Stijn Carton

4.6 Billion Years On, the Sun Is Having a Moment In the past two years, without much notice, solar power has begun to truly transform the world’s energy system.

Globally, roughly a third more power is being generated from the sun this spring than last. If this exponential rate of growth can continue, we will soon live in a very different world, @billmckibben.bsky.social writes.

Gas boilers now biggest source of air pollution in central London Toxin levels from cars, buses and lorries have fallen significantly in recent years because of the capital’s congestion charge and ultra-low emission zone

I’m in The Times today:

“While transport emissions have dropped, the vast majority of homes still rely on gas heating, which emits harmful nitrogen oxides.”

www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

In a new @forumenergii.bsky.social report @maciekjakubik.bsky.social, @zaniewicz.bsky.social, @keliauskaite.bsky.social , Szymon Kardas and I argue that Europe needs a profound rethink of its energy security strategy:
www.forum-energii.eu/en/download/...

Some highlights in the thread 1/14

This supports a growing body of analysis indicating the EU is developing billions in stranded fossil gas assets.

And a reminder that these are the kind of LNG companies the EU wants member-states to throw public money at with its "affordable energy" plan ...

100%. The commission should update its RePower EU plan to cut dependency on both US and Russian gas. Fortunately the solution is one and the same - European clean energy deployment

The Action Plan text is available here: energy.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...

The leaked draft read "EU joint purchasing power
should be harnessed, by exploring the option of longer-term contractual engagements to make
prices more stable, whereby the EU and/or Member States accompany EU importers in investing
directly in export infrastructure abroad..." (2/4)

We asked an oil lobbyist what to do about anything and you'll never guess what he said!

Dismantling the EU’s flawed equity LNG plan HOT TAKE: The EU wants to gamble taxpayer money on US LNG at the worst possible moment

A brilliant piece by Seb Kennedy - laying out why it would be foolish for the EU to throw taxpayer money at LNG export terminals

Dismantling the EU’s flawed equity LNG plan www.energyflux.news/p/dismantlin...

EU eyes funding foreign LNG projects to lower prices, draft plan reveals A document seen by POLITICO shows Brussels is exploring whether to back overseas fossil fuel infrastructure amid trade talks with the U.S.

Would have thought we had learned the lessons from 2022, but apparently not... A great way to undermine EU credibility on climate internationally while achieving absolutely nothing on lowering the cost of gas for EU consumers in any sort of meaningful time frame.

Decisions on UK hydrogen heat Hydrogen will play a crucial role in decarbonising power and some heavy industry. However, hydrogen is a poor option for domestic heating and would substantially increase consumer bills relative to ot...

Is 2025 the end of the road for hydrogen boilers?

I certainly hope so. My new briefing today looks at hydrogen heating - and why Labour needs to rule it out ASAP if they want to keep energy bills down.

🧵

www.e3g.org/publications... 🔌💡

Tackling speculation in the TTF might be something that could deliver quick wins. No idea how you'd go about that but Seb Kennedy and others have reported on how hedge funds and others are basically playing casino with Europe's gas markets and how that is driving prices higher.

EU debates return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine peace deal Advocates say reopening pipelines could help settlement with Moscow and cut energy costs

Genuinely bad news - EU debating return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine peace deal

First instance of the EU's competitiveness and security agendas coming into conflict

Good scoop by @henryjfoy.ft.com

www.ft.com/content/a19a...

This is actually really bad reporting by POLITICO. The requirement for 2027 is only for exporting companies to meet a reporting obligation on methane in their supply chain. Any potential fines for not reporting would be for importers and entirely at discretion of national authorities(not "Brussels")

Europe’s Summer Will Bring Worries About Next Winter’s Gas The higher-for-longer outlook for prices just got a bit higher and longer.

Three years+ of these headlines now. Nice to see we've moved on from Europe having to fight Asia to death over LNG supply to....oh wait.

Like the last three years, my prediction is this ages like a glass of milk, behind a radiator, half filled with tinned tuna.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Yes, the EU are slow-walking ending dependency on Russian gas and there is an uptick in RU LNG imports, but it should be noted that we are now down to the last 2 sources of supply (UA transit ended Jan 1st). An EU ban on RU LNG in 2025 would still put it well ahead of its self imposed 2027 deadline.

