Ross O'Connor

The Real Risk After New START Isn’t Arms Racing Without the treaty, nuclear forces will become hard to verify and harder to trust.

My latest in FP, on the risks of New START's demise and the problem with focusing too much on numbers in a new technological era. Gift link:
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/09/n...

I highly suspect Detroit’s Maroun family, who own the competing Ambassador Bridge to have a hand in this. They have spent 20 years lobbying against the new bridge to maintain their monopoly on one of the world’s busiest border crossings.

Howe Dumb Trump threatens the Gordie Howe International Bridge, dumping on Canada (and Michigan) again.

This is so idiotic that words fail me. Fortunately they did not fail @ronfournier.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/convulsi...

Canada fully paid for the new Detroit Windsor Bridge because the U.S. refused to. Now Trump is seeking half US ownership. I'm sure he thinks this is genius but it's actually extortion.

La Marine plaide pour une base navale en terre francophone Le vice-amiral Angus Topshee estime aussi que le Canada a besoin de plus de navires pour sécuriser son littoral.

« La réalité, c’est que la Marine n’a pas de base opérationnelle au Québec ou dans un endroit francophone au Canada », estime le vice-amiral Angus Topshee en entrevue avec Le Devoir. Avec l’augmentation des dépenses dans le secteur de la défense, il serait peut-être temps selon lui d'y remédier.

Bonne idée. Une base navale au Québec aurait des avantages stratégiques pour une marine croissante et serait bien reçue dans le golfe du Saint Laurent.

www.ledevoir.com/auteur/mathi...

USAF F35s operate out of Alaska.

We'd have to see the per unit cost, and the build in Canada premium, for Gripens. F35 has a low per unit cost owing to economies of scale.

I suspect this whole review is about leverage, yes.

YouTube video by Harvard Kennedy School Harvard professor: Mark Carney's speech was a big deal

Harvard Kennedy School professor @stephenwalt.bsky.social argues how Carney's speech was important and explains the international dynamics that have lead Canada and other middle powers to seek more autonomy in their own defense and economic ties.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=62rU...

Open Source Windows on China's Nuclear Forces, Policy and Strategy

Next week: "Open Source Windows on China's Nuclear Forces, Policy and Strategy" with Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social

RSVP here⤵️
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/open-...

Richard Shimooka: A mixed F-35/Gripen fleet will fail us in every way The Gripen is less capable, more expensive and still reliant on U.S. production

To add to what Richard wrote here about the demerits of a mixed fighter fleet, I would point out that no ally or partner that Canada has--aside from Sweden--wants us to renege on a procurement contract and settle for a lesser capability.
ca.news.yahoo.com/richard-shim...

Just love this. Superb speech.

Rappel: à travers sa participation au programme Manhattan & les installations de Chalk River, le Canada avait jadis accumulé une grosse expertise nucléaire notamment le retraitement du combustible irradié avec l'équipe des atomistes français (cf Bertrand Goldschmidt, inventeur du procédé PUREX)

Conclusion: yes it will suffer the same fate as the Third option. Problem is, that's not what people want to hear.

High praise indeed.

Korea's Neonsat-1A cataloged in a 535 x 552 km sun-sync orbit, confirming successful launch by Rocket Lab

STOCKHOLM — Sweden has had very early discussions with France and the United Kingdom about possible nuclear weapons cooperation, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has revealed. 
breakingdefense.com

Economic gravitational forces dictate that Canada and the US will always be each others top trading partner. That relationship is imperative to our economy and it needs constant tending to. However, PM Carney is not putting that in peril by concluding a minor canola for cars agreement with China.

The Balance-of-Power Theory Strikes Again Nobody should be surprised at how the world is reacting to Donald Trump’s threats.

Americans have lots to worry about these days—like losing their rights to a brutal set of autocratic thugs—but they should also be concerned by #Trump’s repeated and utterly foolish efforts to make other countries fear and hate us. See here: foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/23/t...

New Canadian flag ideas

Not gonna happen. Canada exports 3.8 million barrels of crude a day to US refiners. That would mean an increase of $2.00 at the pump. That would make the price of gas $5.00 a gallon in Scranton Pennsylvania.

Alternate take: Trump threatens to tax Americans an extra trillion-dollars a year.

So very well put. To put it another way, Carney told us at Davos what we wanted to hear and Poilievre responded with what we needed to hear.

Canada: just not peaceful enough.

TSCO

AF1 returns to DC due to "minor electrical issue" which for some reason involves not letting the press pool film Trump coming off the plane.

The speech definitely met the moment. Above all, it delivered a strong dose of realism, pointing out that the "rules-based order" has no clothes when the U.S. no longer underwrites it.

The contrast between Trudeau's wide eyed idealism and Carney's realist pragmatism is striking. Trudeau preached from the Gospel of the “rules-based international order” while Carney tells us (correctly) to stop invoking it because doesn't exist anymore. Bravo, and more please.