Hamidreza Azizi

Der politische Übergang in Syrien: Regionale und internationale Interessen Am 8. Dezember 2024 wurde in Syrien das Assad-Regime durch eine von Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) angeführte Rebellenallianz gestürzt. Die...

In Syrien findet am Sonntag die erste Parlamentswahl nach dem Sturz Assads statt. In einem SWP-Aktuell erklären @sinemadar.bsky.social, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, Muriel Asseburg, Margarete Klein & Guido Steinberg, wie die EU beim Wiederaufbau unterstützen kann. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

All concerned should use next 30 days to seek off-ramp before snapback. Alternative is outcome nobody wants, except advocates of war. Good thoughts on stepping stones to avoiding such outcome in this @theeln.bsky.social piece by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social 👇‼️
europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=24532

A narrow path forward: Iran and the snapback deadline By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the “snapback” mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes th...

Today, 🇬🇧, 🇫🇷 & 🇩🇪 diplomats meet Iranian counterparts in Geneva, days before an end-of-August snapback deadline that would restore pre-2015 sanctions on Iran. @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...

Deep Dive: ‘Nuclear ambiguity’ on horizon as Iran weighs options In the early hours of June 23, the United States launched a major military operation against key Iranian nuclear facilities, striking underground uranium enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz, and a c...

In his piece for @amwajmedia.bsky.social, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social assesses Iran’s options after the war with Israel - and how Tehran could use nuclear ambiguity to buy time, preserve its leverage, and quietly recalibrate.

Read the full article👇
amwaj.media/en/article/d...

Spoke with CNN on what the recent war with #Israel revealed about the shortcomings in #Iran‘s military strategy and how likely the Islamic Republic will try to fix them. | Hamidreza Azizi Spoke with CNN on what the recent war with #Israel revealed about the shortcomings in #Iran‘s military strategy and how likely the Islamic Republic will try to fix them.

Im Interview mit CNN äußerte sich @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social zu den Implikationen des jüngsten Krieges mit Israel für die strategische Ausrichtung des Iran. Dabei analysierte er Defizite in der iranischen Militärdoktrin und die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Anpassungen.👇
www.linkedin.com/posts/hamidr...

How Iran Is Calculating Its War with Israel Facing a massive attack on its homeland, the Islamic Republic is in survival mode. Its war-time decision-making reflects this.

My new analysis for Middle East Council Om Global Affairs on #Iran's strategic calculations amid the ongoing war with #Israel
mecouncil.org/blog_posts/h...

Nice! Thanks again!

Thanks for your interest! 🙏

Everyone, please read this excellent assessment of the Israeli strikes by Hamidreza Azizi @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social.

I do wonder how the resistance in Iran would react to this, if it is indeed Israel's goal. There are few things worse than a destabilized and failed state.

This is a very comprehensive article analysing the rationale, strategies and possible responses by both Iran and Israel. Highly recommended. 👇

🙏🙏

This is by far the most comprehensive assessment of the Israeli strikes on Iran and their implications that I have read so far. Highly recommended!

Israel Applies Its Lebanon Playbook to Iran in Opening Salvo By targeting senior Iranian military leadership in recent strikes, Israel appears to be following a playbook focused on overwhelming shock and disruption.

Thanks. This is my initial assessment:
mecouncil.org/blog_posts/i...

6/ #Iran: @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social explores how Iran is prioritising the Red Sea in its political & military agenda by increasing its naval presence in the sea, deploying naval forces to conduct operations & gather intelligence in the region.

Trump’s Middle East Policy, Revisited In this Council Views, experts from the ME Council reflect on the past 100 days of the new Trump administration's disruptive foreign policy, unpacking what recent changes mean for MENA and how states ...

Trump’s return brings back “maximum pressure” on Iran - but this time, diplomacy is also on the table. @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social explores how sanctions and backchannel talks are reshaping US - Iran relations & why Israel might be the biggest spoiler.
📖 Read now: mecouncil.org/blog_posts/t...

A fragile opening: Iran, the US, and the high-stakes return to diplomacy Talks between Tehran and Washington are set to take place on Saturday in Oman. Hamidreza Azizi writes that much of Iran’s political spectrum is cautiously optimistic about negotiations, reflecting a r...

