassified documents).

Running the world *together* with the US? open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I explore an interesting idea that Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev presented to the Americans in 1994, and why he expected the United States to help Russia in rebuilding its sphere of influence.

This is just gold.

Honored to interview President Yushchenko for my forthcoming book on the Russia-Ukraine war. It's important to understand the historical context of the Russian invasion. If we start in 2022, we risk missing out on the essential.

‘I’m leaving,’ Trump said. ‘There’s no reason to be here any more’: inside the meeting that brought Nato to the brink Former secretary general Jens Stoltenberg recalls the rollercoaster ride of dealing with Donald Trump – and how close the US president brought the alliance to the point of collapse

Holy smoke. This is something else: www.theguardian.com/world/2025/o.... If you read anything today, read this. Just ordered the book.

The collection of interviews will eventually be made available to historians (subject to permissions), though not in any foreseeable future. For now, the wounds are too fresh. But this work must be done, and it is being done.

Together with my brilliant RA Peter Sies (SAIS-2024) (R) had a very candid, interesting meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz (C). This is all part of my big project on the history of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which will eventually lead to a very big book.

And, as a bonus, here is the final paragraph that didn't make it into the oped for reasons of length.

I argue, too, that Europe should now step into the shoes vacated by the United States, which means learning to talk to the Russians through back-channels. This is important to avoid miscalculation and inadvertent escalation. During the Cold War, the U.S. did it all the time.

Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond | Sergey Radchenko Despite the cost of shooting down fighter jets and drones, small skirmishes remind both sides of the dangers of escalation, says academic Sergey Radchenko

I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Karaganov on Ukraine. A long-standing obsession.

Karaganov on Ukraine. A crazy document from August 1991. Speaking of the long roots of the current conflict. open.substack.com/pub/profradc...

The Real Losers of Russia’s War: Ukraine, Europe and Russia Itself - The Moscow Times Opinion | United States President Donald Trump has a remarkable ability to be appear differently to different people.

#OpEd It is increasingly obvious that Europe, Ukraine, and Russia will be the main losers of this war. Trump's America is willing to let that happen, warns Sergey Radchenko.

You have been warned. Take-aways from the latest UNSC session.

On Substack, @radchenko.bsky.social recaps yesterday's UNSC debate, noting how Russian Deputy Rep Dmitry Polyansky trolled creatively by quoting JD Vance. Radchenko gives high marks to Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski's WWI allusions and no-nonsense threat to fire on future fighters.

You have been warned. Take-aways from the latest UNSC session.

"You have been warned." Take-aways form the latest UNSC session. open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I really had fun writing this. Enjoy! [Free access].

What has the European response been so far?
1) Blah blah blah
2) Blah blah blah blah
3) Blah blah blah blah blah
4) Blah blah blah blah blah blah

hat's the purpose here?
1) Show that NATO is a paper tiger and that Art. 5 is not operational.
2) Humiliate Estonia et al.
Of course, they don't actually want war. But they think their brinksmanship has political dividends (and it does).

The correct response to Russian fighters overflying NATO territory is *obviously* to shoot them down. The reason why this is important is good old credibility. You don't do it now, you signal to the other side that you are afraid; therefore, they will do it again and again.

19th time lucky. Proposed EU sanctions and the limits of European policy.

19th time lucky. open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... I go over the 19th EU sanctions package to see if it's the real game changer we all hope it is (spoiler: it isn't).

When you slide into fascism, is there a sign at the bottom that says: "Welcome to FASCISM. You have arrived"? Asking for a friend.

China and Russia sign more deals, but Beijing keeps the upper hand Russia and China deepened their “no limits” friendship, but Vladimir Putin didn’t get everything he wanted, underscoring his junior status in the partnership.

👤 @radchenko.bsky.social on China’s financial backing of Russia:

“These reports suggest a new level of assertiveness on the part of the Chinese, an almost brazen willingness to deal with major Russian state entities despite sanctions risks.”

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Russia is escalating exactly as predicted; we are still reacting. The EU needs a Russia strategy. Much more to do, but here’s a start.
⬇️ w/ @radchenko.bsky.social

3) And of course it's just not doing enough to support Ukraine.
- Confiscate the frozen Russian assets.
- Provide more and better weapons.

2) Europe is not doing what it should be doing:
- Using its economic leverage to negotiate with the Russians.
- Induce capital flight and brain drain from Russia.
- Do what the U.S. does in relation to Russia's neighbors: empower them against Russia.

Europe’s Delayed Reckoning With Russia A plan to beat the Kremlin on its own terms.

Veronica Anghel and yours truly have a piece in Foreign Affairs on Europe's harebrained policy towards Russia. foreignaffairs.com/russia/europ.... Some key points:
1) Europe does not have a Russian strategy. In fact, it seems Europe cannot even think strategically.