Jackson Taylor

#AFCChampionship
#Bills at #Chiefs

Key Matchups:
BUF: Do not beat yourself. Josh needs to play like an MVP to put this one out of reach

KC: Lean on Playoff Mahomes and Kelce. Hope Josh Allen is spooked by his playoff boogeyman

#NFCChampionship
#Commanders at #Eagles

Key Matchups:
WAS: Make Hurts beat you with his arm and capitalize on mistakes. Hope Jayden Daniels' magic isn't done

PHI: Press your advantage in the run game on both sides of the ball. Can't afford to fall behind early like the Lions

Opponent-Adjusted EWMA EPA/play matchups for the Conference Championship games chronologically 🧵👇

Almost all the worst mistakes were definitely self-inflicted. But there were a few where a Bill made a great play (e.g. Bernard punch fumble on Andrews, Milano batted ball on 2pt conversion attempt) or they were on the wrong side of a questionable call (e.g. Coleman PI)

#Bills at #Ravens

The Ravens had multiple chances to win this game, but just made too many costly mistakes, many of which were self-inflicted

Top EPA plays:
BLT: Jackson to Bateman 42yd pass
BUF: Hamlin strip sack and Miller 39 yd recovery

#Rams at #Eagles

Playoff Stafford would not go quietly, but the Eagles (more specifically Saquon and Jalen Carter) did just enough in the 4th quarter to win this one

Top EPA plays:
LA: Gallimore sack for a safety
PHI: Carter forced fumble and Rodgers 40yd fumble recovery

#Commanders at #Lions

The big surprise from the weekend. It's hard to win any game when turning the ball over 5 times, but especially against a QB who seems to be transcending. Look at that 2nd Quarter 👀🔥

Top EPA plays:
WAS: Martin 40yd pick-6
DET: WAS 44yd FG miss

#Texans at #Chiefs

The Texans made it interesting a few times, but Mahomes and the Chiefs put them away in the 4th quarter

Top EPA plays:
HST: 3rd and 11 Stroud to Schultz 18yd pass
KC: 63 yd opening kick-off return (+13yd penalty)

EPA Game Flows from this weekend's Divisional Round games (chronologically) 🧵👇

How did the Wild Card Weekend go for your favorite team?

#Vikings at #Rams

Vikings were within striking distance until the Jared Verse 57yd scoop-and-score. After that, they never recovered

Top Plays:
MIN: 15yd roughing the kicker (yikes)
LA: Verse 57yd scoop-and-score

#Commanders at #Buccaneers

Undoubtedly the game of the weekend, with both sides throwing haymakers throughout. Washington with another ridiculous, nail-biting win

Top Plays:
WAS: Mayfield fumble, Wagner recovery
TB: 4th and 2 stop at their own 20

#Packers at #Eagles

The Packers almost got back into this game a few times (see the spikes upwards), but couldn't get out of their own way with costly turnovers and a missed FG

Top Plays:
GB: Jacobs 31yd rush to set up GB's only TD
PHI: Mitchell game-sealing INT

#Broncos at #Bills

Broncos started with a bang but the Bills settled in and ran away with this one in the 2nd half

Top Plays:
DEN: Nix to Franklin 43yd TD pass
BUF: Allen to Samuel 55yd TD pass

#Steelers at #Ravens

One-sided from start to finish. Ravens took care of business despite a valiant 3rd quarter surge from the Steelers

Top Plays:
PIT: Wilson to Jefferson 30yd TD pass
BLT: Henry 44yd TD rush

#Chargers at #Texans

Chargers had control early, but Texans took over just before halftime and never looked back

Top Plays:
LA: Herbert to McConkey 86yd TD pass🔥
HST: Murray 38yd Pick-6

EPA Game Flows from this weekend's Wild Card games (chronologically) 🧵👇

Interesting conversation I had with @jacktaystats.bsky.social (Dir. of Data @fieldvisionmi.bsky.social) after watching the Vikings-Lions game.

Sam Darnold is the #1 QB in Threat (min 100 snaps) vs. the blitz.

But his 4 worst games against pressure have come in W15, W16, & W18.

Not a good trend...

#Saints at #Packers

#Buccaneers at #Cowboys

#49ers at #Dolphins

#Jaguars at #Raiders

#Patriots at #Bills

#Vikings at #Seahawks

#Eagles at #Commanders

#Titans at #Colts

#Rams at #Jets

#Lions at #Bears

#Cardinals at #Panthers

#Giants at #Falcons