In this piece for ELN, I explore the Iranian narratives surrounding the upcoming talks with the US in Oman, why the location and format of the negotiations matter, and what to expect from the renewed diplomacy.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...

Running out of road: Iran’s strategic predicament Iran’s deteriorating economy is hit by new and tighter US sanction enforcement just as the Islamic Republic’s primary mechanism of deterrence – its Axis of Resistance - is weak.

The latest blog in our Clingendael series Iran in Transition is out now.

Erwin van Veen and I explore #Iran’s strategic predicament as it faces the threat of war, a deteriorating economy, and widening fractures within the political elite 👇

www.clingendael.org/publication/...

For some in Iran, Turkey is a bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises Poddavsnitt · On the Middle East with Amberin Zaman · 2025-02-10 · 24 min

In brief, Iran feels geographically cornered by Turkey & threatened by Turkey’s growing influence in the region. Check out this interview with Iran expert @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social where he explains the context.

podcasts.apple.com/se/podcast/o...

Der politische Übergang in Syrien: Regionale und internationale Interessen Am 8. Dezember 2024 wurde in Syrien das Assad-Regime durch eine von Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) angeführte Rebellenallianz gestürzt. Die...

Syriens Übergangsregierung steht vor immensen Herausforderungen. Wie die EU zur Stabilisierung des Landes beitragen kann, erklären @sinemadar.bsky.social, @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, Muriel Asseburg, Margarete Klein & Guido Steinberg in einem neuen SWP-Aktuell: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Hello Bluesky community! Welcome to the official account of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Follow us for updates on our latest research.

For some in Iran, Turkey is bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises The surprise fall of Iran's close regional ally Bashar al-Assad has dealt a huge blow to Tehran's so called axis of resistance running through Iraq onto Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's loss is ...

Worth listening to this conversation between
@amberinzaman.bsky.social and @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social on Iranian perceptions of this dynamic.

www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/som...

For some in Iran, Turkey is bigger threat than Israel as its regional influence rises The surprise fall of Iran's close regional ally Bashar al-Assad has dealt a huge blow to Tehran's so called axis of resistance running through Iraq onto Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's loss is ...

It was a pleasure to once again join @amberinzaman.bsky.social on her Al-Monitor podcast to discuss how #Iran’s threat perception of #Turkey has been on the rise since the fall of #Assad, as well as the prospects for long-term relations 👇
www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/som...

Was fascinating interviewing Hamidreza Azizi on the current and future course of Iran's Nuclear program. Especially relevant given the current state of regional politics in the Middle East.

YouTube video by ME Council The Future of Iran's Nuclear Program

On the sidelines of the Doha Forum last month, I joined @marcowenjones.bsky.social on his ME Council podcast to discuss the current state and future prospects of #Iran’s nuclear program - including what to expect from Trump’s second term
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpGB...

#Iran and #Russia are set to sign a strategic partnership agreement tomorrow.

For a detailed background on Iran-Russia relations and their growing partnership in recent years, read this edited volume by Abdolrasool Divsallar, in which I also have a chapter on IR-RU in #Syria 👇

Election Of New Lebanese President Signals Iran's Waning Influence Lebanese lawmakers have elected army chief Joseph Aoun as the country’s new president, ending a two-year gridlock in a clear sign of the weakening of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed political party and ...

I was quoted in this RFE-RL piece by @kiansharifi.bsky.social on the election of #Lebanon‘s president and its implications for #Iran & #Hezbollah 👇
www.rferl.org/a/joseph-aou...

How Iran Lost Syria A stable post-Assad future will require Tehran’s involvement.

In my latest for @foreignaffairs.com, I examine why #Iran didn’t step in to prevent Assad’s downfall, the challenges Tehran faces as #Syria breaks away from its orbit, and how it might adapt to a post-Assad era.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ir...

Thanks for your kind feedback!

How Iran Lost Syria A stable post-Assad future will require Tehran’s involvement.

“The United States should offer Iran a seat at the table during regional talks over Syria’s future,” writes @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social. “This strategy could curtail Iran’s disruptive influence in Syria and the greater Middle East.”

How Iran Lost Syria A stable post-Assad future will require Tehran’s involvement.

In my latest for @foreignaffairs.com, I examine why #Iran didn’t step in to prevent Assad’s downfall, the challenges Tehran faces as #Syria breaks away from its orbit, and how it might adapt to a post-Assad era.
www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ir...