Let’s not kid ourselves:

Europe still buys a lot of Russian gas.

Russian LNG accounted for 20 per cent of the EU’s overall imports in 2024.

The only way to sustainably drive out Russian gas is to accelerate renewable energy buildout, electrification and energy efficiency.

‘Unfettered’ Gas Exports Would Harm U.S. Economy, Energy Secretary Warns (Gift Article) Jennifer Granholm said a new analysis showed that the continued pace of exports was “neither sustainable nor advisable.”

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said a new analysis showed that the continued pace of US LNG exports was “neither sustainable nor advisable,” according to a letter obtained by Lisa Friedman and Coral Davenport: www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/c... 🔌💡

Putin abandons Arctic gas production as sanctions bite Collapse in demand for Russian fuel leaves world’s largest LNG plant redundant

Big win for Western sanctions if true.

Shipping green hydrogen to Germany is unviable strategy for basic industry decarbonisation - report

Today's #HydrogenSoufflé is brought to you by #Germany: "Importing green hydrogen via ships is not a viable strategy for the decarbonisation of Germany’s steel and chemical industries, government-funded Ariadne energy transition research alliance has warned."
www.cleanenergywire.org/news/shippin...

Electrification: A crucial step towards industrial decarbonisation Currently, only 3% of industrial heat processes are electrified, but studies reveal enormous potential. A full 60% of industrial heat demand could be met through existing technologies. The post Electrification: A crucial step towards industrial…

Electrification: A crucial step towards industrial decarbonisation

🚨DUNKELFLAUTE CONTEXT🚨

1. This is no **2022 Energy Crisis**:

# of hours German electricity prices over €300
2015 = 0
2016 = 0
2017 = 0
2018 = 0
2019 = 0
2020 = 0
2021 = 236
2022 = 2345
2023 = 3
2024 = 23 (incl to 13-Dec)

Gas price shock set to add to Europe's industrial pain Europe's struggling industries are bracing for a new gas price shock over the coming winter months, as colder weather depletes stocks, competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas intensifies, and the prospect of reduced Russian supplies looms.

Gas price volatility will remain a feature of our newfound dependence on LNG and much of the recent price spike is driven by financial speculation rather than market fundamentals. If Europe is serious about industrial competitiveness it should move at light speed to reduce its dependency on gas.

Next phase of European gas crisis *latest*!!!!!!!!

Storages, after a brief period, are withdrawing exactly like we would expect.

No need to burn your furniture, despite what you read.

Norsk Hydro drops green hydrogen investment Norsk Hydro (Hydro) is to drop investment in green hydrogen and batteries after citing challenging market conditions.

Today's #HydrogenSoufflé is brought to you by Norsk Hydro. It turns out that there are more promising ways to decarbonise aluminium production, even in a country with endless renewable electricity and a storied role in the history of electrolysis.
www.gasworld.com/story/norsk-...

Europe needs to decommission gas infrastructure as demand plummets - Gas Outlook A new paper argues that governments need to minimise investment in gas infrastructure and plan for decommissioning.

Which European cities have announced to decommission the gas grid or parts of it?

Wien, Hamburg, Stuttgart, Mannheim, München, Basel, Zurich, Winterthur - the list goes on.

Much more of this to come.

A summary of our research: gasoutlook.com/analysis/eur...

Will Hydrogen be the new heating source for buildings? The answer based on a meta review of 54 studies is no. Compared to heat pumps or district heating with heat pumps, it is more expensive. 🧪🔌💡 a 🧵

EU should avoid trade war with Trump by buying more U.S. goods, Lagarde says ECB president Christine Lagarde said EU leaders should avoid entering a trade war and seek to negotiate with Trump instead

Baffling to see the head of the ECB, the principal guardian against inflation in the EU, arguing in favour of the bloc increasing its already high dependency on American LNG to placate Trump. The last time the EU handed the keys to its gas market to a tinpot dictator things didn't exactly go well.